🔶 NIFTY Market Update – Key Highlights
NIFTY recently made a fresh all-time high but has been consolidating since.
The next major momentum wave will trigger ONLY when NIFTY Spot gives a daily close above 26,277
So far, this confirmation has not occurred, and therefore the index has remained sideways despite staying in a strong bullish structure.
This consolidation phase is expected to continue until a decisive daily close occurs above 26,277
Critical support remains placed at 25,650 (Spot)

⏳ Important Time-Cycle Dates
• December 4th – Critical cycle date
• December 9th – Secondary but important cycle date

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/11/the-final-verdict-niftys-medium-term-fate-hangs-in-the-balance/

The current outlook for NIFTY remains stable as long as Monday’s intraday low is successfully held. This suggests that a bearish trend is unlikely to develop in the near term and a rally is the most probable next move.
A clear bullish signal will be triggered by a breakout above yesterday’s high of 24,703. This is a critical resistance zone, spanning from 24,703 to 24,761. A confirmed move above this range is expected to initiate a sharp upward rally.
In preparation for this potential shift, we have significantly reduced our short positions. This strategic adjustment was made because the majority of our targeted stocks have already met or exceeded their price objectives. As a result, we will be maintaining a very low-risk profile on our stock positions moving forward.
From a time-cycle perspective, the next two sessions are crucial for a potential trend reversal. NIFTY is set to complete a 90-degree time rotation from its April 7th low on August 14th, and a 360-degree rotation from its September 27th, 2024 low on August 18th. We advise all traders to remain vigilant and manage risk effectively in anticipation of a sharp market swing.

“Nifty has consistently registered weekly lows on Fridays over the past three weeks, a clear bearish signal. Despite this, the index struggles to accelerate its descent, primarily due to the prevailing strength in global markets. The remarkable resilience of the S&P 500, along with the undeniable uptrends across European and other Asian indices, highlights Nifty’s significant underperformance globally.

This divergence could be largely attributed to Nifty’s weekly cycles, which are scheduled to conclude next Monday, July 28th. Once this time pressure dissipates, Nifty may realign with its international counterparts. Consequently, the upcoming week is absolutely critical for all global markets, especially the U.S. markets.

Should the U.S. market initiate its long-anticipated pullback next week, Nifty would likely swiftly retest its swing lows of 24462 to 24473 on spot. This zone will be the decisive factor for Nifty’s medium-term trajectory. For now, we maintain a slight bearish bias, anticipating a potential retest of these swing lows. Yesterday’s high will serve as a strong resistance level on the upside.

While directional trading currently holds little meaning, the NIFTY’s spot close above 25000 remains crucial, keeping major downside at bay. The trend remains sideways.

A strong breakout for NIFTY would materialize only with a sustained spot close above 25350. Conversely, no significant downside is anticipated as long as 24850 holds.

Similarly, US markets remain stable as long as the S&P 500 does not decisively close below 6250. A break of this level would signal a potential reversal.

For directional traders, patience is key. Wait for a clear break of these critical levels on either side before initiating new positions.

NIFTY’s Pivotal Period: Decoding Market Signals

“The NIFTY is in the midst of a very important time cycle window, from March 8th to March 18th. In past posts, I have been discussing this time window as a critical period for the NIFTY’s medium-term trajectory. Originally, I was anticipating a durable bottom somewhere closer to 21,700 on the spot index. However, the index has managed to escape that level for now, and this is an extremely important message the markets are sending us.”

“A failure to bottom within this critical window (March 8-18) signals a risk of extended downside, delaying the anticipated durable bottom by weeks. Conversely, a standard correction would have concluded within this timeframe.”

“The index’s current behavior strongly points towards a retest of the 2024 swing lows, between 21,100 and 21,300 on the spot index.”

“I also explored the possibility of a strong or medium-term bottom at the March 4th low of 21965, but unfortunately, that doesn’t fit mathematically. I will tell you why.”

“In geometric proportions, two line segments must maintain a consistent ratio. This means line segment A cannot become proportionally shorter than line segment B. I will illustrate this principle with a practical example below. Please remember this mathematical rule, as it will be crucial for our future analysis.”

“Let’s explore this further.”

“From the September 27th, 2024, high of 26277, the Nifty spot index experienced a decline to 23264 on November 21st, 2024. This decline represents a drop of 3013 points. Let’s designate this decline as ‘line A’. Please retain the value of 3013 points as we proceed.”

“Now, from its secondary high of 24857, recorded on December 5th, 2024, we draw another line, which we will designate as ‘line B’. The crucial point regarding line B is that, in the bare minimum scenario, its length must precisely match that of line A. Subtracting 3013 points from 24857 yields a value of 21844. While 21965 is quite close, unfortunately, it still falls short of the minimum required length.”

“Just as in mathematics, where 2 + 2 invariably equals 4 and never 1.9, we can confidently assert that a definitive bottom has not yet been established for the NIFTY index. Regardless of the current market fluctuations, we anticipate that this is, at best, a temporary pullback. Consequently, we expect further lower lows in the near future.”

“Given the crucial mathematical relationships that guide market movements, and the enduring nature of geometric principles despite market volatility, this analysis strongly suggests caution, as further lower lows are probable. We will maintain close observation and provide updates.”

On the NIFTY, I have been waiting for a daily close below its January low of 22,786 for further price expansion on the downside. Until we get that, the market will likely continue to bounce from this zone.  More broadly, the sell-on-rise structure will remain intact.

“In fact, on February 15th, I shared a post with my subscribers discussing potential setups for the NIFTY and the S&P 500.  I encourage you to give it a read.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/02/15/decoding-market-dynamics-a-transformative-week-for-nifty-nifty-bank-and-the-sp-500/

https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/31/nifty-bank-nifty-approaching-critical-resistance-levels/

“On January 31st, I advised my subscribers, in a published post, to consider short positions within the 23,500 to 23,700 range on the NIFTY spot index, targeting 22,800.  The index reached this target today, as anticipated.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/29/evaluating-market-outlook-ahead-of-the-union-budget/

The NIFTY’s short-term outlook, encompassing today and the coming days, hinges on a critical support zone located between 23400 and 23500 on the spot market.  A decisive break below this zone on a closing basis would open the door for a measured decline towards 23100.  Looking ahead, we anticipate heightened market volatility beginning around February 13th.  This expectation stems from significant cycle dates falling on February 14th, 18th, 19th, and 20th.  However, provided this support level remains intact, the NIFTY is expected to maintain its stability.

NIFTY broke below its significant support of 23,000 yesterday. However, the decline appears to be temporary for now. A sustained trade below 23,000 on the spot market is likely to drag prices towards the zone of 22,400 to 22,600 in the near term. With India VIX above 17, a one-way decline is unlikely. Markets are likely to head lower, but in a volatile manner. NIFTY is currently trading well below its resistance. As noted multiple times, volatility is likely to remain high until January 24th. Therefore, stay nimble with your trades. It is better to avoid careless trading. From here on out, it would be ideal to operate at lower volumes.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/15/nifty-navigates-choppy-waters-support-holds-but-risks-remain/

“NIFTY, as discussed in the 15th January post, 23,000 is a strong support and holding that. There is a short-term probability of a rebound towards the zone of 23,550 to 23,700, which is the resistance zone.

However, this shall only be a temporary respite; the medium-term trend remains firmly bearish. So, post this rebound, expect further lower lows.

On the time front, until 24th January, vibrations are likely to stay on the higher side, so it’s better to be watchful.”

“As mentioned in my Sunday’s post, the November low of 23,263 for NIFTY was psychologically important. However, more importantly, the zone of 23,000 to 23,100 is a critical support because it represents a 45-degree angle from its September high of 26,277. Consequently, on Monday, the index, as expected, broke its November low.”

“However, NIFTY has thus far managed to maintain its critical support level at 23,000. As long as this support holds, a rebound towards the resistance zone of 23,550 to 23,700 remains a possibility.”

“While pockets within the Indian market exhibit signs of oversold conditions and may trigger short-term rebounds, the underlying bearish medium-term trend remains firmly in place.”

“The S&P 500 has also filled its election results day gap. Further lower lows are certainly possible, but a short-term pullback may occur.”

“On the time front, for both Indian markets and U.S. markets, some very strong cycle dates are lined up from January 17th to 24th. Expect some wild price swings in Indian and global markets starting around Friday.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/13/niftys-volatile-descent/

“As anticipated last Friday, December 17th emerged as a pivotal turning point for Nifty and other NSE indices. This precipitated a sharp decline yesterday. Today’s breach of the 24,180 support level has unequivocally confirmed a significant breakdown, a scenario I’ve been highlighting for the past two weeks.”

“Today’s intraday low dipped below 24,180, raising concerns about a potential significant shift in market momentum. However, a decisive daily close below 24,200 is necessary to confirm a major breakdown. We await today’s closing price for a clearer picture of the market’s direction.”

“Should the market close below 24,200 today, it would strongly suggest a breakdown with an initial downside target of 23,800 on the spot market. Given the significance of tomorrow and Friday in the time cycle analysis, these dates will require close monitoring.”

NIFTY broke the recent consolidation on the downside today, but in a highly volatile manner.

Yesterday, NIFTY registered its first daily close below the December 9th low of 24,580. This timely breach suggests a potential southward turn. However, a sustained break below the 9th December low is necessary to intensify the downside momentum and trigger a more significant reversal.

On the price front, as discussed on Monday, the major support zone for NIFTY lies between 24,200 and 24,400 on a spot basis. A closing price above this zone is likely to delay the reversal process and could even trigger a rally towards the 25,000-25,200 range in the near future.

The upcoming week is crucial for the overall market outlook. December 17th, 19th, and 20th mark significant turning points for several NSE indices. The next 45-60 days will be a period of intense market activity and potential volatility for all market participants.

NIFTY remains range-bound, displaying a neutral bias. The anticipated reversal signals haven’t materialized, neither in terms of price action nor timeframe. Consequently, no immediate action is necessary.”

The index was confined to a 350-point range established during the last hour of trading on the previous Thursday. This consolidation was likely to persist until a decisive break above or below this range.”

Despite this short-term indecision, I maintain a bearish outlook for NIFTY. Even a higher high above 24,857 won’t alter this underlying bearish sentiment. This range is expected to break within the next three trading sessions.”

“NIFTY’s rally has paused. The 24,200-24,400 support is crucial. A potential correction may be on the horizon.”

NIFTY’s Predicted Surge: A Timely Bounce

I’ve been bullish on NIFTY since mid-November. I highlighted the 23,000 level as a critical 45-degree angle support, akin to a sturdy bulwark, which I anticipated would hold on the first attempt. As expected, the index respected this level and rebounded.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/03/niftys-double-edged-sword-a-risky-play-for-traders/

On December 3rd, I predicted that this rebound was nearing its peak and that future price action would be more influenced by support levels than resistance. This cautious approach remains valid for next few days as well.”

On PRICE FRONT.”

Due to the recent rally, NIFTY’s support zone has shifted higher to the 24,200-24,400 range. As long as the index continues to hold above this support, the anticipated reversal may take some time to materialize.”

“It appears the Nifty’s recent rally may have peaked on December 5th. While this is a strong possibility, we need further confirmation before drawing definitive conclusions.”

On TIME FRONT.”

“As I previously discussed, December 9th is a very important time cycle date. The intraday low of the 9th would be considered a key pivot of reference for confirming a potential reversal.”

December 6th also held some significance as a minor time cycle date. A sustained move below the intraday low on December 6th would signal a bearish turn for the overall market.”

“Holding these key time cycle pivots suggests a positive trend outlook for near term.”

I’m still awaiting confirmation of a market reversal, both in terms of price and time. Once this confirmation is received, we could potentially witness one of the most significant market sell-offs in the past three years.”

A Timely Reminder: Risk Management in Volatile Markets

“Given the potential for a significant market correction, now may be an opportune time to reassess your portfolio and consider risk management strategies. Stay informed, stay disciplined, and adapt to changing market conditions. Let’s navigate this journey together.”

NIFTY Hits Target, Potential Reversal Ahead

NIFTY today has achieved our pending target of 24,400 on spot.
With this, the index is reaching a terminal point of the larger rebound which started from the 21st November low.”

A reversal from this point would likely take more time, as such a shift is typically a gradual process. Significant support on the downside is expected in the range of 23,900 to 24,100. As long as the index holds above this level, a further decline may be delayed. Going forward, support levels will become increasingly crucial.”

Holding supports “We might see a short-term rally to the 24,600-24,700 range. However, I believe this presents a prime opportunity to establish short positions using long-dated put options. If my analysis is accurate, the market is poised to resume its downtrend, potentially with greater severity than the October decline.”

On the time front, as I have been mentioning for the past few days, December 9th is a very critical cycle date, so the intraday range of that date will be important.
Even December 6th is going to be a minor cycle date, so both of these dates have the potential to generate a powerful move in the indices.”

S&P 500: Price and Time Convergence, A Crucial Test

“Finally, on the S&P too, December 6th is going to be a major cycle turn date, so let’s see. The momentum cycles on the S&P peaked out on November 11th, so the recent high is not as bullish as it would have been. On the price front, the zone of 6080 to 6120 would be a strong price and time squaring resistance.”

The recent market movement in NIFTY has been intriguing, with a potential pause on the horizon. While the index has met the criteria for a minimum pullback, a target of 24400 still seems achievable.

Key Points:

“Yesterday’s high isn’t necessarily the peak of this rally. The real test lies in whether the current support levels hold. For Nifty, the crucial support zone ranges from 23,750 to 23,950 on the spot index. As long as this zone remains intact, we can expect further upward momentum in the near term. However, a breach below 23,750 could signal a potential reversal.”

From a time perspective, as previously discussed, November 29th is a key date, followed by a very strong and significant time cycle on December 9th.”

“NIFTY has performed exactly as anticipated, as I’ve outlined in my last two blog posts.”

“As I expounded upon on the fourteenth of November”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/11/14/nifty-50-technical-analysis-and-trading-outlook/

“And as I further expounded upon on the twenty-first of November”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/11/21/nifty-23000-a-critical-support-level-as-sp-500-cools-down/

“I previously indicated that November would be different from October. In October, we experienced a straight decline without a meaningful bounce. However, it wasn’t wise to expect an exact repeat in November. This market badly needed a decent bounce, and we finally got it at the right time.”

The 23,000 support level proved to be a formidable fortress, repelling bearish forces. The Nifty index, seizing the opportunity, soared to 23,700 and ultimately conquered our 24,100 target. Given this intense market action, a breather seems likely in the short term.”

Time Cycles and Future Outlook:

If the NIFTY index can maintain its position above 24,100, it could potentially rise to 24,400 and 24,600 in the short term. However, I believe this is only a temporary upward movement against the current downward trend. I don’t anticipate a major trend reversal based on my analysis. Instead, I expect another significant sell-off to occur after this brief respite. It’s important to remember that market trends don’t change overnight. We should let the market unfold naturally.”

The near-term cycle date is approaching on November 29th, and a more significant time cycle date is due on December 9th. These dates will be crucial in determining the market’s future direction.”

Stay tuned for further updates and analysis as we navigate these important time cycles.”

“Picking up where we left off on November 14th, let’s revisit the NIFTY and its current outlook.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/11/14/nifty-50-technical-analysis-and-trading-outlook/

On NIFTY, I still maintain the view I shared on November 14th. As mentioned earlier, the possibility of a decent bounce holding around 23,000 continues to persist.”

The rally from Monday’s low and the decline from Tuesday’s high have had no impact on our overall view. Our critical support marker remains firm at 23,000 on the spot market. As noted earlier, 23,700 on the upside is a very important level.”

A sustained trade above 23,700 would make the structure more stable, potentially helping the index rally towards 24,100 and even 24,400 in the coming days. Let’s see if our view of a potential bounce is correct. If so, we should also be able to predict a resumption of another severe sell-off after the anticipated bounce.”

For now, let’s closely observe market behavior until next Monday. Only a sustained trade below 23,000 would force me to change my view.”

Let’s dive into the US market!

https://ganninsides.com/2024/11/06/nifty-recovers-us-markets-post-election-outlook/

S&P: From Election Euphoria to Reality

“On S&P, as I mentioned on November 6th, once the election euphoria settles down and the FOMC meeting is out of the way, I expect S&P to turn lower. I also pointed out two very critical time cycle dates, which were November 11th and 14th. As we all know, S&P reached its peak on November 11th, and since then, the index has been trending lower.”

For short term

“The 5840 level is a crucial short-term support. Holding this level could keep the trend flat. However, a breach would likely reinforce our bearish outlook. Cross-asset indicators, including the dollar and 10-year yields, strongly suggest a downward trajectory for the S&P. Let’s watch closely.”

On the time front, the next major cycle date is due on December 6th.”

For medium term On the price front, the S&P still has to fill its election results day gap, which occurred on November 6th, to complete the topping process. That gap fills at 5780 on cash. Let’s see once that fills; a move towards 5660-5680 should be on the cards.”

Nifty reached our projected target zone of 23500-23600, as discussed in yesterday’s post. As mentioned, the possibility of a significant rebound remains strong.  On the downside, 23000 acts as strong support, a 45-degree trendline drawn from the September high. Typically, such strong support holds on the first attempt.”

Therefore, we anticipate a bounce as long as 23000 holds. In the near term, we no longer hold a bearish outlook, at least for the next few days.”

We’ll see. If Nifty starts to sustain below 23000, then next targets are much lower. However, for now, let’s not dwell on that bearish scenario. We are no longer interested in continuing with shorts.”

In fact, once Nifty starts to sustain above 23700, we would be looking for a rally towards 24100 and 24400 on the spot index during the next few days.”

Until early December, the Nifty 50 index is primarily driven by price action, as specific cycle dates aren’t indicated on the TIME front.”

For NIFTY, the 8th and 11th of November were major cycle dates. As discussed earlier, both these dates were significant for the near-term trend. Holding above the intraday lows of both these dates, we can expect a flattish kind of trade for this week. Only a daily close below both these dates’ lows would trigger a fresh leg of sharp decline.”

On the price front, 24,100 was a critical support. A break of that has eliminated the possibility of a bottom formation at 23,816. So, further lower lows are certainly due. At best, we can get a higher high above 24,537, but that too won’t signal a broader trend shift.”

Yesterday, NIFTY tested the 24,510 resistance level but was unable to sustain the momentum. As long as the index remains below this level, it suggests that the recent rebound may have peaked.” On downside The 24,100 level is a crucial support level. If this level is breached, a retest of the 23,800 and 23,600 levels could be on the cards in the coming days.” Given the current market conditions, high volatility is expected. It’s advisable to exercise caution in your trading decisions.”

NIFTY is experiencing the anticipated rebound, which began on Monday. This upward momentum is likely to persist for a few more days, provided the spot price remains above the 23,800-24,000 range. Resistance levels are at 24,510 and 24,800.”

Significant cycle dates for NIFTY are due on November 8th and 11th. Expect a strong price reaction around these dates.

Once this rebound ends we would expect further lower lows on NIFTY and overall market.”

U.S. Markets: A Post-Election Outlook.”

Regardless of current futures trends, we still anticipate lower lows for the S&P 500 once the election euphoria subsides and the FOMC meeting concludes. The next major cycle dates for U.S. markets are November 11th and 14th.”

What may seem insignificant now could make a lot of sense in next few weeks.”

NIFTY achieved our 2nd target of 23900 today. NIFTY’s decisive break below 23,900, as anticipated since mid-October, marks a significant turning point. Traders who’ve been short since late September should consider securing profits. While the current downward momentum is strong, a temporary pause at the 23,600 level is possible. A close above this level could trigger a deeper rebound. However, if 23,600 fails to hold, a decline towards 23,000 seems likely. Key dates for NIFTY’s next major cycle are November 8th and 11th.”

NIFTY Bank is a pivotal index for the near future.

To propel NIFTY towards 23,900, NIFTY Bank must provide substantial support. Private sector banks have exhibited resilience during recent market downturns. This stability is likely to persist as long as NIFTY Bank remains above 50,900. A breach of 50,900 could trigger a sharp decline, potentially targeting 49,600 and 48,500 in the coming days.

ICICI Bank’s upcoming results will be closely watched. The stock has met our selling criteria, so its performance will be a key indicator. While there are no immediate time cycle dates for the index, several private banks have significant cycle dates on October 30th, which could influence the overall market.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/10/18/nifty-breaks-support-bearish-trend-resumes/

“NIFTY successfully achieved its primary target of 24,350 today, as anticipated in my October 18th forecast. Consistent with our predictions, market volatility has intensified this week. Last Friday, I identified the 24,900-25,100 range as a strong resistance barrier. NIFTY’s attempt to breach this zone on Monday resulted in a sharp price reversal. “If the index remains below 24,800, it may continue to decline toward its next target of 23,900.”

NIFTY’s breach of the critical support levels at 24,750-24,660 has signaled a renewed downward trend. Despite this downturn occurring amidst an incomplete retracement, we can anticipate a somewhat bumpy road ahead. Therefore, I recommend selling on rallies towards the 24,900-25,100 resistance zone. Potential targets for this bearish move include 24,350 and 23,900 in the coming days. Additionally, we expect volatility to increase significantly starting next week.

NIFTY is still consolidating, and this consolidation has been happening with a positive bias. I expect NIFTY to continue this way for a few more days. If something goes wrong, it will likely be from the IT sector. Still holding 24,750 and 24,660 on spot. This pullback should continue towards 25,300-25,400 before turning lower. A turn is due in any case, but a turn after some more pullback would be more ideal.

As I predicted in my Sunday post, NIFTY is taking a temporary pause today, October 8th, a significant cycle date. If the market can hold today’s intraday low at the close, it could provide a brief respite from the severe sell-off that began on September 30th. From a technical standpoint, 24,660 serves as a critical support level. A breach below this mark, accompanied by a daily close below today’s low, would significantly diminish the prospects for a meaningful near-term pullback. However, if the market can sustain above 24,660, a decent pullback is likely to occur.

“There are three significant warning signs for Indian markets: 1 India’s market liquidation has begun. 2 Recent market declines have occurred despite lower volatility. 3 Global markets have not yet started their decline. I have adjusted my targets downward, and these changes have been communicated to subscribers.”

“Last Friday, we anticipated NIFTY to complete its current bullish structure by forming a higher high above 25,800 and a lower low below 25,377. This structure was activated on September 12th when NIFTY decisively broke through its critical resistance at 25,333. From that point, the market’s dynamics became increasingly intricate and intriguing. The rallies in U.S. indices on September 11th and Indian indices on September 12th shifted the short-term outlook for both markets to bullish. This typically suggests a timeframe of approximately 12 to 15 days. Consequently, we should be nearing the culmination of this short-term trend within the next 3 to 4 trading sessions. The market’s actions over the coming days will be pivotal for ensuring a harmonious alignment of price and time cycles.”

Technically, near-term support for NIFTY is currently at 25,700. This level of 25,700 was calculated by drawing a diagonal of a square constructed using the closing high of 25,940. If NIFTY drops below 25,700 on an end-of-day (EOD) basis, it could be dragged further lower towards its pattern completion point of 25,377. The major structural support would be at 25,250. A drop below that level might push NIFTY towards a retest of its September 9 low of 24,753. Therefore, 25,700 must break first, followed by the other mentioned supports.

Regarding time, September 26 is a key date, followed by October 1 and October 3. October 1 is particularly important because it is a price and time squaring date.

“S&P 500 Consolidates: Key Levels to Watch”

Lastly, let’s discuss the S&P 500, which has been consolidating since last Friday. As discussed earlier, there are no signs of weakness until it holds the September 19 low on a closing basis. Resistance on the upside is at 5,775. On the time front, September 26 is an important cycle date, followed by September 30 and October 1. Interestingly, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are exhibiting a similar intermarket divergence with the Nasdaq, reminiscent of January 2022. If the Nasdaq fails to reach new highs, history might repeat itself.”