https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/15/nifty-navigates-choppy-waters-support-holds-but-risks-remain/

“NIFTY, as discussed in the 15th January post, 23,000 is a strong support and holding that. There is a short-term probability of a rebound towards the zone of 23,550 to 23,700, which is the resistance zone.

However, this shall only be a temporary respite; the medium-term trend remains firmly bearish. So, post this rebound, expect further lower lows.

On the time front, until 24th January, vibrations are likely to stay on the higher side, so it’s better to be watchful.”

“Expect significant market declines, impacting both India and U.S. markets, potentially starting on Tuesday due to the U.S. market holiday on Monday. The period from January 17th to 24th will likely be characterized by high volatility. Pay close attention to Tuesday and Friday, January 24th, as particularly critical dates. Friday, January 24th, is a price and time squaring date for the S&P 500, which could lead to interesting market movements. Exercise caution and consider short positions.”

“Should Nifty breach the 23,000 level, the next significant support zone may lie around 22,600 on the spot market.”

“A potential Bank of Japan rate hike next Friday could trigger significant market volatility. This unexpected move would likely reverberate across global markets, demanding close attention and a reassessment of investment strategies.”

“As mentioned in my Sunday’s post, the November low of 23,263 for NIFTY was psychologically important. However, more importantly, the zone of 23,000 to 23,100 is a critical support because it represents a 45-degree angle from its September high of 26,277. Consequently, on Monday, the index, as expected, broke its November low.”

“However, NIFTY has thus far managed to maintain its critical support level at 23,000. As long as this support holds, a rebound towards the resistance zone of 23,550 to 23,700 remains a possibility.”

“While pockets within the Indian market exhibit signs of oversold conditions and may trigger short-term rebounds, the underlying bearish medium-term trend remains firmly in place.”

“The S&P 500 has also filled its election results day gap. Further lower lows are certainly possible, but a short-term pullback may occur.”

“On the time front, for both Indian markets and U.S. markets, some very strong cycle dates are lined up from January 17th to 24th. Expect some wild price swings in Indian and global markets starting around Friday.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/13/niftys-volatile-descent/

“As anticipated last Friday, December 17th emerged as a pivotal turning point for Nifty and other NSE indices. This precipitated a sharp decline yesterday. Today’s breach of the 24,180 support level has unequivocally confirmed a significant breakdown, a scenario I’ve been highlighting for the past two weeks.”

“Today’s intraday low dipped below 24,180, raising concerns about a potential significant shift in market momentum. However, a decisive daily close below 24,200 is necessary to confirm a major breakdown. We await today’s closing price for a clearer picture of the market’s direction.”

“Should the market close below 24,200 today, it would strongly suggest a breakdown with an initial downside target of 23,800 on the spot market. Given the significance of tomorrow and Friday in the time cycle analysis, these dates will require close monitoring.”

NIFTY broke the recent consolidation on the downside today, but in a highly volatile manner.

Yesterday, NIFTY registered its first daily close below the December 9th low of 24,580. This timely breach suggests a potential southward turn. However, a sustained break below the 9th December low is necessary to intensify the downside momentum and trigger a more significant reversal.

On the price front, as discussed on Monday, the major support zone for NIFTY lies between 24,200 and 24,400 on a spot basis. A closing price above this zone is likely to delay the reversal process and could even trigger a rally towards the 25,000-25,200 range in the near future.

The upcoming week is crucial for the overall market outlook. December 17th, 19th, and 20th mark significant turning points for several NSE indices. The next 45-60 days will be a period of intense market activity and potential volatility for all market participants.

NIFTY remains range-bound, displaying a neutral bias. The anticipated reversal signals haven’t materialized, neither in terms of price action nor timeframe. Consequently, no immediate action is necessary.”

The index was confined to a 350-point range established during the last hour of trading on the previous Thursday. This consolidation was likely to persist until a decisive break above or below this range.”

Despite this short-term indecision, I maintain a bearish outlook for NIFTY. Even a higher high above 24,857 won’t alter this underlying bearish sentiment. This range is expected to break within the next three trading sessions.”

“NIFTY’s rally has paused. The 24,200-24,400 support is crucial. A potential correction may be on the horizon.”

NIFTY’s Predicted Surge: A Timely Bounce

I’ve been bullish on NIFTY since mid-November. I highlighted the 23,000 level as a critical 45-degree angle support, akin to a sturdy bulwark, which I anticipated would hold on the first attempt. As expected, the index respected this level and rebounded.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/03/niftys-double-edged-sword-a-risky-play-for-traders/

On December 3rd, I predicted that this rebound was nearing its peak and that future price action would be more influenced by support levels than resistance. This cautious approach remains valid for next few days as well.”

On PRICE FRONT.”

Due to the recent rally, NIFTY’s support zone has shifted higher to the 24,200-24,400 range. As long as the index continues to hold above this support, the anticipated reversal may take some time to materialize.”

“It appears the Nifty’s recent rally may have peaked on December 5th. While this is a strong possibility, we need further confirmation before drawing definitive conclusions.”

On TIME FRONT.”

“As I previously discussed, December 9th is a very important time cycle date. The intraday low of the 9th would be considered a key pivot of reference for confirming a potential reversal.”

December 6th also held some significance as a minor time cycle date. A sustained move below the intraday low on December 6th would signal a bearish turn for the overall market.”

“Holding these key time cycle pivots suggests a positive trend outlook for near term.”

I’m still awaiting confirmation of a market reversal, both in terms of price and time. Once this confirmation is received, we could potentially witness one of the most significant market sell-offs in the past three years.”

A Timely Reminder: Risk Management in Volatile Markets

“Given the potential for a significant market correction, now may be an opportune time to reassess your portfolio and consider risk management strategies. Stay informed, stay disciplined, and adapt to changing market conditions. Let’s navigate this journey together.”

NIFTY Hits Target, Potential Reversal Ahead

NIFTY today has achieved our pending target of 24,400 on spot.
With this, the index is reaching a terminal point of the larger rebound which started from the 21st November low.”

A reversal from this point would likely take more time, as such a shift is typically a gradual process. Significant support on the downside is expected in the range of 23,900 to 24,100. As long as the index holds above this level, a further decline may be delayed. Going forward, support levels will become increasingly crucial.”

Holding supports “We might see a short-term rally to the 24,600-24,700 range. However, I believe this presents a prime opportunity to establish short positions using long-dated put options. If my analysis is accurate, the market is poised to resume its downtrend, potentially with greater severity than the October decline.”

On the time front, as I have been mentioning for the past few days, December 9th is a very critical cycle date, so the intraday range of that date will be important.
Even December 6th is going to be a minor cycle date, so both of these dates have the potential to generate a powerful move in the indices.”

S&P 500: Price and Time Convergence, A Crucial Test

“Finally, on the S&P too, December 6th is going to be a major cycle turn date, so let’s see. The momentum cycles on the S&P peaked out on November 11th, so the recent high is not as bullish as it would have been. On the price front, the zone of 6080 to 6120 would be a strong price and time squaring resistance.”

The recent market movement in NIFTY has been intriguing, with a potential pause on the horizon. While the index has met the criteria for a minimum pullback, a target of 24400 still seems achievable.

Key Points:

“Yesterday’s high isn’t necessarily the peak of this rally. The real test lies in whether the current support levels hold. For Nifty, the crucial support zone ranges from 23,750 to 23,950 on the spot index. As long as this zone remains intact, we can expect further upward momentum in the near term. However, a breach below 23,750 could signal a potential reversal.”

From a time perspective, as previously discussed, November 29th is a key date, followed by a very strong and significant time cycle on December 9th.”

“NIFTY has performed exactly as anticipated, as I’ve outlined in my last two blog posts.”

“As I expounded upon on the fourteenth of November”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/11/14/nifty-50-technical-analysis-and-trading-outlook/

“And as I further expounded upon on the twenty-first of November”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/11/21/nifty-23000-a-critical-support-level-as-sp-500-cools-down/

“I previously indicated that November would be different from October. In October, we experienced a straight decline without a meaningful bounce. However, it wasn’t wise to expect an exact repeat in November. This market badly needed a decent bounce, and we finally got it at the right time.”

The 23,000 support level proved to be a formidable fortress, repelling bearish forces. The Nifty index, seizing the opportunity, soared to 23,700 and ultimately conquered our 24,100 target. Given this intense market action, a breather seems likely in the short term.”

Time Cycles and Future Outlook:

If the NIFTY index can maintain its position above 24,100, it could potentially rise to 24,400 and 24,600 in the short term. However, I believe this is only a temporary upward movement against the current downward trend. I don’t anticipate a major trend reversal based on my analysis. Instead, I expect another significant sell-off to occur after this brief respite. It’s important to remember that market trends don’t change overnight. We should let the market unfold naturally.”

The near-term cycle date is approaching on November 29th, and a more significant time cycle date is due on December 9th. These dates will be crucial in determining the market’s future direction.”

Stay tuned for further updates and analysis as we navigate these important time cycles.”