NIFTY gave that bounce which i was expecting but that fell short under the projected level of 22450.
but it still went closer to 22350 and made a hard turn lower.
Todays gapdown is most likely a turning point in its longer term technical picture.
This market now is on a doorstep of entering a technical bear market.

still waiting for final confirmation to come through.
Once levels of 21710 to 21530 vreaks then that would officially end the bullish momentum which has been going on since October of 2023.
As long as this zone is held we wont look to commit large position on short side.
We have been of the view that sooner or later markets would take down their supports.
lets see

For short term level of 21710 is an ultimate support holding that we could see some recovery.
On upside 22100 is a pattern resistance along with a price and time equality level from its recent high of 22775.
So 22100 is a meaningful resistance from here.
On weekly charts if NIFTY closes below 21900 today  then that would indicate a hexagon pattern breakdwn  so watch out for that.

TIME wise 23rd and 24th,APRIL would be annual cycle dates for NIFTY so expect voletility to rise further during next week.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/04/07/gann-insides-weekly-market-update-for-subscribers/

As posted in my sundays post to subscribers  above 22600 NIFTY did expanded higher towards 22800.  going forward this 22800 area would act as a meaningful resistance for MARKETS. here we would have to deal with an overlaping market which is of no use for retail traders specifically for them who work with buying OPTIONS!

I have said this multiple times in past that its not an easy market for trend followers because at higher levels this market lacks momentum.
the primary reason for that is a TOPPING formation of a larger pattern which in gann theory is categorized as (ascending FLAT)! more and more patience is required to pass through such pattern formations.

its not going to continue this way forever. TIME wise 18th,to,24th,APRIL   is a very strong TIME window which could generate a long pending REVERSAL across national and international markets. Let’s see! I have been looking for this APRIL end window since late FEBRUARY  thats the only reason i suggested and personally deployd options strategies to sell 22500 call for MARCH series and at the same time also sell 22500 straddle for APRIL series.
these trades have done well and would make maximum profits as well.
honestly i was expecting a vreakdown in late MARCH but because 21800 was held on closing basis i had to dial back with those expectations and had to carry on with same trades and approach!

MAY and JUNE are going to be absolutely critical months for MARKETS because what dint happened in late MARCH would finally happen during MAY.
but better to wait until markets register a REVERSAL!

for short term trend continues to staay on upside.
And that would persist this way until NIFTY spot holds above 4th,APRIL low of 22303 on closing basis! Higher highs cannot be ruled out as long as that low is held!

NIFTY has registered a strong REVERSAL on a key TIME CYCLE DATE and from a very strong resistance of 22600.

I have discussed the resistance of 22600 several times since mid MARCH!   going forward todays sharp INTRADAY REVERSAL still may not put INDEX out of overall sideways trend neither it signify the HIGH as an established TOP!
This actually further finetunes the (ascending flat topping pattern) more clean and the most accurate assessment of recent price action.
Since this PATTERN is developing on weekly charts hens thats taking more time and still can take few more days to complete!
TIME wise today and tomorrow are annual cycle dates as i discussed on Tuesday.
So intraday lows of both these days would be very critical!

As expected after a  400 points UP day on 28th,MARCH NIFTY has gone sideways at highs. I posted on that day as well that  these kind of days should be utilize to sell  OPTIONS specially CALL OPTIONS.


same setup was there in early MARCH same setup is again available in early APRIL! Lets see again the same PATTERN repeats in APRIL or not?  I would think it would!

Technically as i explained earlier  that there is no trade for OPTION buyers since late February the ideal trade has to sell monthly OPTIONS with appropriate risk management in place.  Now when VIX is approaching 11  that equation of selling OPTIONS is slightly getting more risky!

“CRITICAL LEVELS TO WATCH FOR NIFTY”

levels wise I have given upside tragictry of 22600 with 1% more here and there  as maximum stretch which should contain this move at highs.  this is not a MARKET which is going to give a runaway move on upside. So better not to get excited with the feeling of fresh highs. As a trader these highs are of no use!

for short term as long as spot stays above 22080-22180 on downside  expect current sideways to UP trend to prevail for few more days.  TIME wise 4th and 5th,APRIL would be critical CYCLE TURN DATES!

Watch out for DXY and BRENT very closely  both are giving breakout which wont go well with RISK assets.

U-S-INDICES are already feeling that pain today   lets see whether this time they take down there supports or not.  5120 very critical for S&P,500!

On 21st,MARCH  I discussed that we should limit our trading activity on NIFTY  and at the same TIME should also cover the shorts.
we were looking for a pullback towards 22,150 in a normal sinario which we easily got  but post that the required thrust to resume next leg lower had been missing 21840 was that key support level breaking which another leg lower was due as of yesterday!

with todays rally that level have shifted higher  but broadly the TIME has come to increase trading activities on NIFTY again!  this doesn’t necessarily mean to close your eyes and go short straight away but need to get prepared to pull the trigger as and when short term technical signals flashes conformations!

these 300 to 400 pt up days are perfect days to short monthly calls! but that requires a proper risk management mechanisms in place.  unfortunately for RETAIL TRADERS the conditions aren’t compelling enough to buy OPTIONS.
Strategically still as traders selling OPTIONS would make money!  until and unless VIX moves above 15  this is the only way to go!

Technically NIFTY is within the framework of TOPPIMG formation this PATTERN in gann theory is known as ASCENDING FLAT TOP” where INDEX keeps retesting the high every 3 to 4 weeks.
A daily close below 21800 would had broken it but since that dint happenned the PATTERn keeps rotating and this has kept everyone on their toes specially those who prefer to follow trend.
because they are trying to find something which is not there!

As I have repeatedly mentioned in my past articles 22600 is that level which should hold at highs  few points here and there.
Once U-S-INDICES turns lower expect NIFTY to break 21710 soon.
Matter of more days nothing else! Once quarterly edgestments are done things should get back to basics!

https://ganninsides.com/2024/03/21/how-to-approach-this-pullback-on-indices/