Author: SAAHIL BELIM

MY NAME is SAAHIL and I have been actively trading in EQUITY MARKETS from 2014. I have been using Gann theory in my TRADING JOURNEY since 2016. my approach to Gann THEORY is totally different than what you may have seen or heard in various YOUTUBE VIDEOS. I have developed multiple MATHEMATICAL MODELS which are based on METHODS described by sir gann in his courses. I never had used any kind of CHARTS to identify the TREND. hens I never share CHARTS to illustrate my view. I like to keep things SHORT and to the POINt!

Nifty & Bank Nifty: Approaching Critical Resistance Levels

“The next 2-3 sessions for NIFTY will be extremely critical, as flagged off in Wednesday’s post. Resistance for NIFTY spot is at 23,500, and we are almost reaching it today. Any price between 23,500 and 23,700 would be an ideal opportunity to capitalize on fresh short trades, with initial target objectives of 22,800. The budget is a key event risk, but our cycle studies point towards further lower lows going forward. Similarly, Nifty Bank is nearing a critical resistance zone between 49,700 and 50,300 in cash terms. An inability to breach this resistance could trigger a 5-7% decline in the near term.”

SBI: The Next Few Days Could Be Crucial

SBI faces a significant potential turning point tomorrow and the day after, January 31st and February 1st.  A trend reversal is highly likely around these dates.  Technically, the 780-800 range presents formidable resistance, suggesting a probable move lower while remaining below this zone.  Should this anticipated downturn materialize, initial targets are 724 and 681 (cash) in the short term.  Looking at a slightly longer horizon, SBI appears to be a compelling short opportunity on any 30-40 rupee rally from the current market price, targeting 576 within the next 3-4 months. For those with a higher tolerance for market fluctuations, this represents a high-conviction trade for the first half of 2025.

Infosys (INFY) at a Crossroads: Analysis and Trading Strategy

Infosys (INFY) has a bearish structure. Significant resistance is located between ₹1900 and ₹1930. We prefer to initiate fresh short positions here for potential target objectives of ₹1812 and ₹1760 on a cash basis. The ₹1812 level is specifically important from a timing perspective, as it is the intraday low from January 27th, which was a critical cycle date.  Sustained trade below ₹1812 is likely to trigger a sharp decline towards the ₹1600 zone. The next major cycle date is due on March 13th.”

Evaluating Market Outlook Ahead of the Union Budget

“With the Union Budget on the horizon, it’s time to question our bearish narrative, which has guided our market analysis since late September.”

“Indian markets are about to head towards a very important event: the Union Budget. So, it’s an ideal time to review our approach, or rather, I should say it’s time to relook at our bearish approach, which we have been carrying since late September.”

“Our bearish outlook remains intact as the NIFTY spot has yet to reach our projected downside target of 21700. We will continue to capitalize on rallies by shorting, aiming to solidify our bearish position.

To optimize our strategy, we have two options:

1 Reduce trading activity: Minimize market participation while maintaining our short bias.

2 Await a rally to 23500: Utilize a potential rally as an opportunity to establish new short positions.

Our overarching objective is to maintain a short-selling bias until our projected downside target is achieved.”

The NIFTY index currently faces resistance at 23,500. Support for the index lies within a critical band ranging from 22,800 to 22,600. A decisive break below this support band could trigger a sharp decline, potentially leading to a significant market correction on immidiate basis.

As previously noted, with the India VIX exceeding 17, a sustained unidirectional move in either direction appears unlikely. Historically, elevated volatility levels often precede a decline in asset values.

On TIME front Even without considering the Union Budget, the 3rd and 4th of February are significant cyclical dates for the NIFTY index. These dates are likely to witness heightened volatility in the market.

Regarding the time projection for a potential test of the 21700 level, I anticipate this occurring by March 8th. However, there’s a notable possibility that this level could be reached as early as February 19th. This date holds significance as it marks the 144th day since the NIFTY’s September 27th high.

The Union Budget is certainly a significant event for the Indian markets, but it’s not the only factor driving market dynamics today. The concurrent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the impending January series monthly expiry tomorrow are likely to significantly elevate excitement levels among market participants.”

“In conclusion, the NIFTY index is poised for a period of heightened volatility. By closely monitoring key resistance and support levels, and remaining cognizant of both domestic and global events, investors can navigate this dynamic market environment more effectively.”

Bearish Outlook Intensifies for S&P 500

https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/17/prepare-for-turbulence-key-dates-risks/

On January 17th, I shared a post with my subscribers in which I discussed the market setup for Indian and U.S. markets. The overall plan was to stay on the short side on both markets. Specifically on the S&P 500, I pointed out January 24th as a price and time squaring date, which usually indicates a trend reversal. So, a turn was likely, and today’s decline further strengthens the bearish outlook going forward. Despite the S&P moving higher in the past week, I maintained the same outlook. I would expect that we likely have a double top breakdown from the 6100 zone. Let’s see if this view holds true; then we are likely headed towards 5600 in the next few weeks. “As I previously warned, bearish and precarious market conditions were evident in leading tech stocks like NVIDIA and Microsoft. I expect these conditions to deteriorate further.”