“Picking up where we left off on November 14th, let’s revisit the NIFTY and its current outlook.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/11/14/nifty-50-technical-analysis-and-trading-outlook/

On NIFTY, I still maintain the view I shared on November 14th. As mentioned earlier, the possibility of a decent bounce holding around 23,000 continues to persist.”

The rally from Monday’s low and the decline from Tuesday’s high have had no impact on our overall view. Our critical support marker remains firm at 23,000 on the spot market. As noted earlier, 23,700 on the upside is a very important level.”

A sustained trade above 23,700 would make the structure more stable, potentially helping the index rally towards 24,100 and even 24,400 in the coming days. Let’s see if our view of a potential bounce is correct. If so, we should also be able to predict a resumption of another severe sell-off after the anticipated bounce.”

For now, let’s closely observe market behavior until next Monday. Only a sustained trade below 23,000 would force me to change my view.”

Let’s dive into the US market!

https://ganninsides.com/2024/11/06/nifty-recovers-us-markets-post-election-outlook/

S&P: From Election Euphoria to Reality

“On S&P, as I mentioned on November 6th, once the election euphoria settles down and the FOMC meeting is out of the way, I expect S&P to turn lower. I also pointed out two very critical time cycle dates, which were November 11th and 14th. As we all know, S&P reached its peak on November 11th, and since then, the index has been trending lower.”

For short term

“The 5840 level is a crucial short-term support. Holding this level could keep the trend flat. However, a breach would likely reinforce our bearish outlook. Cross-asset indicators, including the dollar and 10-year yields, strongly suggest a downward trajectory for the S&P. Let’s watch closely.”

On the time front, the next major cycle date is due on December 6th.”

For medium term On the price front, the S&P still has to fill its election results day gap, which occurred on November 6th, to complete the topping process. That gap fills at 5780 on cash. Let’s see once that fills; a move towards 5660-5680 should be on the cards.”

Nifty reached our projected target zone of 23500-23600, as discussed in yesterday’s post. As mentioned, the possibility of a significant rebound remains strong.  On the downside, 23000 acts as strong support, a 45-degree trendline drawn from the September high. Typically, such strong support holds on the first attempt.”

Therefore, we anticipate a bounce as long as 23000 holds. In the near term, we no longer hold a bearish outlook, at least for the next few days.”

We’ll see. If Nifty starts to sustain below 23000, then next targets are much lower. However, for now, let’s not dwell on that bearish scenario. We are no longer interested in continuing with shorts.”

In fact, once Nifty starts to sustain above 23700, we would be looking for a rally towards 24100 and 24400 on the spot index during the next few days.”

Until early December, the Nifty 50 index is primarily driven by price action, as specific cycle dates aren’t indicated on the TIME front.”

For NIFTY, the 8th and 11th of November were major cycle dates. As discussed earlier, both these dates were significant for the near-term trend. Holding above the intraday lows of both these dates, we can expect a flattish kind of trade for this week. Only a daily close below both these dates’ lows would trigger a fresh leg of sharp decline.”

On the price front, 24,100 was a critical support. A break of that has eliminated the possibility of a bottom formation at 23,816. So, further lower lows are certainly due. At best, we can get a higher high above 24,537, but that too won’t signal a broader trend shift.”

Yesterday, NIFTY tested the 24,510 resistance level but was unable to sustain the momentum. As long as the index remains below this level, it suggests that the recent rebound may have peaked.” On downside The 24,100 level is a crucial support level. If this level is breached, a retest of the 23,800 and 23,600 levels could be on the cards in the coming days.” Given the current market conditions, high volatility is expected. It’s advisable to exercise caution in your trading decisions.”

NIFTY is experiencing the anticipated rebound, which began on Monday. This upward momentum is likely to persist for a few more days, provided the spot price remains above the 23,800-24,000 range. Resistance levels are at 24,510 and 24,800.”

Significant cycle dates for NIFTY are due on November 8th and 11th. Expect a strong price reaction around these dates.

Once this rebound ends we would expect further lower lows on NIFTY and overall market.”

U.S. Markets: A Post-Election Outlook.”

Regardless of current futures trends, we still anticipate lower lows for the S&P 500 once the election euphoria subsides and the FOMC meeting concludes. The next major cycle dates for U.S. markets are November 11th and 14th.”

What may seem insignificant now could make a lot of sense in next few weeks.”

NIFTY achieved our 2nd target of 23900 today. NIFTY’s decisive break below 23,900, as anticipated since mid-October, marks a significant turning point. Traders who’ve been short since late September should consider securing profits. While the current downward momentum is strong, a temporary pause at the 23,600 level is possible. A close above this level could trigger a deeper rebound. However, if 23,600 fails to hold, a decline towards 23,000 seems likely. Key dates for NIFTY’s next major cycle are November 8th and 11th.”

“Tomorrow is shaping up to be a crucial day, particularly for the banking sector. As predicted in my Sunday post, the 28th of October marked a significant turning point for the Nifty index. If the index holds above yesterday’s intraday low, we may see a period of consolidation. However, a decisive break below this level could significantly accelerate the decline.”

NIFTY Bank is a pivotal index for the near future.

To propel NIFTY towards 23,900, NIFTY Bank must provide substantial support. Private sector banks have exhibited resilience during recent market downturns. This stability is likely to persist as long as NIFTY Bank remains above 50,900. A breach of 50,900 could trigger a sharp decline, potentially targeting 49,600 and 48,500 in the coming days.

ICICI Bank’s upcoming results will be closely watched. The stock has met our selling criteria, so its performance will be a key indicator. While there are no immediate time cycle dates for the index, several private banks have significant cycle dates on October 30th, which could influence the overall market.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/10/18/nifty-breaks-support-bearish-trend-resumes/

“NIFTY successfully achieved its primary target of 24,350 today, as anticipated in my October 18th forecast. Consistent with our predictions, market volatility has intensified this week. Last Friday, I identified the 24,900-25,100 range as a strong resistance barrier. NIFTY’s attempt to breach this zone on Monday resulted in a sharp price reversal. “If the index remains below 24,800, it may continue to decline toward its next target of 23,900.”