NIFTY  should move on from this ELECTION outcome till tomorrow,


and focus should shift back to technical setup once again.
MARKETS are still highly voletile and thats understandable after what happenned yesterday.
Yesterdays carnage had flagged few authentical questions on the credibility of the long term BULL-MARKET in INDIAN INDICES whether Yesterdays fall was a one off or is this something which would convert into a trend?
thats something we would come to know in next few days.

with the break of 21700 yesterday  setup is shaping up for a medium term decline but to conclude that i would still prefer to wait for some more evidence
Atleast i would wait for a daily close below  21700.

for immidiate term until this dust settles i am looking for a wide range of 22500 on upside and 21600 on downside.

If you have made decent profits yesterday then avoid Taking trades on INDICES.

NIFTY through out the day have sustained below its support of 22950-23000 which we discussed in morning.
Going forward 21700 is a medium term support if that breaks dramatic changes would take place on medium term setup for NIFTY.
So watch out for 21700 very closely.

NIFTY on counting date have a defined range on upside and downside,


the direction would primaryly depend on where NDA tele settleds down.
still as per patterns zone of 22950-23000 could act as an important support.
for today atleast holding this support zone MARKETS should trend up.

On upside at 23530 there is a pattern pivot if thats taken away rally would extend sharply higher.
Trade with very tite stops,
Voletility would be significantly higher.

NIFTY today achieved our near term pattern target of 22575 on spot,


so the breakdown which happened yesterday have reached its primary destination today.
Going forward market would wait for the EVENT to pass through before making next move.
but for now technical setup is of sell on rise, for targets of 22355 and 22125,


need to be on edge.
Voletility has to be managed until pole results are out!

NIFTY yesterday posted a daily close below 22908 so since yesterdays close the strength of the uptrend reduced dramatically and with todays open below 22786 which i shared earlier as a final stop for all longs, things have turned slightly BEARISH.
it yet again proved out to be a failed breakout.
it once again proved out to be a failed breakout.
For short term with todays break lower  our near,term pattern objectives would be 22575 and 22355 on spot.
Only 3 days to go for election results so expect more voletility ahead.

As discussed on last Wednesday a move above 22350 would eliminate all bearish options for short term.
and on last Thursday in a dramatic last hour surge we saw NIFTY moving above 22350.

Since then  we have seen INDEX moving up steadily.
And most likely its again marching towards all time high territory of 22800 on spot.

on downside support stands at 22300 on spot holding 22300 NIFTY is likely to trend higher.
If in case 22300 breaks then we could again see INDEX testing levels of 22100 and 21900  in few days.

On TIME front  this week we have one natural cycle date for INDIAN and U-S-INDICES which would be on 24th,MAY.
Specially for U..S MARKETS 27th,may is going to be vary critical TIME CYCLE DATE.

NIFTY UPDATE

As we discussed in sundays post,  13th was a minor but important cycle date for NIFTY  a failure to close below 13th,low would restrict INDEX from making further lower lows on immidiate basis.

this recovery on NIFTY from mondays low have reached a critical resistance today which stands at 22350 on spot.

If on any given day INDEX moves above 22350 all short term bearish options would dissappear for near term as long as spot maintains under 22350 those options would continue.

Since past few days i have shared 21700 as a medium term trend reversal level for NIFTY,
for some reasons markets are holding that.
And until and unless 21700 is protected there wont be any change on overall market texture.
the up-down trend of NIFTY will carry on as far as 21700 is held.
As analyst I can give a statement that 21700 will break, but as a trader until and unless market conferms that view i cannot put heavy trades on that view.

As of now we are still not in a type of market where we can carry over our trades.
So having a fixed frame of mind wont help for the time being.

U-S-INDICES too are at an intresting juncture

S&P;500 could print a fresh record high, post CPI DATA due today EVENING

As discussed in sundays post  for S&P making a new high  is not a major thing sustaining above 5300-5350 zone is something which holds greater significance.
As long as level of 5350 doesnt breaks risk of a sizable correction possibly towards 4800 in next 2,months would continue to strongly persist!

when it comes to DXY and U-S-10,Y they both have been in longer term uptrend since past several weeks.
dispite short term pullbacks broader uptrend hasn’t been compromised yet.
On upside on DXY we are working with target of 108 and on U-S-10,Y our working target of 5.30 is still intact till late july!

NIFTY yesterday achieved our primary pattern target of 22100 on spot.
Not only that  with yesterdays low of 21931 INDEX went very close towards our 2nd,target of 21865.
Post yesterdays sharp selloff INDEX is making a recovery attempt today,
Lets see how long this lasts.
Since today is a weekly close  watch out for 22044 very closely.
A close today below 22044 would break sq9,channel on weekly basis, in addition to that   it too would significantly increase odds for a medium term breakdown.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/05/03/nifty-is-getting-uncomfortable-at-highs/

As posted on last FRIDAY when INDEX printed a fresh record high and registered a sharp INTRADAY REVERSAL, I discussed on 3 key points.
Lets again revisit them.

1, listen the MARKET message.

3 reversal bars in last 25 days from its major gann angle resistance of 22776 is giving us a very important signal on the next potential direction on INDEX which could be on downside.

Lets see, what actually triggers that,
ongoing elections could be one of those excuse, or something external on geopolitical front, whatever it would be, reasons wont matter.
We only require a trigger which drags INDICES below their ultimate supports!

2 6th,MAY would hold a greater significance for all MARKETS

As noted couple of times during last week  date of 6th,MAY was very significant specially the intraday lows of 6th would be considered as a key pivot for next several days!

On NIFTY we have broken mondays low convincingly  hens no surprise that it is drifting lower in a staggered manner.
but on S&P mondays low is still intact so as long as that is holding we would have to rule out an immediate collapse.

if we are looking for major supports to break on NIFTY  then global markets too have to turn lower.
Just to get primary indications for a reversal we would be closely watching for mondays intraday lows!

3, 22300 happens to be a pattern support on PRICE front

As we discussed on last Friday 22300 was a key pattern support a break of that level has opened up downside target objectives of 22100 and 21865 on spot.
On expected lines index is moving down towards 22100.
This move lower would be slow compared to the decline which we saw from last Fridays high.
Resistance on upsides are placed at 22600.

This break still is not sufficient to trigger a medium term reversal on NIFTY.

Thats still placed below 21700.
Now having that support from TIME and PRICE once again  we would expect 21700 to break till 15th or 16th,MAY.
let’s see, with VIX at multi year highs,  this TIME we could see supports going through finally.

just to finish it off, look for that open chart gap on NIFTY  which persists at 22178.
this occured on 22nd,APRIL.

once that gap fills momentum would pickup further on downside!