Category: Gann INSIDES INDICES UPDATE
MARKETS are approaching important resistance levels
NIFTY UPDATE
As we discussed in sundays post, 13th was a minor but important cycle date for NIFTY a failure to close below 13th,low would restrict INDEX from making further lower lows on immidiate basis.
this recovery on NIFTY from mondays low have reached a critical resistance today which stands at 22350 on spot.
If on any given day INDEX moves above 22350 all short term bearish options would dissappear for near term as long as spot maintains under 22350 those options would continue.
Since past few days i have shared 21700 as a medium term trend reversal level for NIFTY,
for some reasons markets are holding that.
And until and unless 21700 is protected there wont be any change on overall market texture.
the up-down trend of NIFTY will carry on as far as 21700 is held.
As analyst I can give a statement that 21700 will break, but as a trader until and unless market conferms that view i cannot put heavy trades on that view.
As of now we are still not in a type of market where we can carry over our trades.
So having a fixed frame of mind wont help for the time being.
U-S-INDICES too are at an intresting juncture
S&P;500 could print a fresh record high, post CPI DATA due today EVENING
As discussed in sundays post for S&P making a new high is not a major thing sustaining above 5300-5350 zone is something which holds greater significance.
As long as level of 5350 doesnt breaks risk of a sizable correction possibly towards 4800 in next 2,months would continue to strongly persist!
when it comes to DXY and U-S-10,Y they both have been in longer term uptrend since past several weeks.
dispite short term pullbacks broader uptrend hasn’t been compromised yet.
On upside on DXY we are working with target of 108 and on U-S-10,Y our working target of 5.30 is still intact till late july!
NIFTY near term update
NIFTY yesterday achieved our primary pattern target of 22100 on spot.
Not only that with yesterdays low of 21931 INDEX went very close towards our 2nd,target of 21865.
Post yesterdays sharp selloff INDEX is making a recovery attempt today,
Lets see how long this lasts.
Since today is a weekly close watch out for 22044 very closely.
A close today below 22044 would break sq9,channel on weekly basis, in addition to that it too would significantly increase odds for a medium term breakdown.
UNDERSTAND the MARKET MESSAGE and act accordingly
https://ganninsides.com/2024/05/03/nifty-is-getting-uncomfortable-at-highs/
As posted on last FRIDAY when INDEX printed a fresh record high and registered a sharp INTRADAY REVERSAL, I discussed on 3 key points.
Lets again revisit them.
1, listen the MARKET message.
3 reversal bars in last 25 days from its major gann angle resistance of 22776 is giving us a very important signal on the next potential direction on INDEX which could be on downside.
Lets see, what actually triggers that,
ongoing elections could be one of those excuse, or something external on geopolitical front, whatever it would be, reasons wont matter.
We only require a trigger which drags INDICES below their ultimate supports!
2 6th,MAY would hold a greater significance for all MARKETS
As noted couple of times during last week date of 6th,MAY was very significant specially the intraday lows of 6th would be considered as a key pivot for next several days!
On NIFTY we have broken mondays low convincingly hens no surprise that it is drifting lower in a staggered manner.
but on S&P mondays low is still intact so as long as that is holding we would have to rule out an immediate collapse.
if we are looking for major supports to break on NIFTY then global markets too have to turn lower.
Just to get primary indications for a reversal we would be closely watching for mondays intraday lows!
3, 22300 happens to be a pattern support on PRICE front
As we discussed on last Friday 22300 was a key pattern support a break of that level has opened up downside target objectives of 22100 and 21865 on spot.
On expected lines index is moving down towards 22100.
This move lower would be slow compared to the decline which we saw from last Fridays high.
Resistance on upsides are placed at 22600.
This break still is not sufficient to trigger a medium term reversal on NIFTY.
Thats still placed below 21700.
Now having that support from TIME and PRICE once again we would expect 21700 to break till 15th or 16th,MAY.
let’s see, with VIX at multi year highs, this TIME we could see supports going through finally.
just to finish it off, look for that open chart gap on NIFTY which persists at 22178.
this occured on 22nd,APRIL.
once that gap fills momentum would pickup further on downside!
NIFTY is getting uncomfortable at highs
NIFTY has been getting very strong rejection at its major gann angle resistance of 22776.
We have been discussing this level since past 2 weeks.
We now have 3 reversal bars in last 25 days from its gann angle resistance.
Interestingly last two rejections have took Pl during the same day and infact during the same hour.
this technicaly is not a good sign.
and no matter what everyone says the market message is absolutely clear that its not comfortable above 22776.
3 touch points are generally enough but in rare and special cases it could get 4.
Lets see breaking supports is going to be very critical!
for short term as i discussed earlier 6th,may is a very important cycle date.
So intraday lows of all INDICES is going to be a key price and time pivot for next few days.
So let’s see what low did INDICES prints on MONDAY!
Other than that 22300 is a vibration pattern support.
if that goes we would get a pattern breakdown, which would opened up downside target objectives of 22100 and 21865 on spot!
https://ganninsides.com/2024/04/30/positive-trend-continues-for-nifty/
POSITIVE TREND continues for NIFTY
lets revisit what we were expecting on last Friday!
ups and downs continues for LIFE and NIFTY
NIFTY is nearing its major gann angle resistance of 22776.
We did discussed this level on last Friday when INDEX was trading at 22450.
Once spot sustains above 22776 it should test other gann angles which stands at 22835 and 22955.
On downside support continues to stand at 22348 but if INDEX prints 22810 this support would shift higher to 22550.
TIME wise for near term 6th,MAY is going to be a critical natural cycle date which would have its impact on all markets accross all continents.
So we would be looking for the intraday range of 6th,may on all INDICES.
ups and downs continues for LIFE and NIFTY
SHORT TERM UPDATE on NIFTY
NIFTY continued with that same similar pattern which have been repeating since last 3 months.
INDEX moved exactly as it generaly moves on expiry day.
A pop higher during the expiry week is something I did discussed in my wednesdays post as well.
Just to put things in prospective series on series NIFTY was up 243 points and out of those 243 points 172 points came on final day of the series.
So this is how things have been for NIFTY and it has been going this way since late january!
Technicaly as i discussed earlier holding intraday lows of 23rd and 24th,APRIL on closing basis NIFTY has potential to test level of 22600 on upside, and on expected lines it did tested level of 22600 yesterday. after testing that level we have again seen INDEX taking a pause.
it looks like we would get a negative daily close today on NIFTY so it would be a first negative daily close for NIFTY after 18th,april.
this could break the momentum for market which have been going higher since 19th,april.
for near term trend for NIFTY is likely to stay positive as long as zone of 22300-22350 is held on closing basis.
both price and time setups would indicate further higher highs holding that support zone.
On upside how high it could go is a slightly tricky question? because levels of 22776-22835-22955 are very strong gann angle resistance on monthly charts of NIFTY! so lets see how it goes in next few days!
since this update is only for short term so i wont re emphasise on what has been going on for medium term.
I already have shared my view multiple times without any filters
So would leave it here for now!
MARKETS midweek update
NIFTY have extended its recovery beond 22100.
As I discussed in my sundays post a sustained trade above 22100 would keep INDEX safe from a risk of immediate colaps.
because 22100 happens to be a price and time equality level its significance for short term is going to stay considerably high, for next few days.
this level would come higher from next week onwards!
for medium term as i kept discussing throughout last week when markets were collapseing that a failure to break below 21710-21530 is unlikely to damage the medium term uptrend.
also it would keep the ascending flat topping pattern intact on NIFTY.
Until and unless that flat pattern is broken there wont be any clear positional trade on NIFTY.
market would keep doing this back and forth in broad range.
As an analyst I would expect a defining turn in next month because this market has been absolutely flat since last 3 months.
The monthly expiries of February march and now Apr have been absolutely flat.
Things cannot carry on this way forever.
Since last 3 months we have observed a repeated price pattern playing out during expiry week.
In which market pops higher closer to expiry and on first day of new series and post that for rest of the month things goes absolutely sideways.
Lets see whether similar pattern plays out this time or not!
short term update on NIFTY
for short term since 23rd and 24th,APRIL are critical cycle dates we would be looking for intraday lows for both these days.
A sustained trade below intraday lows of both these dates would drag index lower towards its price and time equality support of 22100.
A failure to sustain below lows would push index higher closer to 22600 on upside.
S&P;500;
S&P as expected have posted a good recovery holding its fridays low.
The move above 5006 have pushed index out of extreme weekness.
We discussed the importance of 5006 in my sundays article
So wont go in greater details now.
would like to add just one point here.
Current rebound is just a retracement of the major decline from 5265 once this rebound is done index is expected to drop very sharply in coming days which will add pressure on all other indices including NIFTY.
So watch out for that.
A negative daily close today or tomorrow would give early indications for resumption of another leg lower.
https://ganninsides.com/2024/04/21/the-buy-on-dipp-approach-is-about-to-face-its-real-test-now/
All eyes on 21710 now which happens to be the final level of support for NIFTY
NIFTY gave that bounce which i was expecting but that fell short under the projected level of 22450.
but it still went closer to 22350 and made a hard turn lower.
Todays gapdown is most likely a turning point in its longer term technical picture.
This market now is on a doorstep of entering a technical bear market.
still waiting for final confirmation to come through.
Once levels of 21710 to 21530 vreaks then that would officially end the bullish momentum which has been going on since October of 2023.
As long as this zone is held we wont look to commit large position on short side.
We have been of the view that sooner or later markets would take down their supports.
lets see
For short term level of 21710 is an ultimate support holding that we could see some recovery.
On upside 22100 is a pattern resistance along with a price and time equality level from its recent high of 22775.
So 22100 is a meaningful resistance from here.
On weekly charts if NIFTY closes below 21900 today then that would indicate a hexagon pattern breakdwn so watch out for that.
TIME wise 23rd and 24th,APRIL would be annual cycle dates for NIFTY so expect voletility to rise further during next week.
WHAT NEXT for NIFTY after achieving target of 22100
NIFTY as expected tested its near term pattern support of 22100 once it got a daily close below 22303. As discussed earlier current decline would be categorized as a pullback on larger degree time frame.
Atleast as long as levels of 21710 to 21530 stays intact on downside the possibility of a sizable correction does not persist.
We have been discussing on a major topping pattern which have been developing since early Feb on NIFTY and almost all major INDICES in past many of my followers had Genuine questions why its a kind of a TOPPING formation when INDEX keeps making new highs every 15 to 20,days..
that question is legitimate and understandable but answer of that question is quiet complicated. I have explained it to several of my clients and subscribers individually but explaining those facts in a blog post is not an easy task.
Specially if you are not aware on basic terms of gann theory then it would get more tough for you as a reeder.
So lets wait to see how things unfolds in coming days.
In case my analysis is correct then you have no idea what future have in store for MARKETS.
“SHORT TERM UPDATE:
“NIFTY”
NIFTY post achieving 22100 have shown a recovery which could extend closer to 22450 on spot.
Post this expected recovery we could see a hard turn lower which could drag price below its critical support of 21710.
Utilize this bounce to short INDEX for much lower targets in next month.
“S&P;500”
S&P after October 2023 have broken a rising vibration pattern this have massive bearish implications for medium term.
A break of 5060 have opened up downside target objectives of 4950 and 4840 on cash.
but in extreme short term because INDEX is approaching a gap zone which occured post NVIDIA results so that could trigger a relief rally which can take index closer to 5100 and change.
Primary trend have turned lower for both indices. A expected bounce would make risk rewards more lucrative for fresh shorts.lets see.
gann,insides 