not much to add In addition to what I shared in last week!

first do checkout what I discussed in last weeks weekly UPDATE!

https://ganninsides.com/2024/03/09/weekly-market-update-2/

PREVIEW

last week I discussed on growing unsustainable divergence between smallcaps and the (NIFTY)!  I also discussed on 7 most critical STOCKS for INDIAN STOCK MARKET!

this week as expected that divergence for NIFTY resolved on downside! and out of TOP magnificent 7 STOCKS accept ICICI;BANK,HDFC;BANK and INFY other 4 STOCKS have registered a notable PATTERN breakdown which would have significantly BEARISH implications going forward!

TECHNICAL UPDATE

NIFTY

TOP is in for NIFTY as we have been discussing since last 2 weeks now! this end under 22,600 would have lot of significance in DAYS-WEEKS and MONTHS ahead!

on NIFTY 21,800 is a key support once that breaks  a sharp decline towards 21,610 and 21,390 could be tested!  broadly below 21,800 INDEX would prepare itself to break JANUARY LOW of 21,137! Once that LOW of 21,137 breaks NIFTY would trigger a all-PATTERN-breakdown which would have severe MEDIUM TERM implications!

S&P;500

S&P is likely to SQUARE out its PRICE with TIME tomorrow on 18th,MARCH!  since INDEX have struggled to take out 5,185 the level which I have been discussing since last 2 weeks  it’s only a matter of TIME before a significant PRICE REVERSAL triggers! we are very close once 5050 breaks it’s all over! expect that to break very very soon!

this would be a textbook PRICE TIME SQUARE REVERSAL which once confirms would end this RALLY from OCTOBER 2023 LOW we really should not look too far  but if this actually plays out according to BOOKS then that OCTOBER 2023 LOW of 4103 is likely to break going forward! would approach that step by step! for now working targets are 4955 and 4840 on downside!

lot off things can go wrong for MARKETS in coming days! stay cautious!

SUMMARY

NIFTY had a good week but the main highlight in the week gone by was the notable weekness in smallcap and midcap INDICES!  this week the divergence between LARGECAPS and SMALLCAPS have reached to an extreme! this is not sustainable during the course of next few days  someone would have to reverse it’s current direction!  today we would take clues from MAGNIFICENT 7 INDIAN STOCKS and the setup in U-S-INDICES  to understand that   who would potentially REVERSE it’s current direction!

so let’s start with MAGNIFICENT 7 INDIAN STOCKS in alphabetical order!

1. (AXIS BANK LIMITED)

AXISBANK is the most important STOCK for NIFTY BANK  if STOCK makes a fresh high above 1151 then NIFTY BANK too would go on and register a fresh record high!   few days back I wrote on this STOCK where I mentioned 1050 as a very important support! STOCK some how managed to hold that support and then recovered!
going forward 11th and 12th,MARCH would be the most important CYCLE DATES for rest of the month.
NOT only for AXIS 11th and 12th would be important CYCLE DATES for NIFTY BANK as well!

2. (ICICI BANK LIMITED)

ICICI BANK has been an only reason why NIFTY BANK have out performed in past few days!  STOCK has only picked up in last 6 to 8 days post some corporate development!  Technically it’s likely to stay BULLISH as long as it stays above 1036 on closing basis! frankly holding that it can test 1146 on upside   historically for ICICI BANK major moves up or down has always occurred post breach of its HARMONIC PATTERN LEVELS  currently 1036 is such a LEVEL on PRICE front!  there is one more very important development which is about to take place in next week which is on TIME front!  On 11th and 12th,MARCH  (ICICI BANK)  would square out its PRICE with TIME from its 2023 LOW!  so this is going to be extremely important!

3. (INFY LIMITED)

INFY has been an ideal STOCK for trend followers! when entire MARKET has been in 2,minds on its velocity of underline direction  INFY never disappoints to present an ideal trading apportunity!  but besides TRADES if we analyse its decline from FEBRUARY high of 1733 then it doesn’t look convincing!  atleast a higher high would be required to complete the structure! if for any reason STOCK gives a daily close below 1550 then all bets are off!  On TIME front 15th and 18th,MARCH are minor CYCLE dates and 26th,MARCH would be an ANNUAL CYCLE DATE here!

4. (Hdfc bank limited)

HDFC BANK is the weekest LARGE CAP STOCK in entire MARKET! let’s be very clear with this   it has given a breakdown on monthly charts!  so whatever it does on day to day basis is unlikely to change that fact!  still MARKETS without much contribution from HDFC BANK have managed to register fresh highs! obviously the intensity of PRICE expansion have reduced since 16th,JANUARY high but still MARKETS have stayed at higher levels!  for HDFC BANK my medium term target objective is at 1270 on cash!  which could take some TIME! for short term 1471 is a key resistance on upside  as long as STOCK sustains below it on closing basis the recent rebounde would be categorized as a normal pullback!  TIME wise 15th,MARCH would be a minor CYCLE DATE here!

5. (RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LIMITED)

RELIANCE has been a leader of this major rally on NIFTY since OCTOBER LOWS!
few days back I shared level of 2900 here as a very critical support! going forward that continues to be an ultimate support! Infact to be very precise 2887 on closing basis is that level which once breaks would indicate a substantial breakdown which would open up primary target of 2650 on cash! TIME wise 15th MARCH would be an ANNUAL CYCLE DATE!as long as mentioned supports are held  further higher highs are still possible!  if people recall my 14th,FEBRUARY post I have shared upside zone of 3040-3100 as a projection for a final TOP! as of now that zone has not been challenged! would be intresting to see how it trades next week!

6. (STATE BANK OF INDIA)

SBI has been another STOCK which has done extremely well since its LOWS registered in JANUARY! it has taken an extra-ordinary rally in SBI to cover up the damage which HDFCBANK have done to NIFTY BANK! Over past few weeks we have seen weightage of SBI and ICICI BANK move higher and HDFC BANK weightage has moved lower just to manage NIFTY BANK!  all these efforts have made to keep INDEX where it is today!  anyways let’s get back to SBI  few days back I thought that SBI have registered it’s high at 777 but in next 2 days MARKETS proved my view incorrect! since then it has kept moving higher! on upside PRICE-TIME-EQUALITY LEVEL is at 810 so that is going to be an important level to watch on upside for next few days! on downside support continues to stay at 739  but on closing basis!  TIME wise 22nd,MARCH is its nearest ANNUAL CYCLE DATE!

7. (TATA MOTORS LIMITED)

TATA motors along with entire AUTO INDEX has been in a clean uptrend since MARCH 2022! in past few weeks many analysts have been trying to predict the TOP for AUTO STOCKS  but these STOCKS continues to trend higher! TATA MOTORS specifically have out performed the MARKET at an unprecedented scale!  this is not sustainable! sooner or later AUTO as a sector would go under a period of correction and during that correction TATA MOTORS would give excellent trading apportunities on short side! but for now trend is higher and it’s likely to stay this way as long as STOCK stays above 987 on closing basis! TIME wise 26th 27th and 28th,MARCH would be key turn dates in near term!

TECHNICAL UPDATE ON NIFTY!

as I discussed on thursdays EOD POST  once NIFTY breaks above 22,565 then only supports would shift higher to 22,300! HARMONIC PATTERN support for NIFTYY which is more significant is at 22,220! last week we discussed level of 22,100 as a major weekly support on NIFTY SPOT  this week that support have moved higher to 22,300 on closing basis! as long as these supports are held MARKETS can continue their move higher!  although the move could be slow but still it could continue higher! I personally have serious doubts how far INDEX can rally beyond the level of 22,600  but that’s my personal view and this platform has been created to put up technical facts not my own personal views! As an ANALYST and a TRADER I would refer the PATTERNS of GANN THEORY here and as of Thursdays close none of that PATTERN has broken! On TIME front 15th,MARCH is going to be an important TIME CYCLE DATE!

NOW let’s discuss on U-S-MARKETS!

In U-S-MARKET  NVIDIA is currently the EPICENTRE off this BUBBLE  but there are well known ANALYSTS in WALL STREET who doesn’t agree with that opinion! On FRIDAY we understood that NVIDIA can go down as well! but people have been thinking this as a healthy pullback!  according to them this time history is not going to repeat itself!   they argue that this TIME is different  “Current arguments as to why this time is different are cloaked in the economics of secular stagnation and standard finance workhorses like the equity risk premium model. Whilst these may lend a veneer of respectability to those dangerous words, taking arguments at face value without considering the evidence seems to me, at least, to be a common link with previous bubbles! “The bulls explain that traditional valuation metrics no longer apply to certain stocks. The longs are confident that everyone else who holds these stocks understands the dynamic and won’t sell either. With holders reluctant to sell, the stocks can only go up – seemingly to infinity and beyond. We have seen this before!  There was no catalyst that we know of that burst the dot-com bubble in March 2000, and we don’t have a particular catalyst in mind here. That said, the top will be the top, and believe it or not  we are getting closer to that TOP!

TECHNICAL UPDATE ON U-S-INDICES!

S&P;500

as we discussed in last weeks post INDICES are extremely close to a TOP  on S&P  I gave a level of 5185 as a PRICE-TIME-SQUARING LEVEL the manner in which INDEX tested 5,185 and reversed down was absolutely comprihensive and this does signal a type of REVERSAL which we have been looking for since several days now!

still if my view is correct INDEX will have to break 5050 during next week! A break of 5050 would trigger a PATTERN breakdown for downside target objective of 4955 and 4840 on cash! On TIME front 18th,MARCH is a PRICE-TIME-SQUARING DATE for S&P IF till 18th,MARCH INDEX manages to stay under 5185 then it should make a hard turn lower towards 4840 in next few days!

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

NASDAQ;COMPOSITE too reversed on FRIDAY with unusually large VOLUMES!  a near 400 point cut from INTRADAY high is certainly significant! Last week I discussed level of 16,500 with my subscribers INDEX went very close to that but failed to print that! going forward 15,850 on closing basis is going to be an important support a daily close below that should drag INDEX towards its downside supports of 15450 and 15150! A break of 15150 would make a case for a test of 14,400 for sure! but from here we would have to approach with one level at a TIME! let the MARKET conform our view!

DOLLAR INDEX

DOLLAR to is at a turning point! it just needs some kind of a trigger else technically it’s still in a good shape! the CPI or the PPI PRINT next week should provide that trigger!  lets see!

let’s end it here for now thanks always for reeding! wish everyone of you a wonderful week ahead! see you guys next week!