The market is giving us a clear, professional signal right now: the NIFTY has hit its new record high, but the fact that the broader market still lacks that necessary momentum confirms we’ve entered a crucial rotational phase. This observation is astute, as large-cap heavyweights have done their job and are now due for consolidation, making it an ideal time to strategically trim those excessive long positions carried over since the start of the rally as a crucial exercise in risk management and capital deployment. The focus must now pivot decisively to the mid-cap space, which is where the real alpha generation will reside in this next phase, capitalizing on the structural earnings resilience seen in this segment. It is a matter of shifting from index-level flows to high-conviction, stock-specific opportunities, requiring patience to identify those clear, high-probability ideal setups—particularly in high-growth sectors like Industrials, Technology, and certain Financials—before initiating fresh longs.

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/14/sp-500-a-technical-outlook/

It feels like the S&P 500 has been running a marathon, not a sprint.
The Steady Climb
The index’s movement since early August has been all about quiet endurance. It’s not the kind of explosive, high-drama rally that makes headlines. Instead, the market has been climbing with a calm, deliberate strength, patiently absorbing any and all selling pressure. This slow and steady ascent is often a better sign for long-term health than a vertical spike, showing a market that’s building a solid foundation as it goes.
Just a Stone’s Throw Away
After weeks of this methodical climb, the S&P 500 is now right on the doorstep of a major milestone. The upside target of 6651, a level that was first put out on August 14th, feels incredibly close to being reached, perhaps even today or tomorrow. There’s a strong sense that the upcoming Fed meeting could be the final nudge needed to push the index across this finish line.
A Much-Needed Breather
Even if the market hits that target, it’s wise to expect a brief pause in the 6651 to 6681 area. After such a long, steady climb, the market needs to catch its breath. This isn’t a sign of weakness; it’s a completely normal part of a healthy trend. The path of this market remains firmly pointed higher, and the best way to approach it continues to be buying into any temporary dip. It’s just a matter of waiting for the right moment.

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/01/sp-500-the-clock-is-ticking-for-a-proper-reversal/

As we discussed, August 1st was a critical time cycle date for the S&P 500. A decline towards the 6200 mark was highly probable, and what followed was quite interesting: the market crashed to 6200 on that very day before reversing sharply. Since the 6200 support held, setups have turned bullish again, with the market clearing its July 31st high. This now signals a further rally towards the 6651 mark, which could occur within the next few days. The next significant turn date for the S&P 500 is August 25th.
In the near term, support lies at 6380, and buying on dips is advised as long as that level holds.

https://ganninsides.com/2025/02/15/decoding-market-dynamics-a-transformative-week-for-nifty-nifty-bank-and-the-sp-500/

“The S&P 500 has reversed very sharply after testing its significant resistance zone. On February 15th, I shared a blog post in which I anticipated a major reversal around February 18th to 21st, from the zone of 6144 to 6219. The index reached a high of 6147 on February 19th, and hopefully, that’s the high I’ve been looking for since late January. Going forward, the zone of 5770 to 5820 will be a temporary support; once that breaks, a sharp drop towards 5450 would occur. For the near term, regarding timing, today, February 28th, and March 11th will be critical cycle dates.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/17/prepare-for-turbulence-key-dates-risks/

On January 17th, I shared a post with my subscribers in which I discussed the market setup for Indian and U.S. markets. The overall plan was to stay on the short side on both markets. Specifically on the S&P 500, I pointed out January 24th as a price and time squaring date, which usually indicates a trend reversal. So, a turn was likely, and today’s decline further strengthens the bearish outlook going forward. Despite the S&P moving higher in the past week, I maintained the same outlook. I would expect that we likely have a double top breakdown from the 6100 zone. Let’s see if this view holds true; then we are likely headed towards 5600 in the next few weeks. “As I previously warned, bearish and precarious market conditions were evident in leading tech stocks like NVIDIA and Microsoft. I expect these conditions to deteriorate further.”

The S&P 500 experienced a sharp decline yesterday following the FOMC meeting outcome. Prior to this decline, the index had been trading within a relatively narrow range, exhibiting sideways movement.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/03/niftys-double-edged-sword-a-risky-play-for-traders/https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/03/niftys-double-edged-sword-a-risky-play-for-traders/

“We have been diligently monitoring the S&P 500, and I have consistently shared technical updates on its performance. Notably, on December 3rd, I published a post highlighting December 6th as a pivotal turning point based on time cycle analysis. Furthermore, I identified the price range of 6080 to 6120 as a critical resistance zone, aligning with the confluence of price and time-based forecasting models.”

“As anticipated, the index reached its peak on December 6th, reaching a high of 6100. Subsequently, the index exhibited a reversal in trend. Moving forward, the 5840 level assumes significant importance as a critical support level. A decisive break below this level would trigger a more pronounced downside move, with an initial target set at 5620. Further analysis and insights will be provided upon the breach of the 5840 support level. From a time cycle perspective, the next significant date to observe is January 2nd.”

Okay, let’s shift our focus to NVIDIA.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/13/nvidias-128-support-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine-for-the-market/

NVIDIA experienced a significant decline earlier this week, breaching the critical support level of 128. As I previously discussed on Friday, this breach had the potential to trigger broader ramifications within the tech sector. Yesterday’s trading session provided a glimpse into this potential impact.”

“On NVIDIA, I would be looking for levels of 110 and 90 over the course of the next few weeks. Markets globally are about to turn extremely volatile from here on, so it’s best not to get carried away with wide fluctuations. Eventually, markets should be headed lower from here.”

“The coming weeks promise a dynamic market environment for traders.”

“The next 48 hours are crucial for U.S. indices, as I predicted in my weekend post. October 31st and November 1st are significant TIME Cycle dates, and we’ve reached that point. This timeframe is likely to trigger substantial fluctuations in all U.S. indices, marking a potential shift in market trends. Volatility is expected to increase, making market conditions more dynamic. Additionally, next Monday, all global indices will complete a 90-day period since their August 5th low. Overall, we anticipate a period of heightened market activity and uncertainty.”