NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY: Stability Emerging—But Don’t Jump the Gun
The NIFTY is finally giving us those primary signals of stability we discussed, which is a welcome sight. However, let’s keep the enthusiasm in check: the short-term market structure is still fundamentally weak. We cannot call the bottom until the index secures a daily closing price above 25020 (spot). This level is the line in the sand. Our Strategy: Respect the Line
The long-term conviction remains bullish, but we have to be patient and respect the setup. The biggest mistake right now would be anticipating the rally instead of waiting for the market to prove it.
The strategy is simple and disciplined: The fresh, sustainable move we’re waiting for is entirely contingent upon clearing that 25020 resistance. Until then, we stay constrained. Let the market show its hand before we commit.

Tracking NIFTY’s Pivot Window: Technicals Meet the Turning Point

NIFTY resistance continues to stay at 25020 on spot, as we discussed earlier; there are no changes on that front.
Because it’s a battle between the short- and medium-term setup for NIFTY, we have not added to my long positions as of now. We would wait for the index to register a reversal before we do that. Since most of our trades are for the December contract, there is no requirement to accumulate further positions at this point in time.
Let’s look at the immediate setup: it is still bearish, so we cannot rule out further lower lows. However, somewhere tomorrow or on Wednesday, the index could possibly initiate a process for a reversal. This should be interesting; let’s see.

From the Ashes: RBL Bank’s Resurgence and Imminent Surge

RBL Bank has demonstrably forged a durable bottom at its recent swing low of 243. As long as that level is fiercely defended, the measured move target on the upside is an unyielding 306. Reaching this milestone will trigger a momentous breakout on its yearly charts, unleashing a massive, sustained rally for the medium term.
For the short term, the zone from 256 to 266 is an ironclad support band. Holding this fortress will allow the stock to easily obliterate its recent swing high of 279. Once that resistance is crushed, it will immediately surge toward 294 and 306.
On the time-cycle front, September 29th will be a pivotal and critical date.

Market Analysis: Riding the Bullish Wave in PSU Banks

Since late August, I have been bullish on Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banks. The entire weakness in NIFTYBANK was sponsored by the weakness in private sector banks, while PSU banks were still doing relatively better. Hence, I suggested a couple of stocks from this basket to subscribers during the third week of August. These trades were on Indian Bank and SBI. Let’s revisit them below.

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/25/indianbank-septembers-cycle-and-the-road-ahead/

Let’s start with Indian Bank. I identified a significant support zone, which was in the 640 to 660 range on the cash market. The stock tested the 660 mark and bounced sharply from there, clearing the 685 level on the upside and achieving our primary target of 703 on cash. The stock continues to stay significantly bullish, and it should only be a matter of time before our second target of 733 is achieved.

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/20/the-waiting-game-why-patience-is-key-for-sbi-investors/

SBI has been the most boring stock in the entire NIFTY basket. It has been testing our patience for the past few months, because we knew that this sort of consolidation would produce a significant and powerful move on either side. We continued to believe it would generate that move on the upside, and we have been watching it patiently. Thankfully, that patience paid off yesterday when the stock moved above 856 on cash. As discussed above, the immediate targets are 897 and 928 on cash in the near term, but we would eventually be thinking of 1000 here within the next few days. Let’s see.

The Clock is Ticking: Why the NIFTY’s Rally Needs an Extra Gear

The NIFTY’s decisive close above its August high of 25,153 is a huge signal. In trading terms, this is a textbook breakout, and it confirms that the market’s technical strength is indeed on solid ground. This kind of move is exactly what analysts look for to validate an upward trend, suggesting the path of least resistance is higher from here.

The Rally’s Missing “Oomph”

However, there’s a crucial observation that many might miss: the speed of this rally. While the direction is right, the pace feels off.  The  geometrical  calculations  of  price  and  time  from  the  June  30th  high  of  25,669  suggested  that  the  index  should  have  already  surpassed  that  point  by  September  16th.   The fact that it hasn’t gives the rally a lackluster feel, as if it’s missing that final, explosive burst of energy.

The Bigger Picture Still Holds

Despite this slower pace, the overall forecast for a new record high by October 16th still holds. This suggests that the ultimate destination is more important than the speed of the journey. The ideal scenario would be for the NIFTY to finally clear that June 30th high as soon as possible, as it would fully validate the rally’s strength and put it firmly back on the expected trajectory.”

Plz check out my past posts below

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/18/beyond-the-charts-the-niftys-ascent-is-no-coincidence/

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/19/a-gann-based-geometrical-analysis-of-the-nifty/

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/27/market-at-a-crossroads-tariffs-are-not-the-problem/

https://ganninsides.com/2025/09/05/a-pivotal-week-why-september-8th-is-a-make-or-break-moment/

The Marathon, Not the Sprint: S&P 500’s Relentless Rally

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/14/sp-500-a-technical-outlook/

It feels like the S&P 500 has been running a marathon, not a sprint.
The Steady Climb
The index’s movement since early August has been all about quiet endurance. It’s not the kind of explosive, high-drama rally that makes headlines. Instead, the market has been climbing with a calm, deliberate strength, patiently absorbing any and all selling pressure. This slow and steady ascent is often a better sign for long-term health than a vertical spike, showing a market that’s building a solid foundation as it goes.
Just a Stone’s Throw Away
After weeks of this methodical climb, the S&P 500 is now right on the doorstep of a major milestone. The upside target of 6651, a level that was first put out on August 14th, feels incredibly close to being reached, perhaps even today or tomorrow. There’s a strong sense that the upcoming Fed meeting could be the final nudge needed to push the index across this finish line.
A Much-Needed Breather
Even if the market hits that target, it’s wise to expect a brief pause in the 6651 to 6681 area. After such a long, steady climb, the market needs to catch its breath. This isn’t a sign of weakness; it’s a completely normal part of a healthy trend. The path of this market remains firmly pointed higher, and the best way to approach it continues to be buying into any temporary dip. It’s just a matter of waiting for the right moment.