MARKETS WEEKLY PREVIEW

SIDEWAYS WEEK FOR INDIAN MARKETS.

NIFTY had a dull week where accept TUESDAY and THURSDAY no major volatility was seen.
Although new highs were made which we did discussed on last SUNDAY,
but the lackluster PRICE ACTION at highs with absolutely no MOMENTUM actually leaves less scope for PRICE EXPANSION on upside.
Still we have been working with a target of 22,325,
but for some reasons INDEX has so far failed to achieve that target.
let’s see next week.

I have described this entire upmove as a TRAP and so far the overall PRICE ACTION have completely confirmed that.
here we all need to understand the objective of a TRAP!  we cannot have a TRAP for a tiny higher high above a prior high.
we so far have not even got a 1% move on upside above the previous high of 22,126.
so all said and done  as long as NIFTY spot stays above 21,800-22,000 higher highs are more likely.

MARKET MOVING WEEK ON TIME FRONT

TIME wise NEXT WEEK NIFTY would enter in its 49th week from MARCH 2023 LOW,
this is an important TIME development since this is happening on WEEKLY T/F.
DURING the WEEK dates of 26th 28th and 29th could generate peak VIBRATIONS.
26th specificlly because that’s an ANNUAL CYCLE DATE.
From 1st week of MARCH the overall intensity of MARKETS would reach at totally at a different level because on monthly T/F in MARCH all global INDICES would aline more then 4 CYCLES from various LOWS.
WOULD discuss this in greater detail in next weekly post.

U-S-INDICES reached fresh highs post Q4 print from NVIDIA.

Despite one selloff after another leading to increased volatility, the markets are currently hitting all-time highs as the speculative chase for return heats up.
“I am not a fan of Soros, but this market has the look and feel of the dot com bust of 2000. In a few short words, the AI investment phenomenon is feeding on itself just as the internet and fiber did in 1999.
If you have been following me since OCTOBEr,
I layed down a small possiblity of NASDAQ going for a BUBBLE.
I also said this at that TIME as well  that it’s easy to refer MARKET BUBBLES after they are BURSTED but very tough to call them in real time.
In DECEMBER when NASDAQ broke above JULY high the possiblity of a MARKET BUBBLE actually confirmed.

I dont want to repeat all those things which various X accounts are putting up on daily basis.
INDICES are more concentrated on handful of tech and AI STOCKS everyone knows that,
that’s an easy thing to do!!
let’s do something which is not easy!

TECHNICAL UPDATE

In my previous weekly UPDATE I shared the date of 20th FEBRUARY as an important CYCLE DATE.


I also posted very clearly that to hint a TOP INDICES have to close below the INTRADAY LOW of 20th,FEBRUARY.
MARKETS fell on 20th but failed to close below that days LOW.
GOING FORWARD the faith of this AI MARKET rally lies entirely on 20th FEB LOW.
Only a daily close below 20th FEB LOW would confirm a TOP of this MARKET at much higher degree of trend.
If you prefer to follow the trend then have patience until this happens.

On PRICE front PRICE-TIME-EQUALITY LEVELS for S&P and NASDAQ are placed at 5010 and 15,600 respectively.
As long as these levels are held higher highs are likely.
On TIME FRONT next week would be 50th week from 2023 lows.
So volatility should further pick up,
specificlly DATES of 26th 28th and 1st MARCH would be critical CYCLE DATES during the week.

so all in all an intresting week coming up.
see you guys next week with a weekly preview.
thanks for reeding and BEST WISHES for the week ahead.

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY tested the half way mark of entire upmove from 21,530-22,249 at todays INTRADAY LOW and then turned higher.
As I have been mentioning since 15th,FEBRUARY  it’s a complicated setup not at all easy to trade.
if I.T.
&
RELIANCE doesn’t pick up from here then again selloff is likely from highs.
I had shared a simple target of 22,325 on spot,
but it’s not happening.
still as long as spot closes above 22,000 or holds the print of 21,850 we still have to stay open for upside target.

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY as of now should easily have achieved our upside Target objective of 22,325 as we discussed yesterday.
but for known or may be unknown reasons it’s taking more TIME.
let’s see what TOMORROW have in store for MARKETS.
If MARKET avoids a GAP-DOWN tomorrow then target is coming tomorrow but its risky.
we already discussed on critical support yesterday which continues to be at 22,000 on closing basis.
since we have a MARKET moving EVENT tonight so better go HEDGED for TOMORROW.

NIFTY EOD UPDATE for 20/02/2024

NIFTY on anticipated lines continued higher.
in yesterdays EOD POST we discussed the near term PATTERN target of 22,325 on spot  which still continues to be a pending target to achieve.
As we discussed in SUNDAYS post from MONDAY to WEDNESDAY MARKETS could stay up,
the real test of this upside is due from THURSDAy onwards.
SUPPORT for NIFTY is at 22,000 on closing basis.
So this throw over move is likely to continue as long as 22,000 is held.

NIFTY BANK with todays upside may certainly have created excitement in majority of traders but during next 3 days that should again dial back.
HDFCBANK is our top pick for our short accounts in 2024 so in next few days we would certainly utilize this move.

That’s it for today,
See you guys TOMORROW.

NIFTY SETUP AS I SEE IT

NIFTY is stuck at highs so today let’s discuss the larger setup as I se it.
We already discussed the near term outlook yesterday.

For me most important part is even when NIFTY is at fresh highs NIFTY BEES is still 2.5% away from its record high.
You may ask what’s NIFTY BEES?

Today let’s understand NIFTY using textbook guidelines of GANN THEORY.

In his BOOK,
MASTER STOCK MARKET COURSE,
in chapter 4 sir GANN have discussed in detail on GEOMETRICAL ANGLES.
and within that chapter at page 22 he has given few very important guidelines on FORECASTING TOPS and BOTTOMS.
He said that Most MARKET run out in 3 important sections or campanes normally.
but in some cases there would also be the 4th section of a larger move which would mark the culmination and generally this TOP or BOTTOM of 4th section always triggers a major REVERSAL.

this 4th section is always very tricky and market goes through a very irrational phase specially towards the end of the move.
And currently on NIFTY we are exactly in that phase.
Not only on NIFTY infact for all major INDICES baaring CHINESE MARKETS we are standing towards the end of that 4th and final section of this upmove.

For NIFTY from june 2022 low this is the 4th reaction.
Let’s recall all those reactions in their order.

The 1st reaction started from June 2022 low and culminated at SEPTEMBER 2022 high of 18,096.
The 2nd move or reaction started from SEPTEMBER 2022 LOW to DECEMBER 2022 high of 18,887.

Note both this REACTION lasted only for few weeks.
So 3rd REACTION which is always an important move has to consume more TIME then 1st 2 REACTIONS.
and that did played out on expected lines.

3rd REACTION started from MARCH 2023 low and continued all the way till SEPTEMBER of 2023 it ended at the PRICE of 20,222.
So from there we got a REACTION which overlapped the TOP of R2 of 18,887 in OCTOBER of 2023.
Hens the recovery post OCTOBER LOW  in mid NOVEMBER gave early indications for the rare 4th section of the entire upmove,
The higher high above 20,222 in DECEMBER actually confirmed that.
So since then 4th section of the upmove has been continued and currently we are at the final stage of that move.

I have done these calculations on much larger time frame even if I do it on smaller T/F then also we can get the same result.
even if I count from OCTOBER LOW then also I would end exactly within the 4th section currently.

Well its getting too long now.
Was planning to include setup of U-S-MARKET here as well but short on TIME today.
Would include them later probably in sundays post.
Thanks alot for all the feedback on yesterdays post.
Couldn’t reply all EMAILS yesterday hens sharing this peace as a public post thanks again 👍