https://ganninsides.com/2024/09/08/the-september-storm/

“NIFTY reached its near-term pattern target of 24,755 on Monday morning but was unable to close below that level, halting further downside price expansion in the immediate term. The index recovered after hitting this support, but the current setup remains bearish. Technically, it will continue to be bearish as long as NIFTY spot doesn’t close above its September 2nd high of 25,333. While this seems unlikely, if it happens, it won’t change our view of a potential test of the 24,020-24,320 zone, which is also its multi-pattern support on the weekly charts. In all likelihood, a test of these levels is inevitable. Therefore, regardless of the market’s short-term movements, the overall trajectory remains bearish.”

“Tonight’s U.S. CPI release could significantly impact markets. While investors were once fixated on CPI, recent shifts in focus toward labor markets have added complexity to the equation. A cooler-than-expected CPI might initially buoy equities but could weaken the dollar, potentially impacting the yen and, consequently, stocks. A hotter-than-expected reading could force a reassessment of rate cut expectations, potentially triggering stagflation. Additionally, S&P and NASDAQ are approaching their 60-day mark from their July highs. This could lead to increased volatility, which is generally not bullish for the market on more sustained basis beond a day or two.”

“If you’re looking to capitalize on potential volatility, consider adding 25,000 December puts. This strategy aims to profit from market fluctuations. Hold the trade until October 15, allowing the market to naturally evolve. To maximize gains, sell any upside above 25,300 and consistently trade against the prevailing price trend during this period. While I anticipate increased intraday volatility, the overall market remains relatively calm. Let’s see how the next few days unfold for both Indian and global markets.”

The recent Gann cycle date on September 2nd has significant implications for the Nifty index. The high reached on that day now serves as a formidable resistance level. If the index fails to break above this resistance, a potential downward correction could be in store.
When we say a break that actually means a break on a closing basis.
The current spot price support for Nifty remains at 25000. As long as this level holds, the index is likely to remain in a consolidation phase. However, a break below 25000 would signal a potential weakening trend.
Keep a close eye on the INDIA VIX. A reading above 15.2 indicates heightened volatility, which could be a precursor to a market downturn. Additionally, we anticipate a surge in volatility starting next week.
The time period between September 9th and 29th is expected to be particularly volatile for the Nifty and other major markets. Traders should be prepared for significant price swings during this time.

“NIFTY reached its target of 25,250 today. Given its strong price structure, we anticipated further upward momentum. As the market’s momentum continues, it’s advisable to ride the wave. As long as it persist. Following today’s move, NIFTY’s spot support has risen to 25,000. Therefore, 25,000 and the intraday low of August 28th are now crucial support levels. Holding above these levels will indicate continued market strength.” For INDIAN and GLOBAL MARKETS, September 2nd will be a crucial cycle date. Due to several major markets being closed on Monday, Tuesday will effectively be the cycle date for these markets. This date holds significant potential to trigger a notable near-term reversal across all risk assets. Let’s observe if this cycle date has reinforced the importance of the aforementioned support levels. As traders, we should remain patient and wait for supports to break before initiating reverse trades. As I’ve consistently emphasized, the months of September and October are likely to be highly volatile, so be prepared for such market conditions.

NIFTY makes a new high but as usual “Despite NIFTY reaching a new high, significant inter-market divergence persists. While NIFTY IT has led the recent rally, NIFTY BANK, RELIANCE, and NIFTY AUTO have failed to confirm the uptrend. If these indices and RELIANCE don’t catch up, NIFTY could quickly reverse and break below its supports. Therefore, caution is advised, and excessive optimism should be avoided.” “The market has been relatively stagnant in recent sessions, but activity is expected to increase. Tomorrow morning, the market will likely react strongly to NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report. Later in the day, the Reliance Industries AGM will also have a significant impact on market sentiment. These events are expected to influence market performance in the coming days.” On downside The 24,700 level remains a strong pattern support. As long as the index holds above this level, it should remain relatively stable. However, today is also a minor cycle day, as I discussed in my Sunday post. Therefore, today’s intraday low will serve as a crucial support level on a closing basis. If the index closes below today’s intraday low, it could signal an early breakdown of the pattern support.”

The Nifty index has failed to reach a new high by its August 27th deadline, signaling a potential shift in its underlying trend. This breakdown of the bullish time channel, which has been in place since January, suggests a change in the market’s momentum. “Currently, the character change is confined to time due to the bullish price setup, which still supports further upward movement. In near term.
On the downside, support lies at 24,700. Holding above this level, NIFTY could potentially rise to 25,250 on spot.
The next 24 hours are crucial for global markets, as NIFTY’s recent development could influence broader market sentiment.

NIFTY is getting really intresting.
  irrespective of PRICE. the more important thing is the TIME CHANNEL in which NIFTY has been trading since JANUARY of 2024.
 
  within this CHANNEL  NIFTY has been making fresh highs after every 22-25 days.
  the last high for NIFTY was Registered on 1st,august  so adding 25 days from there takes us to 26th, august so if NIFTY manages to print a fresh ATH  till 26th or the27th of august  then everything would continue to stay fine.

but if this time pattern breaks then that won’t be a healthy sign for the overall uptrend.
Lets see. Hold on till SEPTEMBER if you wish to make major trades on INDICES. because the ultimate action actually lies in SEPTEMBER and OCTOBER for a major trending move.
For short term yesterdays low of 24522 would be a critical support.

NIFTY today if gives a weekly close below 24330 then that would trigger a (SQUARE-OF-9)  breakdown on its weekly CHARTS.
since NOVEMBER,2023 NIFTY-SPOT have maintained the BULLISH shape of its SQ9 pattern hens markets have successfully managed to continue with its
BULLISH trend,
since OCTOBER,2023 low NIFTY has been moving in a upward rising channel which currently have its lower edge below 24010 on its weekly charts.

this channel consists major PATTERNS like SQ9 and HEXAGON.
So even if NIFTY breaks the SQ9 PATTERN today or on next FRIDAY  that still wont be sufficient to reverse the structural BULL MARKET.
thats going to break only below a weekly close under 24010 on spot.

so as long as 24010 is holding the legitimate argument of a medium term uptrend will continue to persist.

Now for short term as i discussed earlier holding Mondays low markets globally are going to stay fine.

and thats what actually happenned.

for next week 13th,aug is going to be a key cycle date.

but the most significant date on time front would be on 19th,August.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/08/04/increased-volatility-in-global-markets-can-drag-nifty-below-its-critical-supports/

it was a great day  if you had a BEARISH view on markets.
As posted yesterday    I was expecting NIFTY to test 24200 and break its critical support of 24000 in immidiate future but markets would do it today itself that wasn’t expected but since things are unfolding in anticipated framework  there is nothing to complain.

As I discussed very clearly in above post that the intraday low of 5th,August is  going to be absolutely critical  so if this selloff has to intensify further then INDICES must sustain below todays intraday low.

If that doesn’t happen then we should get a kind of a pullback or consolidation  for near term  before next round of selloff takes place.

So lets not get carried away with todays move and focus on basics.

BUDGET is behind us now •

and the biggest take away for markets from yesterdays budget was the substantial increase in short and long term capital gains taxes.

where the long term capital gains tax has been increased by 25% from what it was,
and,
the short term capital gains tax has been increased by whopping 33% from what it was.
STT too have been increased significantly.

So if you are a professional trader or an investor in INDIAN MARKETS then these revised taxes are going to hit you very badly.

but if you are someone who does not approach this market professionaly then you are not going to understand that what it actually means.

Anyways lets move on and discuss NIFTY.

As discussed earlier level of 24000 on NIFTY spot is going to be a significant support which if breaks is going to put the entire market under deep pressure.
but as long as thats holding its all fine.

On downside 24250 is a near term pattern support once that breaks index should also break yesterdays low of 24074 as well looking at NIFTY BANK it should only be a matter of time before 24000 breaks on NIFTY.

24000 is such a strong support that, index would require a overnight gapdown to break that.
Lets see.