The Waiting Game: Why Patience Is Key for SBI Investors

At times, as an analyst, you feel that enough is enough. And when we look at SBI, we experience that same feeling. Despite multiple attempts, we never got any sort of trade here. The trigger points which we discussed never broke on either side. But we will keep trying, and hopefully this time it should go through. As we speak, the setup is bullish here, but we would still prefer to wait until the stock takes out 856 on the upside. Once that’s done, we would then anticipate a rally toward 897 and 928 on a cash basis on the upside, and maybe even more than that. But for now, we would restrict ourselves until then. On the time cycle front, as long as the stock sustains above the August 11th intraday high, the setup is bullish, and it’s just a matter of time before 856 is taken out on the upside.

A Gann-Based Geometrical Analysis of the NIFTY

The Gann-Based Geometrical Setup

Building on yesterday’s brief overview, this analysis provides a detailed breakdown of the geometrical setup for the NIFTY.  The  methodology  is  applied  to  the  recent  swing  from  the  June  30th  high  of  25,669  to  the  August  8th  low  of  24,339.    The  time  duration  of  this  swing  is  39  calendar  days,  while  the  price  range  covers  1,330  points.

Calculating the 45-Degree Angle

The  core  of  this  calculation  involves  deriving  a  45-degree  angle  for  both  price  and  time.    To  determine  the  price  component,  the  total  range  of  1,330  points  is  divided  by  8,  yielding  a  value  of  166.25.    This  means  that  multiples  of  166.25  from  the  high  or  low  represent  the  45-degree  price  angle.    For  the  time  component,  the  39-day  duration  is  divided  by  8,  resulting  in  a  value  of  approximately  5  days.    In  simple  terms,  this  signifies  that  the  1×1  angle  rises  by  roughly  166  points  for  every  5  calendar  days,  starting  from  the  August  8th  low.

Practical Application & Forecast

The  application  of  this  angle  to  recent  market  action  provides  a  clear  trajectory.    The  angle  was  at  24,505  on  August  13th,  reaching  24,671  by  August  18th.    It  is  projected  to  hit  24,837  on  August  22nd,  25,004  on  August  28th,  and  25,170  on  September  2nd,  with  a  forecast  for  the  NIFTY  to  cross  its  June  30th  high  around  September  16th.   This illustrates a powerful method for projecting future price movements based on past cycles.

Complexity and Conclusion

It is important to acknowledge that this is a basic approach to Gann theory.  The  analysis  can  become  extremely  complex  when  factoring  in  multiple  active  cycles  and  the  interrelationship  of  various  market  swings.    As  a  result,  traders  should  note  that  the  index  must  maintain  its  position  above  these  key  spot  values  on  the  given  dates  to  sustain  a  bullish  structure.   For now, this serves as a foundation for understanding Gann angles, with more advanced applications to be explored in the futur.”

Beyond the Charts: The NIFTY’s Ascent Is No Coincidence

With today’s gap higher, the NIFTY has cleared all its resistances on the price front.  On  the  time  front,  with  a  daily  close  above  24,600  on  August  13th  (which  was  the  August  11th  intraday  high),  the  time  cycles  gave  a  clean  breakout.   It was only a matter of time before the price would have also joined, and the index chose a perfect day to generate that breakout.

As  discussed  earlier,  August  14th  and  August  18th  were  significant  time  cycle  dates.    The  most  specific  cycle  date  is  likely  going  to  be  August  18th,  because  that’s  going  to  complete  a  full  circle  on  the  time  cycle  front  from  its  September  27,  2024,  top.   So now, with things aligning well on both the price and time fronts, it’s a good time for us to turn bullish, or rather, I would say, extremely bullish for the next few weeks.

Of course, short-term things would keep happening, and we would obviously keep discussing that regularly. But directionally, we would be looking for a fresh all-time high for the NIFTY, above its September 27, 2024, peak of 26,277 on spot, as late as October 16, 2025. Maybe it could come much before that, but that’s the maximum time it could take. There is a simple math applied behind this date; try to figure it out first. If you still find it tough, then do let me know, and I will explain it.

Today’s  rally  is  also  significant  on  the  geometrical  price  and  time  equation,  which  at  a  1×5  angle  from  its  April  7th  low  of  21,743  comes  at  24,815  on  spot.   The calculation is a bit complex, but what we need to understand is that as long as this price level is holding, the trend for the index is likely to stay extremely bullish. In the morning, I already shared the near-term upside targets in a broadcast list, so I won’t mix it up here. Let’s wrap things up for now.”

TCS UPDATE

If TCS can hold its recent low at a cash price of 2991, it has the potential to rally initially toward 3110. Should that level be surpassed, the upward movement could extend up to 3170. From a time-cycle perspective, Monday is a critical date.
Please note, this is a risky trade and should be approached with caution. If this view is indeed realized, TCS has the potential to rally more than 10% from its current level. However, patience is advised for now.

S&P 500: A Technical Outlook

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/01/sp-500-the-clock-is-ticking-for-a-proper-reversal/

As we discussed, August 1st was a critical time cycle date for the S&P 500. A decline towards the 6200 mark was highly probable, and what followed was quite interesting: the market crashed to 6200 on that very day before reversing sharply. Since the 6200 support held, setups have turned bullish again, with the market clearing its July 31st high. This now signals a further rally towards the 6651 mark, which could occur within the next few days. The next significant turn date for the S&P 500 is August 25th.
In the near term, support lies at 6380, and buying on dips is advised as long as that level holds.

Strategic Moves: Preparing for Nifty’s Potential Swing

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/11/the-final-verdict-niftys-medium-term-fate-hangs-in-the-balance/

The current outlook for NIFTY remains stable as long as Monday’s intraday low is successfully held. This suggests that a bearish trend is unlikely to develop in the near term and a rally is the most probable next move.
A clear bullish signal will be triggered by a breakout above yesterday’s high of 24,703. This is a critical resistance zone, spanning from 24,703 to 24,761. A confirmed move above this range is expected to initiate a sharp upward rally.
In preparation for this potential shift, we have significantly reduced our short positions. This strategic adjustment was made because the majority of our targeted stocks have already met or exceeded their price objectives. As a result, we will be maintaining a very low-risk profile on our stock positions moving forward.
From a time-cycle perspective, the next two sessions are crucial for a potential trend reversal. NIFTY is set to complete a 90-degree time rotation from its April 7th low on August 14th, and a 360-degree rotation from its September 27th, 2024 low on August 18th. We advise all traders to remain vigilant and manage risk effectively in anticipation of a sharp market swing.