POSITIVE TREND continues for NIFTY

lets revisit what we were expecting on last Friday!

ups and downs continues for LIFE and NIFTY

NIFTY is nearing its  major gann angle resistance of 22776.
We did discussed this level on last Friday when INDEX was trading at 22450.
Once spot sustains above 22776 it should test other gann angles which stands at 22835 and 22955.

On downside support continues to stand at 22348 but if INDEX prints 22810 this support would shift higher to 22550.

TIME wise for near term 6th,MAY is going to be a critical natural cycle date which would have its impact on all markets accross all continents.

So we would be looking for the intraday range of 6th,may on all INDICES.

AMBUJA CEMENTS UPDATE

AMBUJA,CEMENTS have its results due on 1st,MAY before that STOCK is in a strong shape,
Technicaly a print of 641 would put it in a fresh orbit for further upsides!

Once it gets above 641 VIBRATION PATTERN would indicate targets of 677 and 717 on cash in coming days.
TIME wise 25th,APRIL was a key CYCLE DATE so a daily close above 25th,high would insure much higher levels in near future!

ups and downs continues for LIFE and NIFTY

SHORT TERM UPDATE on NIFTY

NIFTY continued with that same similar pattern which have been repeating since last 3 months.
INDEX moved exactly as it generaly moves on expiry day.

A pop higher during the expiry week is something I did discussed in my wednesdays post as well.
Just to put things in prospective  series on series NIFTY was up 243 points and out of those 243 points 172 points came on final day of the series.
So this is how things have been for NIFTY and it has been going this way since late january!

Technicaly as i discussed earlier  holding intraday lows of 23rd and 24th,APRIL on closing basis NIFTY has potential to test level of 22600 on upside,  and on expected lines it did tested level of 22600 yesterday. after testing that level we have again seen INDEX taking a pause.
it looks like we would get a negative daily close today on NIFTY   so it would be a first negative daily close for NIFTY after 18th,april.
this could break the momentum for market which have been going higher since 19th,april.

for near term trend for NIFTY is likely to stay positive as long as zone of 22300-22350 is held on closing basis.
both price and time setups would indicate further higher highs holding that support zone.
On upside how high it could go is a slightly tricky question? because levels of 22776-22835-22955 are very strong gann angle resistance on monthly charts of NIFTY! so lets see how it goes in next few days!

since this update is only for short term so i wont re emphasise on what has been going on for medium term.
I already have shared my view multiple times without any filters
So would leave it here for now!

https://ganninsides.com/2024/04/24/markets-midweek-update/

MARKETS midweek update

NIFTY have extended its recovery beond 22100.
As I discussed in my sundays post  a sustained trade above 22100 would keep INDEX safe from a risk of immediate colaps.
because 22100 happens to be a price and time equality level  its significance for short term is going to stay considerably high, for next few days.


this level would come higher from next week onwards!

for medium term as i kept discussing throughout last week when markets were collapseing that a failure to break below 21710-21530 is unlikely to damage the medium term uptrend.
also it would keep the ascending flat topping pattern intact on NIFTY.
Until and unless that flat pattern is broken there wont be any clear positional trade on NIFTY.

market would keep doing this back and forth in broad range.
As an analyst I would expect a defining turn in next month  because this market has been absolutely flat since last 3 months.
The monthly expiries of February march and now Apr have been absolutely flat.
Things cannot carry on this way forever.

Since last 3 months we have observed a repeated price pattern playing out during expiry week.
In which market pops higher closer to expiry and on first day of new series and post that for rest of the month things goes absolutely sideways.
Lets see whether similar pattern plays out this time or not!

short term update on NIFTY

for short term since 23rd and 24th,APRIL are critical cycle dates we would be looking for intraday lows for both these days.
A sustained trade below intraday lows of both these dates would drag index lower towards its price and time equality support of 22100.
A failure to sustain below lows would push index higher closer to 22600 on upside.

S&P;500;

S&P as expected have posted a good recovery holding its fridays low.
The move above 5006 have pushed index out of extreme weekness.
We discussed the importance of 5006 in my sundays article

So wont go in greater details now.

would like to add just one point here.
Current rebound is just a retracement of the major decline from 5265  once this rebound is done  index is expected to drop very sharply in coming days which will add pressure on all other indices including NIFTY.
So watch out for that.
A negative daily close today or tomorrow would give early indications for resumption of another leg lower.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/04/21/the-buy-on-dipp-approach-is-about-to-face-its-real-test-now/

RELIANCE view before its quarterly results

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES would come up with quarterly results today evening.
So let’s understand its technical setup before todays critical event!

According to time studies  the high registered here on 4th,march at 3024 seems a complete high  so i wont expect a fresh higher high here in near future.
TIME wise 23rd and 24th,APRIL  are going to be very critical annual time cycle dates as i posted in my sundays post, hens irrespective of how results are,, I would expect stock to stay under pressure during next 2,days  and specially on 24th,APRIL!

On PRICE front zone of 2880-2910 is a near term pattern support.
Once it breaks we could see a drop towards the MARCH low of 2825 and once that also breaks next potential target on downside would be 2730 on cash.
for slightly medium term I am expecting stock to drop below January low!

so whats the trade here?

An easy trade would be to short MAY future and hedge that with an OTM call.


or wait for support zone to break here which is at 2880 if 2880 is breaking then go for ATM puts on long side!

THE BUY on DIPP approach is about to face its real test now

“SUMMARY”

This week we completed 3 weeks of TIME duration from Lunar Eclipse which occured on 25th,MARCH.
I shared a detailed post on 24th,MARCH explaining the impact and its consequences on prevailing trend.
I posted very clearly that eclipses always produce REVERSAL of ongoing trend but it would take TIME of atleast 3,weeks before we see that vibrational impact to reflect on prices!

We also discussed that  , this anticipated REVERSAL would not be limited to just PRICE it would expand beond PRICE and would also trigger a REVERSAL on overall accessive BULLISH naretive which have been one of the primary factor behind the strong rally from October lows.

So as expected we got everything which we were looking for.
Just for reference sharing the linc for 24th,MARCH article below.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/03/24/could-lunar-eclips-spark-a-minsky-moment-in-financial-markets/

lets start with U-S-INDICES

“S&P”

S&P;500 almost achieved our primary target of 4950 at fridays low.
So the pattern which broke below 5060 tested its primary goal  going forward a daily close below 4950 would extend the decline towards its next pattern target of 4840 on downside  a failure to close below 4950 would generate a bounce in near term! For s&p price time equality level from October 2023 low comes at 5006 so going forward consider 5006 as a line in sand between week and a very week setup.
Since 5006 is a price and time equality level technical setup would evolve around this level for next few days.
In case index maintains distance from 5006 then next equality level on downside will come at 4700!


In late MARCH when S&P was making new highs on daily basis i kept discussing on a distinct possibility for a significant reversal because on monthly charts INDEX was testing a major gann angle resistance which was in zone of 5250-5350  and we saw INDEX top out at 5265.

“NASDAQ”

along with S&P  NASDAQ too have broken down.
In MARCH  I have discussed 16500 as a major resistance and we have seen index after taking its time reverse down very sharply.
A break of 15800 here triggered a higher degree breakdown which have medium term target objective of 14500 on downside.
do watch out for NVIDIA as well  739 is a very critical level for long term a close below 739 would trigger a noteworthy collapse which could drag stock below 350 in next few months.
We shall see together how it would impact overall markets.

both these indices have not only broken below their critical supports, along with that they also have broken below an ascending flat topping pattern which was developing since early march.
A breakdown of such category is going to vring markets much lower then their current levels.
So be prepared for that as an investor.
but as a trader we would have to approach things one step at a time.

“update on NIFTY”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/04/07/gann-insides-weekly-market-update-for-subscribers/

As noted in above post which was shared on 7th,APRIL I was looking for a test of 22800 before anticipating a REVERSAL  and on expected lines NIFTY went to 22775 on 10th,APRIL and registered a very sharp reversal in subsequent days.
it almost lost 1000 points from its high in just 6 trading sessions!

Going forward as we have been discussing since past few days  this decline from the TOP still isn’t enough to trigger a medium term reversal in market.
To trigger a reversal of that magnitude  NIFTY would have to break levels of 21710-21530 on spot.
A break below this range would trigger a breakdown of an ascending flat topping pattern  which is under development since mid Feb.
U-S-INDICES have already broken this pattern  but on NIFTY we are still waiting for that final confirmation to come through!

For short term as we discussed on Friday

https://ganninsides.com/2024/04/19/all-eyes-on-21710-now-which-happens-to-be-the-final-level-of-support-for-nifty/

holding 21710 there was a recovery due towards its resistance of 22100.
and it did got a remarkable recovery which even exceeded above that resistance level.

still 22100 would remain a key level, because thats still a price and time equality level from the high of 22775.
So as far as index restraints from a daily close below 22100 the possiblity of an imminent collapse wont be on offer for now.
Anyways the hexagon pattern which we discussed on Friday is still intact on weekly charts.
Lets see whether that breaks during next week or not!

RELIANCE is going to be very critical stock for next week.
because the market reaction on its results on 23rd,april would co-inside with an annual time cycle date for NIFTY  both 23rd and 24th,APRIL are going to be very important cycle dates for not only NIFTY but for overall market as well!

Thats it for now.

All eyes on 21710 now which happens to be the final level of support for NIFTY

NIFTY gave that bounce which i was expecting but that fell short under the projected level of 22450.
but it still went closer to 22350 and made a hard turn lower.
Todays gapdown is most likely a turning point in its longer term technical picture.
This market now is on a doorstep of entering a technical bear market.

still waiting for final confirmation to come through.
Once levels of 21710 to 21530 vreaks then that would officially end the bullish momentum which has been going on since October of 2023.
As long as this zone is held we wont look to commit large position on short side.
We have been of the view that sooner or later markets would take down their supports.
lets see

For short term level of 21710 is an ultimate support holding that we could see some recovery.
On upside 22100 is a pattern resistance along with a price and time equality level from its recent high of 22775.
So 22100 is a meaningful resistance from here.
On weekly charts if NIFTY closes below 21900 today  then that would indicate a hexagon pattern breakdwn  so watch out for that.

TIME wise 23rd and 24th,APRIL would be annual cycle dates for NIFTY so expect voletility to rise further during next week.

WHAT NEXT for NIFTY after achieving target of 22100

NIFTY as expected tested its near term pattern support of 22100 once it got a daily close below 22303. As discussed earlier current decline would be categorized as a pullback on larger degree time frame.
Atleast as long as levels of 21710 to 21530 stays intact on downside the possibility of a sizable correction does not persist.

We have been discussing on a major topping pattern which have been developing since early Feb on NIFTY and almost all major INDICES in past many of my followers had Genuine questions why its a kind of a TOPPING formation when INDEX keeps making new highs every 15 to 20,days..
that question is legitimate and understandable but answer of that question is quiet complicated. I have explained it to several of my clients and subscribers individually but explaining those facts in a blog post is not an easy task.
Specially if you are not aware on basic terms of gann theory then it would get more tough for you as a reeder.

So lets wait to see   how things unfolds in coming days.
In case my analysis is correct then you have no idea what future have in store for MARKETS.

“SHORT TERM UPDATE:

“NIFTY”

NIFTY post achieving 22100 have shown a recovery  which could extend closer to 22450 on spot.
Post this expected recovery we could see a hard turn lower which could drag price below its critical support of 21710.
Utilize this bounce to short INDEX for much lower targets in next month.

“S&P;500”

S&P after October 2023 have broken a rising vibration pattern this have massive bearish implications for medium term.
A break of 5060 have opened up downside target objectives of 4950 and 4840 on cash.
but in extreme short term because INDEX is approaching a gap zone which occured post NVIDIA results so that could trigger a relief rally which can take index closer to 5100 and change.

Primary trend have turned lower for both indices. A expected bounce would make risk rewards more lucrative for fresh shorts.lets see.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/04/15/markets-are-approaching-near-term-supports-but-a-convincing-break-is-required/