A word on the NIFTY IT Index — today’s near 6% intraday fall looks frightening at first glance. But markets have a memory, and history shows that such sharp one-day washouts in this sector have rarely been the final chapter. More often than not, extreme panic days like these have been followed by meaningful recoveries.

📉 Similar moments from the past

While a 6% single-day decline feels dramatic, the IT index has gone through comparable phases before:

September 2025 – Visa policy shock:
Sudden negative headlines triggered an almost 4% intraday drop in NIFTY IT. Sentiment turned completely bearish for a brief period — yet the move proved temporary, and the index gradually recovered in the weeks that followed.

February–March 2025 – Global tech scare:
The index fell more than 12% in a single month, with several sessions seeing 2–3% cuts. At that time too, fear dominated the narrative — but the cycle eventually turned, and prices stabilized and bounced back.

Keeping today’s fall in the right perspective

Big technological shifts like AI do not rewrite decades-old industry cycles overnight.
Markets swing between fear and optimism, and extreme days like today are usually emotional reactions rather than lasting changes.

Experience tells us that after panic drops of this nature, the NIFTY IT index has taken around 120 days on average to recover meaningfully. These falls are typically driven by sentiment and positioning — and once the panic settles, the normal cycle of recovery begins.

Levels that matter now

Strong support sits around 34,500.

If this level holds on an end-of-day basis, a quick and sharp recovery is very possible.

If 34,500 breaks decisively, there could be more short-term pain — but even then, history suggests that a stronger recovery phase usually follows.

How to approach this market

For short-term traders: the environment is currently risky and highly volatile.

For investors with a 3–6 month horizon: moments like these often turn out to be opportunity zones.

Days of extreme fear are frequently closer to exhaustion points than to the start of new downtrends.

Bottom line:
Today’s 6% crash in NIFTY IT feels unsettling — but it isn’t unusual in the larger market cycle. Such panic phases have come and gone before, and they have typically been followed by steady recoveries. Staying calm and patient has historically paid off far better than reacting in fear.

On Nifty – My View Since the Budget Day Selloff

After the Budget speech on Sunday and the sharp selloff that followed, I clearly expressed my view that Nifty has either already made a bottom or is extremely close to forming one. The overall structure suggested that the downside was largely exhausted, and from there the index had the potential to generate a strong and swift move on the upside.

Even yesterday, in my communication with clients, I specifically discussed taking selective long entries in quality stocks. This was not a sudden shift in stance – it has been a consistent view right through this entire correction.

Since the beginning of this decline, which started from the January 5th high, I have maintained one clear position: this fall is a temporary pullback within a larger ongoing uptrend. My belief has always been that Nifty remains well poised to make further higher highs in the months ahead.

Adding to that, the cycle calculations that we have been working on for weeks have given us significantly higher targets on Nifty – numbers that, at this moment, most people would not agree with or even imagine possible. I have already shared those targets and the logic behind them with my clients. Based on that understanding, I have been steadily adding bullish positions in indices and select stocks throughout this entire pullback phase.

Now coming to today’s price action – as far as today’s gap up is concerned, that was not in my expectations at yesterday’s close. Even to my clients, I had clearly marked February 4th as a critical date for a potential turn. The move has started earlier than anticipated, but that matters less for existing positions.

However, for fresh short-term entries, it becomes a tougher call now.

What is important is this – today’s gap is technically very significant. It appears to be a classic breakaway gap. To give you some background, in Nifty’s history we have seen similar breakaway gaps in early December 2023 and again in late July 2022. Those gaps were never filled, even as of today.

The purpose of mentioning this is to highlight how powerful and meaningful such gaps can be going forward.

At the same time, today’s gap is still a work in progress. For it to gain further strength and confirmation, the index still needs to take out today’s high decisively.

Once that happens, Nifty would effectively be in open blue skies with accelerated momentum. And in my view, that would only be the beginning of the larger rally I have been anticipating.

One thing the market has taught us over the years is simple – never mess with momentum.

So let’s see how it unfolds.

What truly matters is this – even at the worst point of sentiment, when news flow, price action, and emotions were completely against a bullish thesis, I did not change my stand. I kept repeating the same message with discipline and conviction.

Markets test patience, not logic.
And this phase looks no different.

https://ganninsides.com/2026/02/02/structure-is-improving-risk-still-lives-nifty-at-a-decision-point/

As we discussed yesterday, Nifty has most likely put in a bottom around 24,571 — or at the very least, we are extremely close to the low we’ve been waiting for over the last few sessions.

The way price has behaved tells an important story. Despite all the noise and pressure, the market has absorbed selling surprisingly well. That said, let’s stay honest and disciplined here.

👉 As long as Nifty does not reclaim and sustain above 25,200, the risk is still very much alive.
Until that level clears, this is not a confirmed reversal — it’s a market trying to find its footing.

On the time-cycle side, February 4 really stands out. These time windows often show up when selling is tired and emotions are stretched — and that’s exactly the environment we’re in right now.

What’s interesting is the global picture as well:

The kind of liquidation we’ve just seen in precious metals usually doesn’t go on forever.

More often than not, it’s followed by stability and rotation, not another straight-line fall.

If that’s the case again, Feb 4 could mark the point where things start calming down.

📌 How to think about this phase
This is not the time to chase headlines or panic with every tick. It is the time to start looking closely at selective stocks, building positions slowly and smartly, while keeping risk tight.

We don’t need to be heroes calling the exact bottom.
We just need to be ready when the market admits it.

Let price do its job.
Let time play out.
The next few sessions — especially around Feb 4 — should be very telling.

The non-confirmation of the bottom below the 25,500 print has actually played out perfectly from a technical standpoint. What we’re witnessing right now are absolutely wild moves—fast, emotional, and telling.

Importantly, these swings strongly suggest that we are extremely close to a meaningful bottom, if it hasn’t already been formed today. The market is transitioning from uncertainty to discovery, and that phase is never comfortable—but it is always revealing.

The next few sessions are shaping up to be genuinely interesting, as price action here will decide whether this was just noise… or the birth of the next directional move.

NIFTY UPDATE

Nifty’s internal structure has improved over the last couple of sessions ahead of the Union Budget announcement on Sunday. However, the market is still missing the key technical confirmations we discussed earlier.

The significance of 25500 remains intact. Despite getting close to this level, the index failed to deliver a decisive print above it. This inability to reclaim 25500 keeps the setup wide open going into the budget event.

At this stage, the market is asking for patience. Rather than committing aggressively on the long side, it makes more sense to wait for clear confirmation post-event.

For now, it’s a market to observe, not predict. Let’s see how it unfolds.

We’ve been talking about this for days now — 27th and 28th January were not random dates. They were important on the time-cycle front, and with today’s session, that window finally closes.

What usually happens after such phases is simple: the market stops drifting and starts choosing.

From here, the short-term trend is unlikely to reveal itself in the middle.
It should become clearer only if Nifty steps out of this tight zone:

Above 25,372 (today’s high) – the market may finally start breathing on the upside.

Below 24,932 (yesterday’s low) – the pressure is likely to stay.

As long as we’re moving between these two levels, expect more noise, more frustration, and more false comfort. That’s sideways work.

About the recent low — we still can’t call 24,919 a real bottom. Not yet.
Markets don’t form bottoms just by touching a number. They prove them. And until Nifty starts holding above 25,500, that proof is missing.

Yes, globally things look supportive.
The Dollar is cooling off. The S&P 500 is making new highs. All of that should help.
But if there’s one thing the market keeps teaching — price doesn’t move on logic, it moves on its own readiness. And right now, our charts are still asking for confirmation.

To make things even more interesting, the Budget is due this Sunday. Big events, tight ranges, important time windows — that’s usually where volatility is born.

So for now, this is not a prediction phase.
This is a listening phase.

Let the market show its hand.
Till then — stay light, stay flexible, respect the levels, and don’t force opinions.