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Geometry Favors the Bulls in NIFTY”

NIFTY: When Price and Time Speak the Same Language

NIFTY continues to respect price–time geometry with remarkable precision, and last Friday’s close was another textbook example of this phenomenon.

As I highlighted in my post last Friday, the move from the January 5 high at 26,373 to the February 1 low at 24,571 offers one of the simplest and cleanest demonstrations of Gann’s price–time squaring. The level 25,471 perfectly squared price with time, making it one of the most straightforward yet powerful applications of Gann theory.

What followed only strengthened the case.

The bounce from Monday’s low further validates that this was not a random reaction but a geometrically aligned reversal, reinforcing the argument for trend resumption on the upside.

What is especially interesting is how NIFTY has been reacting from exact mathematical levels after the January 5 peak:

The February 1 low at 24,571

The February 16 low at 25,372

Both occurred with near-perfect precision, and more importantly, the midpoint held on a closing basis. This is a critical condition in Gann geometry—and it was met cleanly.

What Does This Tell Us?

It tells us that the larger trend remains higher.
And when markets respect geometry this accurately, it usually means that the prior major high—in this case, 26,373—is likely to be taken out sooner or later.

That said, bullish structures often take more time to mature. Because of volatility and accumulation dynamics, upside progress is usually slower than declines—a point I had already mentioned in last Friday’s post.

Time Cycles: The Immediate Test

On the time-cycle front, I had identified February 17–18 as critical dates. For momentum to truly expand on the upside, NIFTY now needs a daily close above 25,828 (spot)—the highest high of this entire phase.

A daily close above 25,828 should accelerate the move toward new highs

Failure to do so would likely keep the index trapped in a consolidation band for now

A Developing Gann Structure: AB = CD

There is another very interesting setup forming within classical Gann geometry.

An AB = CD price structure is developing:

A → B: 26,373 to 24,571 (1,802 points)

C: starts from the February 16 low at 25,372

Projecting an equal move from point C gives a potential target near 27,174, which could unfold sometime in March.

For this projection to gain strength, NIFTY spot must sustain above 25,856 for at least one session. For now, this is an important level to observe from a structural and academic perspective.

Final Thoughts

Overall, the market structure remains strong and constructive. Price continues to respect precise geometric equations, which is never a coincidence.

One final point to note: tomorrow evening’s Supreme Court judgment related to Donald Trump tariffs could introduce short-term volatility if it materializes. If volatility does emerge, it should be viewed as a potential opportunity, not a threat, given the broader bullish structure.

All in all, geometry remains in control—and markets are pointing higher.

https://ganninsides.com/2026/02/13/nifty-at-the-midpoint-where-time-price-and-patience-converge/

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NIFTY at the Midpoint: Where Time, Price, and Patience Converge

When Noise Is Loud, Geometry Speaks Softly: A NIFTY Perspective

As I mentioned in my Wednesday NIFTY update, everything on the time and geometry front was properly aligned. What we needed next was price confirmation.
That 48-hour window was extremely important. Price failed to confirm—and the market responded in the only way it knows how: by snapping back a few points.

That, in itself, is information.

The Structural Shift

The move below 25,752, the 1×1 Gann angle, has changed the character of the index.
What was an extremely bullish phase has now transitioned into a sideways-to-consolidation structure.

This doesn’t imply weakness.
It simply tells us that time has stepped in.

Whenever price loses a 1×1 angle, momentum pauses. The market stops trending and starts absorbing time while preparing for the next alignment.

Why Today’s Close Matters (Circular Arc Logic)

Now comes the important part.

A close above 25,667, which is the circular arc level, would be significant.
If achieved, it would mark the first weekly close above the midpoint of its circular arc in quite some time. The last such occurrence was on January 2, 2026.

For those who understand market geometry, this is not a small detail.
A weekly close above an arc midpoint often reshapes the intermediate-term structure.

Let’s Strip This Down to Simple Geometry (No Arcs, No Angles)

Now let’s step away from angles and circular arcs and look at this through pure, simple geometry—especially useful for beginners.

Take the move from the January 5 high at 26,373 to the February 1 low at 24,571 and treat it as one complete shape.

Price range: ~1,801 points

Time duration: 27 days

Now apply the most basic rule.

Divide both price and time by two.

Time:
27 ÷ 2 = 13.5 days
Adding 13.5 days from the February 1 low brings us to February 14.
Since February 14 is a Saturday, Friday becomes the effective midpoint date.

Price:
1,801 ÷ 2 ≈ 900 points
24,571 + 900 = 25,471

So 25,471 is simply the price equivalent of the time midpoint—
nothing to do with arcs, angles, or momentum.

How to read this level:
As long as NIFTY holds above 25,471, price is respecting time balance, keeping the broader structure bullish.

Despite the Noise, the Stance Remains Clear

So yes—despite all the noise, we still have valid reasons to remain bullish.
Not aggressively bullish, but selectively bullish, just as we have been over the past few months.

We were expecting new highs, and we continue to expect new highs in the near future, despite all the drama around the NIFTY IT pack.

One timeless rule of geometry must be respected:
parabolic moves are never sustainable.

When momentum cools, price doesn’t collapse—it resets. And once momentum realigns with the trend, the move often accelerates sharply.

Patience for confirmation is the real edge.

A Word on the Saturn Transit (February 14)

There’s also a lot of discussion around the Saturn transit happening on February 14, with many calling for a mega crash.

Here’s a simple astrological perspective.

In astrology, it’s usually the first move that matters most.

Saturn entered Aries in late March 2025. Markets already reacted to that shift, which we clearly saw in the first week of April when indices corrected sharply. That was the initial Saturn impact.

Because of this, it’s unlikely that the same Saturn energy repeats with the same magnitude again.

I’ve been following tropical astrology for many years, and this is how I interpret it.
Right or wrong—only time will tell.

Final Thought

As an analyst, you can only take a reasoned stance.
As a trader, your real protection lies in risk management, especially during volatile phases.

If you’re right, money gets made anyway.
If volatility rises, discipline keeps you in the game.

For now, we stay calm, selective, and patient—
letting price confirm what time has already suggested.

Let’s see how things unfold.

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NIFTY IT Index at a Critical Gann Support: A Make-or-Break Moment”

NIFTY IT INDEX – Entering a Crucial Gann Support Zone

Today has once again been a heavy down day for the NIFTY IT Index. The weakness in the index began from February 4, and since then price has been moving lower in a steady corrective cycle. The break below the key 34,500 support confirmed that the trend had shifted into a time-price correction.

On February 4 itself, the index was already down nearly 6%, and the decline has extended further since then.

From a Gann perspective, the index is now approaching a very important time and price confluence zone between 32,500 and 33,000. This is not just a random level – it is a region where multiple price counts, angles and historical support structures align.

According to Gann principles, markets often complete corrective phases near such natural vibration points. That is exactly why this zone carries so much importance.

Right now sentiment is extremely negative, and fear is visible across the board. But Gann always taught that major opportunities emerge when price reaches key mathematical supports while pessimism is at its peak.

The focus from here is simple:

We are not trying to catch a falling knife.
We are waiting for the market to confirm its hand.

What we need to see is:

  • Stabilization around 32,500–33,000
  • Reduced volatility
  • Clear base formation in both price and time

If these conditions develop, it would indicate that the current down cycle is completing.

And if we are right with our Gann calculations, then the result could surprise everyone in the market – because a reversal from this precise zone has the potential to take the IT index back toward fresh record highs in the weeks ahead.

Once proper confirmation emerges, we will look to take aggressive long positions in frontline IT leaders like:

TCS, HCL Tech, Wipro and Infosys

Until then, the discipline is to respect the process of Time and Price.

Gann’s golden rule applies perfectly here:
“Wait for the market to prove the turn – not predict it.”

We stay patient.
We follow the levels.
And we act only when the signal aligns.

https://ganninsides.com/2026/02/04/nifty-it-crash-history-of-recoveries-after-panic-days/

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NIFTY – Poised for a Powerful Move

Nifty continues to hold an excellent structural setup. As long as the daily arc levels remain intact on a closing basis, the index is comfortably placed in bullish territory. From a pure geometrical perspective, there is absolutely nothing alarming on the charts right now.

The most important line in the sand is the 1×1 angle at 25,752. As long as this level is defended on the downside, the trend remains firmly in control of the bulls. In simple terms – if supports hold, the path of least resistance is higher.

That said, the next 48 hours are extremely crucial.

Friday’s close will be the key trigger. We require Nifty to close above 25,667 to deliver a strong weekly confirmation on the geometrical setup. If this happens, the stage will be perfectly set for an aggressive upside move next week.

On the upside, the 26,200–26,300 zone remains a major resistance band – a wall the market has tested before. But this time, the setup looks mature enough for a breakout. Once 26,373 is decisively taken out, the entire market structure shifts into a fresh bullish gear, and we could be entering a very strong trending phase.

Time Cycle Edge:
If current supports continue to hold, then February 17–18 stand out as the prime window for Nifty to conquer new highs. These dates align beautifully with our price–time geometry and could mark the moment of expansion after this consolidation.

So to sum it up:

  • Supports are strong
  • Geometry is favorable
  • Breakout setup is building
  • Time cycles are aligning

All signs point toward a market preparing for its next big leg up.

Now we wait for price to confirm.

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When Time Falls Silent, Price Must Speak: Nifty at a Critical Decision Zone”

We’ve been talking about this for days now — 27th and 28th January were not random dates. They were important on the time-cycle front, and with today’s session, that window finally closes.

What usually happens after such phases is simple: the market stops drifting and starts choosing.

From here, the short-term trend is unlikely to reveal itself in the middle.
It should become clearer only if Nifty steps out of this tight zone:

Above 25,372 (today’s high) – the market may finally start breathing on the upside.

Below 24,932 (yesterday’s low) – the pressure is likely to stay.

As long as we’re moving between these two levels, expect more noise, more frustration, and more false comfort. That’s sideways work.

About the recent low — we still can’t call 24,919 a real bottom. Not yet.
Markets don’t form bottoms just by touching a number. They prove them. And until Nifty starts holding above 25,500, that proof is missing.

Yes, globally things look supportive.
The Dollar is cooling off. The S&P 500 is making new highs. All of that should help.
But if there’s one thing the market keeps teaching — price doesn’t move on logic, it moves on its own readiness. And right now, our charts are still asking for confirmation.

To make things even more interesting, the Budget is due this Sunday. Big events, tight ranges, important time windows — that’s usually where volatility is born.

So for now, this is not a prediction phase.
This is a listening phase.

Let the market show its hand.
Till then — stay light, stay flexible, respect the levels, and don’t force opinions.

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NIFTY UPDATE

🔶 NIFTY Market Update – Key Highlights
NIFTY recently made a fresh all-time high but has been consolidating since.
The next major momentum wave will trigger ONLY when NIFTY Spot gives a daily close above 26,277
So far, this confirmation has not occurred, and therefore the index has remained sideways despite staying in a strong bullish structure.
This consolidation phase is expected to continue until a decisive daily close occurs above 26,277
Critical support remains placed at 25,650 (Spot)

⏳ Important Time-Cycle Dates
• December 4th – Critical cycle date
• December 9th – Secondary but important cycle date

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Alpha Generation: The Strategic Pivot to Mid-Caps

The market is giving us a clear, professional signal right now: the NIFTY has hit its new record high, but the fact that the broader market still lacks that necessary momentum confirms we’ve entered a crucial rotational phase. This observation is astute, as large-cap heavyweights have done their job and are now due for consolidation, making it an ideal time to strategically trim those excessive long positions carried over since the start of the rally as a crucial exercise in risk management and capital deployment. The focus must now pivot decisively to the mid-cap space, which is where the real alpha generation will reside in this next phase, capitalizing on the structural earnings resilience seen in this segment. It is a matter of shifting from index-level flows to high-conviction, stock-specific opportunities, requiring patience to identify those clear, high-probability ideal setups—particularly in high-growth sectors like Industrials, Technology, and certain Financials—before initiating fresh longs.

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Market Analysis: Riding the Bullish Wave in PSU Banks

Since late August, I have been bullish on Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banks. The entire weakness in NIFTYBANK was sponsored by the weakness in private sector banks, while PSU banks were still doing relatively better. Hence, I suggested a couple of stocks from this basket to subscribers during the third week of August. These trades were on Indian Bank and SBI. Let’s revisit them below.

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/25/indianbank-septembers-cycle-and-the-road-ahead/

Let’s start with Indian Bank. I identified a significant support zone, which was in the 640 to 660 range on the cash market. The stock tested the 660 mark and bounced sharply from there, clearing the 685 level on the upside and achieving our primary target of 703 on cash. The stock continues to stay significantly bullish, and it should only be a matter of time before our second target of 733 is achieved.

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/20/the-waiting-game-why-patience-is-key-for-sbi-investors/

SBI has been the most boring stock in the entire NIFTY basket. It has been testing our patience for the past few months, because we knew that this sort of consolidation would produce a significant and powerful move on either side. We continued to believe it would generate that move on the upside, and we have been watching it patiently. Thankfully, that patience paid off yesterday when the stock moved above 856 on cash. As discussed above, the immediate targets are 897 and 928 on cash in the near term, but we would eventually be thinking of 1000 here within the next few days. Let’s see.

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Strategic Moves: Preparing for Nifty’s Potential Swing

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/11/the-final-verdict-niftys-medium-term-fate-hangs-in-the-balance/

The current outlook for NIFTY remains stable as long as Monday’s intraday low is successfully held. This suggests that a bearish trend is unlikely to develop in the near term and a rally is the most probable next move.
A clear bullish signal will be triggered by a breakout above yesterday’s high of 24,703. This is a critical resistance zone, spanning from 24,703 to 24,761. A confirmed move above this range is expected to initiate a sharp upward rally.
In preparation for this potential shift, we have significantly reduced our short positions. This strategic adjustment was made because the majority of our targeted stocks have already met or exceeded their price objectives. As a result, we will be maintaining a very low-risk profile on our stock positions moving forward.
From a time-cycle perspective, the next two sessions are crucial for a potential trend reversal. NIFTY is set to complete a 90-degree time rotation from its April 7th low on August 14th, and a 360-degree rotation from its September 27th, 2024 low on August 18th. We advise all traders to remain vigilant and manage risk effectively in anticipation of a sharp market swing.

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The Nifty Downside Threat: A Critical Week Ahead

“Nifty has consistently registered weekly lows on Fridays over the past three weeks, a clear bearish signal. Despite this, the index struggles to accelerate its descent, primarily due to the prevailing strength in global markets. The remarkable resilience of the S&P 500, along with the undeniable uptrends across European and other Asian indices, highlights Nifty’s significant underperformance globally.

This divergence could be largely attributed to Nifty’s weekly cycles, which are scheduled to conclude next Monday, July 28th. Once this time pressure dissipates, Nifty may realign with its international counterparts. Consequently, the upcoming week is absolutely critical for all global markets, especially the U.S. markets.

Should the U.S. market initiate its long-anticipated pullback next week, Nifty would likely swiftly retest its swing lows of 24462 to 24473 on spot. This zone will be the decisive factor for Nifty’s medium-term trajectory. For now, we maintain a slight bearish bias, anticipating a potential retest of these swing lows. Yesterday’s high will serve as a strong resistance level on the upside.

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Market Outlook: NIFTY and S&P 500 in Sideways Consolidation

While directional trading currently holds little meaning, the NIFTY’s spot close above 25000 remains crucial, keeping major downside at bay. The trend remains sideways.

A strong breakout for NIFTY would materialize only with a sustained spot close above 25350. Conversely, no significant downside is anticipated as long as 24850 holds.

Similarly, US markets remain stable as long as the S&P 500 does not decisively close below 6250. A break of this level would signal a potential reversal.

For directional traders, patience is key. Wait for a clear break of these critical levels on either side before initiating new positions.

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AXISBANK’s Downside Confirmed: The Battle for Key Support Begins

https://ganninsides.com/2025/07/08/decoding-axisbanks-stagnation-technicals-and-critical-dates/

Our bearish call on AXISBANK, initiated on July 8th, has been decisively validated. We highlighted the significance of the ₹1155 breakdown level, and its breach yesterday unequivocally confirmed our downside projection, leading to the ₹1100 cash target being achieved today. This rapid fulfillment underscores the strength of the move post-breakdown.

At its intraday low, AXISBANK has now arrived at a pivotal support confluence: the ₹1065 to ₹1085 zone on the cash chart. This area represents a critical decision point for the stock.

Looking ahead: The market’s immediate focus shifts entirely to the resilience of this support band. A sustained break below the ₹1065-1085 range would signal a significant deterioration in the technical structure, opening the door for an accelerated decline towards ₹1031 and potentially ₹991 in the very near term. Conversely, a strong bounce from this zone could indicate a temporary reprieve or consolidation.

Traders and investors should monitor this key support with extreme vigilance, as a decisive move here will dictate AXISBANK’s trajectory for the remainder of the week and potentially beyond.

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Shockwaves in the Financial World: The Week the Market Buckled

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

Time unfolds in a compelling duality: the vast expanse of years that can pass with a deceptive tranquility, entire decades slipping by in a quiet hum of seemingly unbroken routine, where the currents of change flow so subtly as to be almost imperceptible, leaving behind a faint echo and a sense of continuity bordering on stagnation, like a slow, predictable river. Yet, sharply contrasting this are those extraordinary, compressed moments, intense and pivotal weeks – often unforeseen – where the very fabric of existence seems to warp and reconfigure itself. In these concentrated bursts, the accumulation of events, the confluence of forces, and the sheer weight of consequence create an accelerated history, with changes so rapid and their implications so far-reaching that they imprint themselves upon our understanding of the world and etch themselves into the collective memory with the profound significance and transformative power typically associated with the slow, gradual evolution of generations.”

“What a truly jarring week it was for U.S. markets! The unprecedented and frankly breathtaking decline of over 10% sent shockwaves through the financial world. This kind of sharp downturn is a genuinely rare event, marking only the third such instance since the tumultuous 2008 financial crisis. And for those who entered the markets in the optimistic period following the COVID crash of 2020, this sudden and significant drop represents their harsh introduction to a true bear market. The comfortable gains they may have become accustomed to have evaporated, and investors, particularly these newer ones, are likely facing a period of considerable anxiety and, yes, very, very painful losses in the coming months.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/02/15/decoding-market-dynamics-a-transformative-week-for-nifty-nifty-bank-and-the-sp-500/

“Looking back to mid-February now, it’s quite something to recall sharing a post outlining a potential cycle peak for the S&P 500 within the 6144 to 6219 level on the cash index. And with an almost eerie precision, the market obliged, topping out at 6147 on February 19th. Mark my words – that seemingly innocuous high of 6147 will, I believe, be etched into the memories of market participants for a very, very long time. It marked a significant turning point, a subtle yet crucial peak before the tides dramatically shifted.”

“Having anticipated a significant decline following that peak, I projected the index would drop towards the 5410 and 5119 levels. Remarkably, we did indeed reach these targets. While I initially expected this move to unfold over a slightly longer timeframe, the market witnessed a significant wave of liquidation, particularly after the tariffs announcement. Even without that specific news, I believe the market’s underlying technicals were pointing towards a downturn. However, this sharp and swift decline has injected extreme volatility into the overall technical setup. It’s crucial to remember that some of the most powerful rallies often occur within bear market conditions. Therefore, we should anticipate a sharp bounce in the coming days, which will likely be followed by a resumption of the downtrend.”

“Of course, these significant market shifts won’t materialize overnight; they will naturally take some time to fully play out. However, as professional traders, our approach to all trades from this juncture must be with slightly reduced volumes. These are indeed rare and highly volatile market conditions, and we need to exercise prudence to avoid aggressive positioning that could lead to regret later. As long as the CBOE VIX remains elevated above 25, we should not expect a return to market stability or ‘sanity.’ In these circumstances, even a single tactical error could potentially lead to a complete exit from the game. It’s crucial to recognize that this market environment is significantly different from the relatively calmer conditions we’ve become accustomed to over the past five years.”

“My near-term analysis suggests that the S&P 500 is likely to find a footing within the 4850 to 4950 support zone. Coupled with the important time cycle dates falling around April 9th, 14th, and 21st, these factors increase the probability of a significant short-term bounce. Savvy traders will be watching these levels and dates closely, potentially looking for opportunities to capitalize on this upward move. However, it’s absolutely crucial to approach this bounce with caution and a clear exit strategy. Given my broader expectation for levels below 4200 in the coming months, this rally should be viewed primarily as a counter-trend move. Therefore, any long positions taken during this bounce should be managed with tight stops, and traders should be prepared to reduce exposure or even consider establishing short positions as the rally begins to show signs of exhaustion. The key is to use this bounce strategically to position for the anticipated continuation of the downtrend, rather than getting caught up in what is likely to be a temporary reprieve.”

India’s Resilience Amidst Global Market Turbulence: A Closer Look

“Turning our attention to the Indian markets, the situation is notably less severe compared to the turbulence we’ve observed in the U.S. As of Friday’s close, the India VIX remained below 14. Remarkably, even despite Friday’s sell-off, the VIX barely registered a significant upward movement. Observing this level of complacency leading up to Thursday’s close, my view was that as long as Tuesday’s intraday low held, there was a reasonable possibility that the NIFTY could have retested the 23600 level before resuming its downward trajectory. However, the sharp sell-off in the S&P 500 on Thursday evening had a cascading effect. On Friday morning, the NIFTY broke decisively below its Tuesday intraday low of 23136, and that immediately negated any near-term upside potential I had been considering.”

“During the second half of March, I frequently provided updates on the NIFTY, and I’m sharing a couple of those updates below.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/03/18/nifty-resistance-support-and-time-based-analysis/

“On March 18th, I shared a post with all my subscribers in which I highlighted three very important time cycle dates: March 24th, April 4th, and April 7th.”

“The fact that the NIFTY topped out on March 25th, just a day after my identified time cycle date of March 24th, underscores the accuracy and potential predictive power of these cyclical tools. It reinforces the idea that late March was a pivotal period for the Indian market. Now, we need to carefully analyze the market’s behavior around the April 4th time cycle, which we already know brought significant volatility, and the upcoming April 7th date. Will these dates also align with important market shifts, further validating the significance of these time cycles in our analysis?”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/03/21/nifty-short-term-gains-long-term-concerns/https://ganninsides.com/2025/03/21/nifty-short-term-gains-long-term-concerns/

“So, the NIFTY’s high on March 25th reached 23869. This is remarkably close to the 23800 level I highlighted in my post on March 21st as a potential upside target before a move lower. This near-perfect alignment significantly reinforces the validity of that particular analysis and the methodologies employed to identify that potential resistance zone. It suggests that the NIFTY did indeed test the upper end of the expected range before the bearish sentiment took hold, leading to the subsequent decline we’ve observed.”

“Looking at the immediate short term, the opening on Monday morning will be crucial. Setting aside futures considerations for now, critical support on the spot NIFTY lies within the 22300 to 22500 range. Should the index fail to hold this 22300 level, we should anticipate a new low for 2025, breaking below the March low of 21964. I held a strong conviction that 21964 was unlikely to be a significant bottom, a rationale I explained on March 13th. While many of my subscribers disagreed with this view at the time, the current price action lends credence to that perspective. If 22300 is breached, the NIFTY is likely to head towards the 21300 level on the spot index. Regarding the time aspect, following the April 7th cycle date, the next important time cycle dates to watch will be around April 15th and April 21st.”

“Therefore, while we watch for potential footing in the S&P 500 and critical support levels in the NIFTY alongside key time cycle dates, my overall analysis continues to point towards lower levels in the months ahead. Treat any short-term rallies as counter-trend moves, manage your risk meticulously, and use these opportunities to strategically position for the expected continuation of the downtrend. Thank you for considering my analysis.”

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NIFTY’s Trajectory: A Geometric Perspective

NIFTY’s Pivotal Period: Decoding Market Signals

“The NIFTY is in the midst of a very important time cycle window, from March 8th to March 18th. In past posts, I have been discussing this time window as a critical period for the NIFTY’s medium-term trajectory. Originally, I was anticipating a durable bottom somewhere closer to 21,700 on the spot index. However, the index has managed to escape that level for now, and this is an extremely important message the markets are sending us.”

“A failure to bottom within this critical window (March 8-18) signals a risk of extended downside, delaying the anticipated durable bottom by weeks. Conversely, a standard correction would have concluded within this timeframe.”

“The index’s current behavior strongly points towards a retest of the 2024 swing lows, between 21,100 and 21,300 on the spot index.”

“I also explored the possibility of a strong or medium-term bottom at the March 4th low of 21965, but unfortunately, that doesn’t fit mathematically. I will tell you why.”

“In geometric proportions, two line segments must maintain a consistent ratio. This means line segment A cannot become proportionally shorter than line segment B. I will illustrate this principle with a practical example below. Please remember this mathematical rule, as it will be crucial for our future analysis.”

“Let’s explore this further.”

“From the September 27th, 2024, high of 26277, the Nifty spot index experienced a decline to 23264 on November 21st, 2024. This decline represents a drop of 3013 points. Let’s designate this decline as ‘line A’. Please retain the value of 3013 points as we proceed.”

“Now, from its secondary high of 24857, recorded on December 5th, 2024, we draw another line, which we will designate as ‘line B’. The crucial point regarding line B is that, in the bare minimum scenario, its length must precisely match that of line A. Subtracting 3013 points from 24857 yields a value of 21844. While 21965 is quite close, unfortunately, it still falls short of the minimum required length.”

“Just as in mathematics, where 2 + 2 invariably equals 4 and never 1.9, we can confidently assert that a definitive bottom has not yet been established for the NIFTY index. Regardless of the current market fluctuations, we anticipate that this is, at best, a temporary pullback. Consequently, we expect further lower lows in the near future.”

“Given the crucial mathematical relationships that guide market movements, and the enduring nature of geometric principles despite market volatility, this analysis strongly suggests caution, as further lower lows are probable. We will maintain close observation and provide updates.”

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S&P 500: Prediction Confirmed, Targets Revised.

https://ganninsides.com/2025/02/15/decoding-market-dynamics-a-transformative-week-for-nifty-nifty-bank-and-the-sp-500/

“The S&P 500 has reversed very sharply after testing its significant resistance zone. On February 15th, I shared a blog post in which I anticipated a major reversal around February 18th to 21st, from the zone of 6144 to 6219. The index reached a high of 6147 on February 19th, and hopefully, that’s the high I’ve been looking for since late January. Going forward, the zone of 5770 to 5820 will be a temporary support; once that breaks, a sharp drop towards 5450 would occur. For the near term, regarding timing, today, February 28th, and March 11th will be critical cycle dates.”

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SBI: From Reversal to Target – A Technical Breakdown

https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/30/sbi-the-next-few-days-could-be-crucial/

“We placed SBI on our trade list on January 30, 2025, and it has remained a key focus since then.”

“I identified January 31st and February 1st as significant potential reversal dates. Furthermore, an upside resistance zone was projected between 780 and 800 in cash. Fortunately, the stock respected both the price and time reversal points, registering a reversal as anticipated. This reversal has driven the price towards our initial target of 724, and it is now approaching our second target of 681 in cash. Notably, 681 represents a crucial support level. On the time front, a strong cycle date is due on March 2nd. Should the stock sustain a level below 681, the decline could extend further towards 644 in cash. Proceed with caution.”

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Subscriber Analysis: Wipro Target Achieved, What’s Next?

https://ganninsides.com/2025/02/10/wipro-key-dates-and-potential-pullback/

“In a blog post shared with my subscribers on February 10th, I discussed Wipro and identified a target zone of 291 on the cash chart, which has now been reached. The stock is presently testing a critical support level at 287. A daily close below this level may trigger a subsequent decline, with initial targets at 281 and 275. A sustained breach could lead to a broader correction, potentially extending towards the 255 mark.”

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NIFTY & S&P 500 Setups: Insights Shared with Subscribers

On the NIFTY, I have been waiting for a daily close below its January low of 22,786 for further price expansion on the downside. Until we get that, the market will likely continue to bounce from this zone.  More broadly, the sell-on-rise structure will remain intact.

“In fact, on February 15th, I shared a post with my subscribers discussing potential setups for the NIFTY and the S&P 500.  I encourage you to give it a read.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/02/15/decoding-market-dynamics-a-transformative-week-for-nifty-nifty-bank-and-the-sp-500/

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NIFTY Update: January 31st Prediction Confirmed

https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/31/nifty-bank-nifty-approaching-critical-resistance-levels/

“On January 31st, I advised my subscribers, in a published post, to consider short positions within the 23,500 to 23,700 range on the NIFTY spot index, targeting 22,800.  The index reached this target today, as anticipated.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/29/evaluating-market-outlook-ahead-of-the-union-budget/

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NIFTY Forecast: Holding Support Key Amidst Upcoming Volatility

The NIFTY’s short-term outlook, encompassing today and the coming days, hinges on a critical support zone located between 23400 and 23500 on the spot market.  A decisive break below this zone on a closing basis would open the door for a measured decline towards 23100.  Looking ahead, we anticipate heightened market volatility beginning around February 13th.  This expectation stems from significant cycle dates falling on February 14th, 18th, 19th, and 20th.  However, provided this support level remains intact, the NIFTY is expected to maintain its stability.

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Bearish Outlook Intensifies for S&P 500

https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/17/prepare-for-turbulence-key-dates-risks/

On January 17th, I shared a post with my subscribers in which I discussed the market setup for Indian and U.S. markets. The overall plan was to stay on the short side on both markets. Specifically on the S&P 500, I pointed out January 24th as a price and time squaring date, which usually indicates a trend reversal. So, a turn was likely, and today’s decline further strengthens the bearish outlook going forward. Despite the S&P moving higher in the past week, I maintained the same outlook. I would expect that we likely have a double top breakdown from the 6100 zone. Let’s see if this view holds true; then we are likely headed towards 5600 in the next few weeks. “As I previously warned, bearish and precarious market conditions were evident in leading tech stocks like NVIDIA and Microsoft. I expect these conditions to deteriorate further.”

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The Road Ahead for Nifty: Volatility and Uncertainty

NIFTY broke below its significant support of 23,000 yesterday. However, the decline appears to be temporary for now. A sustained trade below 23,000 on the spot market is likely to drag prices towards the zone of 22,400 to 22,600 in the near term. With India VIX above 17, a one-way decline is unlikely. Markets are likely to head lower, but in a volatile manner. NIFTY is currently trading well below its resistance. As noted multiple times, volatility is likely to remain high until January 24th. Therefore, stay nimble with your trades. It is better to avoid careless trading. From here on out, it would be ideal to operate at lower volumes.”

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Nifty: Temporary Respite Ahead of Further Lower Lows

https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/15/nifty-navigates-choppy-waters-support-holds-but-risks-remain/

“NIFTY, as discussed in the 15th January post, 23,000 is a strong support and holding that. There is a short-term probability of a rebound towards the zone of 23,550 to 23,700, which is the resistance zone.

However, this shall only be a temporary respite; the medium-term trend remains firmly bearish. So, post this rebound, expect further lower lows.

On the time front, until 24th January, vibrations are likely to stay on the higher side, so it’s better to be watchful.”

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NIFTY Navigates Choppy Waters: Support Holds, But Risks Remain

“As mentioned in my Sunday’s post, the November low of 23,263 for NIFTY was psychologically important. However, more importantly, the zone of 23,000 to 23,100 is a critical support because it represents a 45-degree angle from its September high of 26,277. Consequently, on Monday, the index, as expected, broke its November low.”

“However, NIFTY has thus far managed to maintain its critical support level at 23,000. As long as this support holds, a rebound towards the resistance zone of 23,550 to 23,700 remains a possibility.”

“While pockets within the Indian market exhibit signs of oversold conditions and may trigger short-term rebounds, the underlying bearish medium-term trend remains firmly in place.”

“The S&P 500 has also filled its election results day gap. Further lower lows are certainly possible, but a short-term pullback may occur.”

“On the time front, for both Indian markets and U.S. markets, some very strong cycle dates are lined up from January 17th to 24th. Expect some wild price swings in Indian and global markets starting around Friday.”

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“Support Breached, Trend Confirmed: Nifty & S&P 500 Bearish Outlook Intensifies”

“The market is sending us clear signals, and it’s crucial to understand them. While some may see short-term volatility, the underlying trend remains firmly bearish. Let’s delve deeper into the factors driving this market movement.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/04/decoding-the-market-unraveling-the-current-trends/

“Markets behaved precisely as I predicted in my January 4th post. As discussed, both the Nifty and the S&P 500 fell below their given support levels during the week and are now poised for further declines.”

So “There’s nothing further to add to our previous discussion. My stance on Indian markets has been unequivocally bearish since early October, and I’ve held a bearish outlook on US indices since early December.”

The bearish trend persists, but certain market segments within India are showing signs of being oversold. This could lead to heightened volatility, but the overall market direction is likely to remain downward. I anticipate significantly lower levels for the Nifty and have shared specific price targets and their associated timelines with subscribers.”

For now, let’s discuss the near-term setup for NIFTY and the S&P 500.

NIFTY

“The November low of 23,263 is psychologically important for NIFTY, but more importantly, the zone of 23,000 to 23,100 is a more critical support level. This is because it represents a 45-degree angle support line drawn from its September high of 26,277. Therefore, a break below this zone could open up significant downside levels in the short and medium term.”

If 23000 is broken, 22500 may become a potential target in the short term.”

S&P 500

“On the S&P 500, as I discussed last week, 5840 was a critical support level. As anticipated, this support finally broke on Friday. However, the election results day gap has not yet been filled. This gap would be filled at 5781. It should only be a matter of time before the index fills this gap. Once this happens, it could open up a decline towards 5620 within the next few days. From here, global markets are about to enter a phase of extreme volatility, so be prepared for a roller coaster ride.”

“Last week, I also discussed certain tech stocks, such as Nvidia and Microsoft, which exhibited setups for a sharp decline. As predicted, both stocks experienced significant selloffs. Notably, the reversal in Nvidia has been particularly severe, potentially signaling the beginning of a broader downturn within the tech sector. A decisive break below the critical 126-130 price zone in Nvidia would strongly suggest a significant shift in sentiment and could have severe implications for investors in the technology space.”

“Things are looking a bit dicey for both NIFTY and the S&P 500 right now. With those support levels broken, it could get bumpy ahead. Best to be prepared for some volatility.”

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Decoding the Market: Unraveling the Current Trends

“Today, we’ll delve into a technical analysis of the NIFTY index, examining its recent volatility and assessing the potential impact of global market dynamics.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/28/nifty-sp-range-bound-and-vulnerable-to-downside/

NIFTY had an eventful week, during which the index broke below its December 20th low of 23,537 but held its November low of 23,263. Subsequently, holding that low, the index staged a recovery towards its resistance zone of 24,000 to 24,200 on Thursday.”

Interestingly, on December 5th, we also had a similar up day, which coincidentally was also the first Thursday of the month. Similarly, January 2nd was also the first Thursday of the month. So, let’s see how the next few sessions pan out for our markets.”

For next week, support for NIFTY would stand at 23,900 to 23,740 on spot. Consolidation is likely holding this support band. But once broken, the decline should resume towards 23,510 and probably towards the November low of 23,263.”

Technically, the index is still not out of the woods even in the extreme short term. As long as spot holds below 24,200 to 24,300 on a closing basis, the immediate trend would continue to stay absolutely bearish. But in case this zone is taken away, then the short-term setup would turn neutral.”

On the time front, there are no cycle dates until January 24th, so we are unlikely to get any sort of reference on the time front until January 24th. So, in this case, global markets become excessively important for our markets. And on that front too, according to our analysis, from next week, we are anticipating a decline to enter its next phase, especially on U.S. indices.”

US Market Update: S&P 500 Support at Risk

“For S&P, as I discussed last week, January 2nd was an important cycle date. On that day, we got a fresh marginal lower low below its December low. But despite that, the support of 5840 actually held on a closing basis. However, with every passing day, that support is getting weaker. I’m expecting it to finally go through as early as next week. The next cycle date is due on January 16th and 17th, so a lot can happen before that. Certain stocks such as Microsoft and Nvidia are gearing up for a scary decline. Let’s see.”

“The S&P 500 is teetering on the edge. The 5840 support level is under serious threat, and a break could trigger a sharper decline.  The weakness in leading stocks like Microsoft and Nvidia adds to the growing sense of unease. The next two weeks will be crucial in determining the near-term direction of the market. Proceed with caution.”

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Nifty & S&P: Range-Bound and Vulnerable to Downside

Nifty: Confined within a range, poised for a potential breakout, with a downside bias.

“NIFTY spent the entire past week inside the intraday range of 20th December. So, obviously, a break either side of the 20th December high or low is likely to produce a very powerful move on that side. I personally would be more interested in a move on the downside. But that does not matter as traders; we always require market confirmations to validate our expectations.”

Nifty Faces Strong Resistance: Downside Risks Remain

“For NIFTY, major resistance on the upside stands at 24,000 to 24,200 on spot. As long as the index stays below this zone, it should only be a matter of time before it breaks its December 20th low of 23,537 and subsequently breaks its November low of 23,263 in the next few days. On the time front, specifically for NIFTY, there is no dedicated major cycle date due until mid-January. This is the most dangerous thing for investors who are hoping for a respite from the selloff.”

S&P: Testing resistance, showing signs of weakness, and potentially vulnerable to a significant correction.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/19/time-cycles-and-market-turmoil-sp-500-and-nvidia/

“On S&P, as I discussed on December 19th, we likely have a durable top in place at 6100. In the past week, the index went very close towards that high but reversed back very sharply on Friday. Still, the index is yet to convincingly break the critical support of 5840, as I discussed earlier. Once that breaks, markets should be in for a waterfall decline towards 5620. The open gap of election results day is providing good support to the index. Once that gap fills, our projected higher degree correction would officially get confirmed. Anticipating this to get through post-critical time cycle dates of January 2nd, let’s see.”

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The Convergence of Dates and the Subsequent NIFTY Crash

The NIFTY’s Descent: A Tale of Timing and Technicals

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/18/nifty-index-breach-of-support-raises-breakdown-concerns/

“NIFTY experienced a significant breakdown below its critical support of 24,200 on spot on Wednesday. As discussed in the post shared above, the initial target of this major breakdown was projected at 23,800, which the index achieved quite easily.”

The past week witnessed a confluence of three significant time cycle dates – 17th, 19th, and 20th December – culminating in one of the most bearish weeks for Indian markets in the last two years. This bearish sentiment was reflected in the NIFTY’s volatile trading, with a weekly range exceeding 1200 points from Monday to Friday.”

“I have been anticipating this market decline for several days. The current downturn is unfolding as expected, both in terms of timing and severity. As previously mentioned, this leg lower is likely to be more impactful and potentially more dangerous than the declines witnessed in October and the first half of November. However, this major downtrend will likely unfold in phases, meaning that the market won’t decline consistently every day. Therefore, it’s crucial for traders to capitalize on any rallies that emerge to initiate fresh short positions.”

On PRICE FRONT

The NIFTY is likely to encounter resistance in the zone between 23,900 and 24,300 on spot. This range may act as a significant hurdle for any upward momentum in the index.”

On TIME FRONT

“The convergence of two significant time cycle dates next week, December 26th and 27th, is likely to heighten market volatility. Traders should anticipate wider intraday swings and increased price fluctuations during this period.”

“Broadly, I am expecting the NIFTY to drop significantly in the coming weeks and months. However, for the next few days, I would expect the NIFTY to take a breather first. Then, I anticipate a lower low below its November low of 23,263. Finally, it may break its 45-degree angle support of 23,100, which has been calculated from its September high. This would be its second attempt to break this support. And this time, I would expect the NIFTY to finally break through, opening up a genuine possibility for a drop towards its 90-degree angle support, which comes significantly lower. Let’s not discuss that for now.”

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Time Cycles and Market Turmoil: S&P 500 and NVIDIA

The S&P 500 experienced a sharp decline yesterday following the FOMC meeting outcome. Prior to this decline, the index had been trading within a relatively narrow range, exhibiting sideways movement.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/03/niftys-double-edged-sword-a-risky-play-for-traders/https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/03/niftys-double-edged-sword-a-risky-play-for-traders/

“We have been diligently monitoring the S&P 500, and I have consistently shared technical updates on its performance. Notably, on December 3rd, I published a post highlighting December 6th as a pivotal turning point based on time cycle analysis. Furthermore, I identified the price range of 6080 to 6120 as a critical resistance zone, aligning with the confluence of price and time-based forecasting models.”

“As anticipated, the index reached its peak on December 6th, reaching a high of 6100. Subsequently, the index exhibited a reversal in trend. Moving forward, the 5840 level assumes significant importance as a critical support level. A decisive break below this level would trigger a more pronounced downside move, with an initial target set at 5620. Further analysis and insights will be provided upon the breach of the 5840 support level. From a time cycle perspective, the next significant date to observe is January 2nd.”

Okay, let’s shift our focus to NVIDIA.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/13/nvidias-128-support-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine-for-the-market/

NVIDIA experienced a significant decline earlier this week, breaching the critical support level of 128. As I previously discussed on Friday, this breach had the potential to trigger broader ramifications within the tech sector. Yesterday’s trading session provided a glimpse into this potential impact.”

“On NVIDIA, I would be looking for levels of 110 and 90 over the course of the next few weeks. Markets globally are about to turn extremely volatile from here on, so it’s best not to get carried away with wide fluctuations. Eventually, markets should be headed lower from here.”

“The coming weeks promise a dynamic market environment for traders.”

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Nifty Index: Breach of Support Raises Breakdown Concerns

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/13/niftys-volatile-descent/

“As anticipated last Friday, December 17th emerged as a pivotal turning point for Nifty and other NSE indices. This precipitated a sharp decline yesterday. Today’s breach of the 24,180 support level has unequivocally confirmed a significant breakdown, a scenario I’ve been highlighting for the past two weeks.”

“Today’s intraday low dipped below 24,180, raising concerns about a potential significant shift in market momentum. However, a decisive daily close below 24,200 is necessary to confirm a major breakdown. We await today’s closing price for a clearer picture of the market’s direction.”

“Should the market close below 24,200 today, it would strongly suggest a breakdown with an initial downside target of 23,800 on the spot market. Given the significance of tomorrow and Friday in the time cycle analysis, these dates will require close monitoring.”

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NIFTY’s Volatile Descent

NIFTY broke the recent consolidation on the downside today, but in a highly volatile manner.

Yesterday, NIFTY registered its first daily close below the December 9th low of 24,580. This timely breach suggests a potential southward turn. However, a sustained break below the 9th December low is necessary to intensify the downside momentum and trigger a more significant reversal.

On the price front, as discussed on Monday, the major support zone for NIFTY lies between 24,200 and 24,400 on a spot basis. A closing price above this zone is likely to delay the reversal process and could even trigger a rally towards the 25,000-25,200 range in the near future.

The upcoming week is crucial for the overall market outlook. December 17th, 19th, and 20th mark significant turning points for several NSE indices. The next 45-60 days will be a period of intense market activity and potential volatility for all market participants.

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NIFTY Consolidates Near-Term, Bearish Bias Persists

NIFTY remains range-bound, displaying a neutral bias. The anticipated reversal signals haven’t materialized, neither in terms of price action nor timeframe. Consequently, no immediate action is necessary.”

The index was confined to a 350-point range established during the last hour of trading on the previous Thursday. This consolidation was likely to persist until a decisive break above or below this range.”

Despite this short-term indecision, I maintain a bearish outlook for NIFTY. Even a higher high above 24,857 won’t alter this underlying bearish sentiment. This range is expected to break within the next three trading sessions.”

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Market on the Brink: Awaiting Confirmation of Significant Sell-Off

“NIFTY’s rally has paused. The 24,200-24,400 support is crucial. A potential correction may be on the horizon.”

NIFTY’s Predicted Surge: A Timely Bounce

I’ve been bullish on NIFTY since mid-November. I highlighted the 23,000 level as a critical 45-degree angle support, akin to a sturdy bulwark, which I anticipated would hold on the first attempt. As expected, the index respected this level and rebounded.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/03/niftys-double-edged-sword-a-risky-play-for-traders/

On December 3rd, I predicted that this rebound was nearing its peak and that future price action would be more influenced by support levels than resistance. This cautious approach remains valid for next few days as well.”

On PRICE FRONT.”

Due to the recent rally, NIFTY’s support zone has shifted higher to the 24,200-24,400 range. As long as the index continues to hold above this support, the anticipated reversal may take some time to materialize.”

“It appears the Nifty’s recent rally may have peaked on December 5th. While this is a strong possibility, we need further confirmation before drawing definitive conclusions.”

On TIME FRONT.”

“As I previously discussed, December 9th is a very important time cycle date. The intraday low of the 9th would be considered a key pivot of reference for confirming a potential reversal.”

December 6th also held some significance as a minor time cycle date. A sustained move below the intraday low on December 6th would signal a bearish turn for the overall market.”

“Holding these key time cycle pivots suggests a positive trend outlook for near term.”

I’m still awaiting confirmation of a market reversal, both in terms of price and time. Once this confirmation is received, we could potentially witness one of the most significant market sell-offs in the past three years.”

A Timely Reminder: Risk Management in Volatile Markets

“Given the potential for a significant market correction, now may be an opportune time to reassess your portfolio and consider risk management strategies. Stay informed, stay disciplined, and adapt to changing market conditions. Let’s navigate this journey together.”

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NIFTY’s Double-Edged Sword: A Risky Play for Traders

NIFTY Hits Target, Potential Reversal Ahead

NIFTY today has achieved our pending target of 24,400 on spot.
With this, the index is reaching a terminal point of the larger rebound which started from the 21st November low.”

A reversal from this point would likely take more time, as such a shift is typically a gradual process. Significant support on the downside is expected in the range of 23,900 to 24,100. As long as the index holds above this level, a further decline may be delayed. Going forward, support levels will become increasingly crucial.”

Holding supports “We might see a short-term rally to the 24,600-24,700 range. However, I believe this presents a prime opportunity to establish short positions using long-dated put options. If my analysis is accurate, the market is poised to resume its downtrend, potentially with greater severity than the October decline.”

On the time front, as I have been mentioning for the past few days, December 9th is a very critical cycle date, so the intraday range of that date will be important.
Even December 6th is going to be a minor cycle date, so both of these dates have the potential to generate a powerful move in the indices.”

S&P 500: Price and Time Convergence, A Crucial Test

“Finally, on the S&P too, December 6th is going to be a major cycle turn date, so let’s see. The momentum cycles on the S&P peaked out on November 11th, so the recent high is not as bullish as it would have been. On the price front, the zone of 6080 to 6120 would be a strong price and time squaring resistance.”

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Nifty’s Intriguing Trajectory: A Potential Pause and Key Levels to Watch

The recent market movement in NIFTY has been intriguing, with a potential pause on the horizon. While the index has met the criteria for a minimum pullback, a target of 24400 still seems achievable.

Key Points:

“Yesterday’s high isn’t necessarily the peak of this rally. The real test lies in whether the current support levels hold. For Nifty, the crucial support zone ranges from 23,750 to 23,950 on the spot index. As long as this zone remains intact, we can expect further upward momentum in the near term. However, a breach below 23,750 could signal a potential reversal.”

From a time perspective, as previously discussed, November 29th is a key date, followed by a very strong and significant time cycle on December 9th.”

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NIFTY’s Predicted Surge: A Timely Bounce

“NIFTY has performed exactly as anticipated, as I’ve outlined in my last two blog posts.”

“As I expounded upon on the fourteenth of November”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/11/14/nifty-50-technical-analysis-and-trading-outlook/

“And as I further expounded upon on the twenty-first of November”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/11/21/nifty-23000-a-critical-support-level-as-sp-500-cools-down/

“I previously indicated that November would be different from October. In October, we experienced a straight decline without a meaningful bounce. However, it wasn’t wise to expect an exact repeat in November. This market badly needed a decent bounce, and we finally got it at the right time.”

The 23,000 support level proved to be a formidable fortress, repelling bearish forces. The Nifty index, seizing the opportunity, soared to 23,700 and ultimately conquered our 24,100 target. Given this intense market action, a breather seems likely in the short term.”

Time Cycles and Future Outlook:

If the NIFTY index can maintain its position above 24,100, it could potentially rise to 24,400 and 24,600 in the short term. However, I believe this is only a temporary upward movement against the current downward trend. I don’t anticipate a major trend reversal based on my analysis. Instead, I expect another significant sell-off to occur after this brief respite. It’s important to remember that market trends don’t change overnight. We should let the market unfold naturally.”

The near-term cycle date is approaching on November 29th, and a more significant time cycle date is due on December 9th. These dates will be crucial in determining the market’s future direction.”

Stay tuned for further updates and analysis as we navigate these important time cycles.”

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NIFTY 23,000: A Critical Support Level as S&P 500 Cools Down

“Picking up where we left off on November 14th, let’s revisit the NIFTY and its current outlook.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/11/14/nifty-50-technical-analysis-and-trading-outlook/

On NIFTY, I still maintain the view I shared on November 14th. As mentioned earlier, the possibility of a decent bounce holding around 23,000 continues to persist.”

The rally from Monday’s low and the decline from Tuesday’s high have had no impact on our overall view. Our critical support marker remains firm at 23,000 on the spot market. As noted earlier, 23,700 on the upside is a very important level.”

A sustained trade above 23,700 would make the structure more stable, potentially helping the index rally towards 24,100 and even 24,400 in the coming days. Let’s see if our view of a potential bounce is correct. If so, we should also be able to predict a resumption of another severe sell-off after the anticipated bounce.”

For now, let’s closely observe market behavior until next Monday. Only a sustained trade below 23,000 would force me to change my view.”

Let’s dive into the US market!

https://ganninsides.com/2024/11/06/nifty-recovers-us-markets-post-election-outlook/

S&P: From Election Euphoria to Reality

“On S&P, as I mentioned on November 6th, once the election euphoria settles down and the FOMC meeting is out of the way, I expect S&P to turn lower. I also pointed out two very critical time cycle dates, which were November 11th and 14th. As we all know, S&P reached its peak on November 11th, and since then, the index has been trending lower.”

For short term

“The 5840 level is a crucial short-term support. Holding this level could keep the trend flat. However, a breach would likely reinforce our bearish outlook. Cross-asset indicators, including the dollar and 10-year yields, strongly suggest a downward trajectory for the S&P. Let’s watch closely.”

On the time front, the next major cycle date is due on December 6th.”

For medium term On the price front, the S&P still has to fill its election results day gap, which occurred on November 6th, to complete the topping process. That gap fills at 5780 on cash. Let’s see once that fills; a move towards 5660-5680 should be on the cards.”

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Nifty 50: Technical Analysis and Trading Outlook

Nifty reached our projected target zone of 23500-23600, as discussed in yesterday’s post. As mentioned, the possibility of a significant rebound remains strong.  On the downside, 23000 acts as strong support, a 45-degree trendline drawn from the September high. Typically, such strong support holds on the first attempt.”

Therefore, we anticipate a bounce as long as 23000 holds. In the near term, we no longer hold a bearish outlook, at least for the next few days.”

We’ll see. If Nifty starts to sustain below 23000, then next targets are much lower. However, for now, let’s not dwell on that bearish scenario. We are no longer interested in continuing with shorts.”

In fact, once Nifty starts to sustain above 23700, we would be looking for a rally towards 24100 and 24400 on the spot index during the next few days.”

Until early December, the Nifty 50 index is primarily driven by price action, as specific cycle dates aren’t indicated on the TIME front.”

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NIFTY’s Downward Spiral: Will 23,500-23,600 Halt the Fall?

NIFTY gets a lower low below 23,816, which is on very much expected lines. Yesterday’s close literally confirmed a fresh lower low. This fresh breakdown makes way for a test of the significant support zone of 23,500-23,600 on NIFTY spot going forward. The setup should get really interesting once NIFTY gets closer to 23,600.”

Despite the market’s weakness, a sharp, sustained downturn is unlikely. The current market conditions differ significantly from those in early October. Therefore, a nuanced approach is necessary to capitalize on potential opportunities.”

Now reed it very carefully.”

A rebound from the 23,500-23,600 support zone remains a plausible scenario. However, if this level is breached, the ultimate support lies at 23,000, a critical 45-degree angle support line from the September high of 26,277. Historically, such strong support levels often trigger significant price reactions.”

Stay tuned for further developments as the market navigates these crucial levels.”

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NIFTY Market Update: Critical Support Levels Fail, Downside Risk Elevated

For NIFTY, the 8th and 11th of November were major cycle dates. As discussed earlier, both these dates were significant for the near-term trend. Holding above the intraday lows of both these dates, we can expect a flattish kind of trade for this week. Only a daily close below both these dates’ lows would trigger a fresh leg of sharp decline.”

On the price front, 24,100 was a critical support. A break of that has eliminated the possibility of a bottom formation at 23,816. So, further lower lows are certainly due. At best, we can get a higher high above 24,537, but that too won’t signal a broader trend shift.”

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NIFTY’s Rebound Falters: 24,510 Resists

Yesterday, NIFTY tested the 24,510 resistance level but was unable to sustain the momentum. As long as the index remains below this level, it suggests that the recent rebound may have peaked.” On downside The 24,100 level is a crucial support level. If this level is breached, a retest of the 23,800 and 23,600 levels could be on the cards in the coming days.” Given the current market conditions, high volatility is expected. It’s advisable to exercise caution in your trading decisions.”

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NIFTY Recovers, US Markets Post-Election Outlook

NIFTY is experiencing the anticipated rebound, which began on Monday. This upward momentum is likely to persist for a few more days, provided the spot price remains above the 23,800-24,000 range. Resistance levels are at 24,510 and 24,800.”

Significant cycle dates for NIFTY are due on November 8th and 11th. Expect a strong price reaction around these dates.

Once this rebound ends we would expect further lower lows on NIFTY and overall market.”

U.S. Markets: A Post-Election Outlook.”

Regardless of current futures trends, we still anticipate lower lows for the S&P 500 once the election euphoria subsides and the FOMC meeting concludes. The next major cycle dates for U.S. markets are November 11th and 14th.”

What may seem insignificant now could make a lot of sense in next few weeks.”

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NIFTY Dips Below 23,900: Short-Term Outlook

NIFTY achieved our 2nd target of 23900 today. NIFTY’s decisive break below 23,900, as anticipated since mid-October, marks a significant turning point. Traders who’ve been short since late September should consider securing profits. While the current downward momentum is strong, a temporary pause at the 23,600 level is possible. A close above this level could trigger a deeper rebound. However, if 23,600 fails to hold, a decline towards 23,000 seems likely. Key dates for NIFTY’s next major cycle are November 8th and 11th.”

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U.S. Indices Brace for Volatility: A 48-Hour Countdown

“The next 48 hours are crucial for U.S. indices, as I predicted in my weekend post. October 31st and November 1st are significant TIME Cycle dates, and we’ve reached that point. This timeframe is likely to trigger substantial fluctuations in all U.S. indices, marking a potential shift in market trends. Volatility is expected to increase, making market conditions more dynamic. Additionally, next Monday, all global indices will complete a 90-day period since their August 5th low. Overall, we anticipate a period of heightened market activity and uncertainty.”

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India’s Isolated Fall: A Unique Market Anomaly or a Global Precursor?

Market Crash: My Prediction, Your Reality.”

INDIAN MARKETS have witnessed a relentless selloff since the start of the month. I accept few, if any, actually saw it coming. Actually, in a normal state of mind, people do not anticipate such crazy stuff. But I was one of those few analysts who actually saw this selloff coming. If you have been following me, especially since the second half of September, then you must have been aware of my views. I was very clear with my bearish view and despite the markets moving higher, I maintained my view. In fact, I did put things in technical terms.”

Let’s dive back into two of my posts from that era.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/09/13/us-market-strength-ignites-indian-rally-but-volatility-looms/

“On September 13th, following a 500-point rally in the Nifty, I shared a post highlighting a potential conflict between price and time, which could lead to volatile market movements. Regardless of current market conditions, the Nifty was well-positioned to test the 24,020 level in the coming days. As predicted, the Nifty nearly reached this level on Friday’s low. In the same post, I also mentioned my trading strategy of adding 25,000 put options, which I personally averaged until the premium reached 250. I emphasized that time cycles often achieve their predetermined goals, and this particular instance was a perfect example.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/09/25/niftys-bullish-structure-nearing-completion/

“On September 25th, I highlighted the completion of a bullish structure in the Nifty Index. I also identified September 26th as a crucial turning point, and indeed, Nifty reached its peak on September 27th. This period was particularly significant for Nifty, as it squared its price with time on October 1st and 3rd. According to Gann Theory, such price and time squaring often signals a major trend reversal.”

Next week, October 28th, marks a critical TIME cycle date for NIFTY. The intraday low on this day will set the tone for the following trading sessions. Stay alert.”

As mentioned, I’ve been holding December 25,000 puts since late September. I plan to lock in substantial profits near the 23,900 level, but will retain a few positions until December’s end. Our cycle studies highlight the 5th August low of 23,893 as a critical pivot for Nifty. A daily close below this level would signal extreme bearishness for the overall market and potentially trigger deeper declines.  I don’t want to put a specific number here because that would deviate many from the whole process of trading with the periodic pullbacks. I have already shared the target with all of my subscribers.”

One very interesting thing that has happened during the last 4 weeks is that Indian markets have been falling while global markets, on the other hand, have been relatively quiet and stable. Although I have been expecting a selloff to take place in global markets as well, so far that hasn’t materialized exactly as I have been anticipating. This week, however, we’re seeing positive signs emerging in several US indices. Let’s delve into that.”

Navigating the Storm: A Guide to the Upcoming Market Turbulence

“This week in the U.S., there are clear and convincing signs of a major reversal on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI). However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have not yet fully confirmed this trend.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/10/12/nifty-finds-footing-but-u-s-market-challenges-loom/

“On October 12th, I predicted a market reversal in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) beginning on October 14th and in the S&P 500 beginning on October 16th. The indices, however, peaked one day later than anticipated.”

This week, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and the S&P 500 have suffered declines. As discussed earlier, the DJI has already shown signs of a reversal. However, the S&P 500 still needs to break its support level, currently situated between 5720 and 5740. Once this support level is breached, we could see a sharp decline towards 5610 and 5475 in the short term. If this anticipated downturn materializes, the S&P 500 could be poised for a more substantial long-term correction.”

Tech Earnings Frenzy and Potential Downturn: What to Watch Next Week

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has decisively reversed course, signaling a potential downward trend. While the S&P 500 is still hesitant, it’s likely to follow suit, dragging the Nasdaq along with it. Next week Based on historical patterns, the upcoming time cycles around October 31st and November 1st could be pivotal for U.S. indices. Traders and investors should be prepared for increased market volatility as these dates approach. Also, next week, big tech companies are reporting their earnings, which should bring some excitement to the otherwise boring markets. Personally, I’ll be tracking Microsoft’s results very closely.”

“While the current market conditions present challenges, it’s important to maintain a balanced perspective. By closely monitoring key support levels and upcoming earnings reports, investors can make informed decisions and potentially capitalize on opportunities that may arise from market volatility.”

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NIFTY’s Lifeline: Why NIFTY Bank Matters Now

NIFTY Bank is a pivotal index for the near future.

To propel NIFTY towards 23,900, NIFTY Bank must provide substantial support. Private sector banks have exhibited resilience during recent market downturns. This stability is likely to persist as long as NIFTY Bank remains above 50,900. A breach of 50,900 could trigger a sharp decline, potentially targeting 49,600 and 48,500 in the coming days.

ICICI Bank’s upcoming results will be closely watched. The stock has met our selling criteria, so its performance will be a key indicator. While there are no immediate time cycle dates for the index, several private banks have significant cycle dates on October 30th, which could influence the overall market.

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Market Rollercoaster: NIFTY’s Next Move

https://ganninsides.com/2024/10/18/nifty-breaks-support-bearish-trend-resumes/

“NIFTY successfully achieved its primary target of 24,350 today, as anticipated in my October 18th forecast. Consistent with our predictions, market volatility has intensified this week. Last Friday, I identified the 24,900-25,100 range as a strong resistance barrier. NIFTY’s attempt to breach this zone on Monday resulted in a sharp price reversal. “If the index remains below 24,800, it may continue to decline toward its next target of 23,900.”

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NIFTY Breaks Support, Bearish Trend Resumes

NIFTY’s breach of the critical support levels at 24,750-24,660 has signaled a renewed downward trend. Despite this downturn occurring amidst an incomplete retracement, we can anticipate a somewhat bumpy road ahead. Therefore, I recommend selling on rallies towards the 24,900-25,100 resistance zone. Potential targets for this bearish move include 24,350 and 23,900 in the coming days. Additionally, we expect volatility to increase significantly starting next week.

NIFTY: When Price Moves but Structure Doesn’t

NIFTY: When Structure Matters More Than Headlines

Repeated testing of a support zone rarely strengthens it; more often, it gradually weakens the foundation. That principle alone explains why our attention remains fixed on structure and setup, not on the narratives circulating across social media.

What makes the current phase interesting is that despite a sharp sell-off yesterday and a recovery today, the market has not altered its technical character. Volatility has increased, but structure has not broken. From a technician’s standpoint, that distinction matters.

As long as NIFTY spot continues to respect the 25,372–25,472 support band, the broader framework stays intact and the market remains in a constructive state—even if price action feels uncomfortable.

From a time-cycle perspective, Feb 23 represents a minor timing window, while Feb 27 stands out as a far more meaningful cycle date. This latter date carries a higher probability for NIFTY to resolve the ongoing consolidation and choose direction.

For a clean upside resolution, the index must deliver a decisive session above 25,850. Until that condition is met, volatility is not a warning—it is part of the process, and range-bound swings are likely to continue.

Should the support band fail, the setup would not immediately turn bearish. Instead, the structure would become more complex, implying a delay in the bullish path rather than its cancellation.

In short, nothing essential has changed. Price is fluctuating, sentiment is reacting, but time and structure remain in control. The market will speak clearly—when it is ready.

NIFTY – Geometry Suggests Controlled Strength Beneath Resistance

The geometrical setup in Nifty is currently very precise and technically compelling.

Today’s intraday high was achieved exactly at the midpoint of the circular arc projected for the day – a level that aligns perfectly at 25,921 on spot. This same midpoint level remains valid for Tuesday, February 10 as well. However, from Wednesday onward, the geometry begins to shift lower, and these reference levels gradually start declining.

The key arc-based support levels for the coming sessions are as follows:

Wednesday, February 11: 25,856

Thursday, February 12: 25,747

Friday, February 13: 24,667

The interpretation of these levels is straightforward yet very important – on each respective day, Nifty needs to sustain and close above these values to keep the present bullish structure fully intact.

Below these geometrical price–time levels, expect a sideways to consolidation trend to persist. In other words, unless the index convincingly holds above these supports, upward momentum is likely to remain capped and range-bound behavior can dominate.

Think of the January 5th swing high of 26,373 as the main target on a mountain peak. These geometrical levels act like base camps on the climbing route. As long as the index keeps holding above each base camp, the path toward that final peak remains safe and open. This is also the reason why, despite positive momentum, the market may feel as if it is getting temporarily “stuck at highs.”

Adding another critical dimension, the 1×1 Gann angle projected downward from the January 5 high of 26,373 currently stands at 25,752 on spot. This angle represents the line of equilibrium between price and time. To keep the ongoing bullish setup absolutely intact, the index must respect and hold above this 1×1 angle on a closing basis. Sustaining above it would significantly improve the probability of reclaiming the 26,373 high in the immediate future.

From a time-cycle perspective, geometry is also highlighting three important dates ahead:

February 17

February 18

February 20

These dates emerge as critical turning points based on time intersections calculated from recent lows, and they are likely to produce meaningful volatility or directional moves. Traders should remain alert around these sessions.

To summarize – the broader structure continues to remain constructively bullish. Price, time, and angle are currently aligned in favor of the bulls. As long as the index respects the above-mentioned geometrical supports and the 1×1 angle at 25,752, nothing materially negative is indicated on the charts.

What we are witnessing at the moment appears to be a healthy consolidation beneath resistance rather than any form of reversal.

For now, patience and discipline are key. Let the geometry guide the trade.