The Convergence of Dates and the Subsequent NIFTY Crash

The NIFTY’s Descent: A Tale of Timing and Technicals

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/18/nifty-index-breach-of-support-raises-breakdown-concerns/

“NIFTY experienced a significant breakdown below its critical support of 24,200 on spot on Wednesday. As discussed in the post shared above, the initial target of this major breakdown was projected at 23,800, which the index achieved quite easily.”

The past week witnessed a confluence of three significant time cycle dates – 17th, 19th, and 20th December – culminating in one of the most bearish weeks for Indian markets in the last two years. This bearish sentiment was reflected in the NIFTY’s volatile trading, with a weekly range exceeding 1200 points from Monday to Friday.”

“I have been anticipating this market decline for several days. The current downturn is unfolding as expected, both in terms of timing and severity. As previously mentioned, this leg lower is likely to be more impactful and potentially more dangerous than the declines witnessed in October and the first half of November. However, this major downtrend will likely unfold in phases, meaning that the market won’t decline consistently every day. Therefore, it’s crucial for traders to capitalize on any rallies that emerge to initiate fresh short positions.”

On PRICE FRONT

The NIFTY is likely to encounter resistance in the zone between 23,900 and 24,300 on spot. This range may act as a significant hurdle for any upward momentum in the index.”

On TIME FRONT

“The convergence of two significant time cycle dates next week, December 26th and 27th, is likely to heighten market volatility. Traders should anticipate wider intraday swings and increased price fluctuations during this period.”

“Broadly, I am expecting the NIFTY to drop significantly in the coming weeks and months. However, for the next few days, I would expect the NIFTY to take a breather first. Then, I anticipate a lower low below its November low of 23,263. Finally, it may break its 45-degree angle support of 23,100, which has been calculated from its September high. This would be its second attempt to break this support. And this time, I would expect the NIFTY to finally break through, opening up a genuine possibility for a drop towards its 90-degree angle support, which comes significantly lower. Let’s not discuss that for now.”

Time Cycles and Market Turmoil: S&P 500 and NVIDIA

The S&P 500 experienced a sharp decline yesterday following the FOMC meeting outcome. Prior to this decline, the index had been trading within a relatively narrow range, exhibiting sideways movement.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/03/niftys-double-edged-sword-a-risky-play-for-traders/https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/03/niftys-double-edged-sword-a-risky-play-for-traders/

“We have been diligently monitoring the S&P 500, and I have consistently shared technical updates on its performance. Notably, on December 3rd, I published a post highlighting December 6th as a pivotal turning point based on time cycle analysis. Furthermore, I identified the price range of 6080 to 6120 as a critical resistance zone, aligning with the confluence of price and time-based forecasting models.”

“As anticipated, the index reached its peak on December 6th, reaching a high of 6100. Subsequently, the index exhibited a reversal in trend. Moving forward, the 5840 level assumes significant importance as a critical support level. A decisive break below this level would trigger a more pronounced downside move, with an initial target set at 5620. Further analysis and insights will be provided upon the breach of the 5840 support level. From a time cycle perspective, the next significant date to observe is January 2nd.”

Okay, let’s shift our focus to NVIDIA.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/13/nvidias-128-support-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine-for-the-market/

NVIDIA experienced a significant decline earlier this week, breaching the critical support level of 128. As I previously discussed on Friday, this breach had the potential to trigger broader ramifications within the tech sector. Yesterday’s trading session provided a glimpse into this potential impact.”

“On NVIDIA, I would be looking for levels of 110 and 90 over the course of the next few weeks. Markets globally are about to turn extremely volatile from here on, so it’s best not to get carried away with wide fluctuations. Eventually, markets should be headed lower from here.”

“The coming weeks promise a dynamic market environment for traders.”

“The Apollo Tyres Enigma: Unraveling Price Patterns”

APOLLOTYRES may have clocked a lower high at its December 9th high of 557. On the time front, December 9th was a critical cycle date. So, as long as the stock holds below its December 9th high, we would expect this stock to trend lower towards 495 and 465 on cash in the next few days. On the TIME front, the next critical cycle dates are due on January 1st and 2nd.

Nifty Index: Breach of Support Raises Breakdown Concerns

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/13/niftys-volatile-descent/

“As anticipated last Friday, December 17th emerged as a pivotal turning point for Nifty and other NSE indices. This precipitated a sharp decline yesterday. Today’s breach of the 24,180 support level has unequivocally confirmed a significant breakdown, a scenario I’ve been highlighting for the past two weeks.”

“Today’s intraday low dipped below 24,180, raising concerns about a potential significant shift in market momentum. However, a decisive daily close below 24,200 is necessary to confirm a major breakdown. We await today’s closing price for a clearer picture of the market’s direction.”

“Should the market close below 24,200 today, it would strongly suggest a breakdown with an initial downside target of 23,800 on the spot market. Given the significance of tomorrow and Friday in the time cycle analysis, these dates will require close monitoring.”

NIFTY’s Volatile Descent

NIFTY broke the recent consolidation on the downside today, but in a highly volatile manner.

Yesterday, NIFTY registered its first daily close below the December 9th low of 24,580. This timely breach suggests a potential southward turn. However, a sustained break below the 9th December low is necessary to intensify the downside momentum and trigger a more significant reversal.

On the price front, as discussed on Monday, the major support zone for NIFTY lies between 24,200 and 24,400 on a spot basis. A closing price above this zone is likely to delay the reversal process and could even trigger a rally towards the 25,000-25,200 range in the near future.

The upcoming week is crucial for the overall market outlook. December 17th, 19th, and 20th mark significant turning points for several NSE indices. The next 45-60 days will be a period of intense market activity and potential volatility for all market participants.

NIFTY Consolidates Near-Term, Bearish Bias Persists

NIFTY remains range-bound, displaying a neutral bias. The anticipated reversal signals haven’t materialized, neither in terms of price action nor timeframe. Consequently, no immediate action is necessary.”

The index was confined to a 350-point range established during the last hour of trading on the previous Thursday. This consolidation was likely to persist until a decisive break above or below this range.”

Despite this short-term indecision, I maintain a bearish outlook for NIFTY. Even a higher high above 24,857 won’t alter this underlying bearish sentiment. This range is expected to break within the next three trading sessions.”

Market on the Brink: Awaiting Confirmation of Significant Sell-Off

“NIFTY’s rally has paused. The 24,200-24,400 support is crucial. A potential correction may be on the horizon.”

NIFTY’s Predicted Surge: A Timely Bounce

I’ve been bullish on NIFTY since mid-November. I highlighted the 23,000 level as a critical 45-degree angle support, akin to a sturdy bulwark, which I anticipated would hold on the first attempt. As expected, the index respected this level and rebounded.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/03/niftys-double-edged-sword-a-risky-play-for-traders/

On December 3rd, I predicted that this rebound was nearing its peak and that future price action would be more influenced by support levels than resistance. This cautious approach remains valid for next few days as well.”

On PRICE FRONT.”

Due to the recent rally, NIFTY’s support zone has shifted higher to the 24,200-24,400 range. As long as the index continues to hold above this support, the anticipated reversal may take some time to materialize.”

“It appears the Nifty’s recent rally may have peaked on December 5th. While this is a strong possibility, we need further confirmation before drawing definitive conclusions.”

On TIME FRONT.”

“As I previously discussed, December 9th is a very important time cycle date. The intraday low of the 9th would be considered a key pivot of reference for confirming a potential reversal.”

December 6th also held some significance as a minor time cycle date. A sustained move below the intraday low on December 6th would signal a bearish turn for the overall market.”

“Holding these key time cycle pivots suggests a positive trend outlook for near term.”

I’m still awaiting confirmation of a market reversal, both in terms of price and time. Once this confirmation is received, we could potentially witness one of the most significant market sell-offs in the past three years.”

A Timely Reminder: Risk Management in Volatile Markets

“Given the potential for a significant market correction, now may be an opportune time to reassess your portfolio and consider risk management strategies. Stay informed, stay disciplined, and adapt to changing market conditions. Let’s navigate this journey together.”