NIFTY EOD UPDATE FOR 06/03/2024

NIFTY had a strong day today on back of strength in PRIVATE BANKS and recovery in I.T. STOCKS.
in morning it tested the primary support of 22,220 which we were discussing since past 2 days  post testing those support INDEX regained its strength and went on to make a fresh high in final hour of TRADE!

BROADER MARKET accelerated its decline.

MIDCAPS and SMALLCAPS has been trending lower since they registered their TOP since 2nd week of FEBRUARY.

Even when NIFTY has been making new highs BROADER part of the MARKET had not been participating much.

Technically smallcap and midcap INDEX have not reached a point where they wont at all make a meaningfull recovery from here  but it is getting very close to that point!

LEVEL of 15,000 on NIFTY SMALLCAP,100 47,500 on MIDCAP,100 and 10,500 on MIDCPNIFTY are ultimate supports.

A daily close below these levels could further trigger fresh and powerful leg of decline which can further drag these INDICES another 6 to 8%  lower!

TECHNICAL UPDATE ON NIFTY

we were discussing 2 near term supports for NIFTY since MONDAYS close.

1st level was 22,220 and another level was 22,156 on spot.
I was expecting one of these supports to test in todays session!

today NIFTY tested 22,220 and then recovered.
frankly the rally in NIFTY BANK was surprising for me.
that actually had disturbed some equations let’s see how next few sessions goes especially it would be critical to see how BANKS performs!

on NIFTY supports are still the same.
to lift these supports higher NIFTY would require a print of 22,565 on spot.
Once it gets that supports would shift higher to 22,300!

TIME wise 5th and 6th MARCH were very important CYCLE DATES so all stocks and INDICES whether local or global if holds intraday lows of these dates on closing basis are likely to keep the setup sideways to up.

Only a close lower would turn the short term CYCLE trend LOWER!

NIFTY EOD UPDATE FOR 04,03,2024

NIFTY continues to print fresh highs.
but ended the day with yet another DOJI.
this hasn’t happenned for the first time  we have seen  INDEX doing this multiple times since early FEBRUARY.
so the PATTERN to stuck at highs still continues!

this in past hasn’t ended well for OPTION buyers,


again wont end well for them.
infact OPTION BUYERS have lost significant amount of their capital since 1st week of FEBRUARY!

for TOMORROW levels of 22,350 and 22,300 would be an important support once INDEX trades below that we could witness a decline towards 22,220 and 21,156 on spot in next 2 days.
As long as 22,300 is held the sequence of marginal higher highs should continue.


on upside  as we have discussed earlier  this rally should be capped under 22,600!

TIME wise TOMORROW and WEDNESDAY would be important CYCLE DATES for not only INDIAN MARKETS but for U-S-MARKETS as well.

NIFTY OPTIONS TRADE

NIFTY is unlikely to cross 22,500 in near future so I would be selling 22,500 call for MARCH series at 270.
this is for monthly series.
frankly i dont think you have to buy any hedge for this trade.
On 28th MARCH this call should expire at 0.

see there is a risk in every trade.
Our job is to acknowledge the market direction and execute appropriate trades managing our RISK.

BEST WISHES for the month ahead.

for non directional traders who have decent pockets.
below strategy is for you

sell 22500 straddle for 25th APRIL expiry,
combined premium as of now is 534+478=1012 points this would secure zone of 21,500-23,500 risk free for you.
now because our overall view is BEARISH  we shall hedge this trade with 21500 put of same expiry at 161.
this shall protect your downsides also once 22000 breaks on APRIL FUTURES you would have to cover your put shorts.

feel free to connect with me regarding any doubts.

MARKET UPDATE

NIFTY found support in zone of 21,800-21,850 which was an important support as we discussed in WEDNESDAY’S EOD UPDATE.
I posted clearly that dispite supports been broken and TIME CYCLES giving a BEARISH crossover downside move for NIFTY would not be straight forward atleast not until spot maintains above 21,800.

going forward that level of 21,800 would hold a meaningful significance.
for short term dispite todays upside nothing changes materially.
NIFTY upsides are likely to capped under the zone of 22300-22600 for entire month of MARCH.

during last 6 weeks INDICES have largely consolidated.
Infact returns on 2 month basis for NIFTY is less then 2%.
that actually shows loss of MOMENTUM on larger TIME FRAME.

february wasn’t really a trending month for NIFTY expecting MARCH to square that off.
this should be an intresting month.
for extreme short term because TOMORROW is a special session it’s going to be slightly complicated.
main reason would be,
what you buy today and tomorrow is not allowed to sell on MONDAY so for us critical day from here would be on TUESDAY.

NIFTY still falls in sideways category of TREND as of now but NIFTY BANK is certainly week as we have discussed earlier.
here we would still expect a break of JANUARY LOW in coming days.https://ganninsides.com/2024/02/28/nifty-eod-update-for-28-02-2024/

NIFTY EOD UPDATE FOR 28/02/2024

NIFTY broke below all key supports today.
So we do have REVERSAL signs in place.
As I posted earlier a daily close below 26th,FEBRUARY LOW would be a BEARISH sign on TIME FRONT.
now when we have got that so let’s see how things goes in next few days.

On NIFTY still downside move is not straight forward.
21,800-21,850 could still act as a near term support,
but once that also goes it’s all over because below 21,800 NIFTY could have a sharp fall towards the zone of 21,250-21,450 that too in a trending manner.

NIFTY BANK as we discussed in morning gave a print of 46,100 so setup for a waterfall decline has developed here.
Ideally it should move lower swiftly down and retest its JANUARY LOW of 44,429 as early as 8th,MARCH.

still watch out for SBI and RELIANCE a lower low below todays imtraday low would further intensify the momentum on downside.

AXISBANK UPDATE

AXISBANK is approaching a major PATTERN support at 1050 on cash.
A lower low below 1050 would open up targets of 1005 and 960 in coming days.
I have been BEARISH on private BANKS since last several weeks.
Infact HDFCBANK is my TOP pick on short side.
AXIS too is joining that list.
I could have went after ICICI too.
it’s only matter of selecting.
Let’s see,
watch out for supports.

MARKETS MID WEEK UPDATE

NIFTY have less then 48 hours to achieve our upside target objective of 22,325 on spot.
it cannot go on this way any more.
its baffling at the same time quiet hilarious that we are not getting even a 100 points of move on 1 direction.
Let’s see whether month end flows or MSCI rebalancing helps us to get those targets or not.

MONDAY was an important CYCLE DATE as we discussed earlier.
So as long as MONDAYS LOW holds on closing basis overall setup is likely to stay sideways to up.
Only a close below MONDAYS LOW would turn the setup BEARISH.

NIFTY BANK should be a key INDEX to track.
A print of 46,100 on cash would be a BEARISH sign.
A case for a waterfall decline could actually open up below that.
Watch out very closely.

RELIANCE should avoid the print of 2900 else entire NIFTY could feel the pain.
Things are approaching border lines critical 4 hours for MARKETS.