“It’s important not to get swayed by headline noise; the focus must remain on the underlying technical setup, which is completely reliant on the trajectory of global markets. Yesterday, the S&P 500 did experience a minor sell-off post-Fed policy, but its futures have since bounced higher. This reinforces the idea that Nifty cannot trend lower on its own; it requires a downward push from global markets.

On Nifty, the 25020 spot level is a critical resistance to clear for a higher trend and a signal of a trend reversal. Until that level is taken out, the market is likely to remain sideways with limited downside. A significant breakdown is only confirmed on a closing basis below 24400 on spot.

Looking at time cycles, tomorrow is a key date, followed by August 5th. Interestingly, Fridays have produced the weekly lows for Nifty over the past three weeks, so a failure to do so tomorrow would serve as a primary indication of a potential move higher. The next few sessions are extremely critical.

“Venus and Saturn form a square tomorrow, so it should be interesting.

Astrologically, Venus relates to value, harmony, and money, while Saturn is associated with structure, restriction, and discipline. When they form a square (a 90-degree angle), their energies clash. This often leads to a “reality check” where things related to Venus—like relationships, finances, and pleasure—are confronted with the discipline and limitations of Saturn.

https://ganninsides.com/2025/07/18/niftys-critical-juncture-price-time-and-the-bearish-outlook/

“Nifty has consistently registered weekly lows on Fridays over the past three weeks, a clear bearish signal. Despite this, the index struggles to accelerate its descent, primarily due to the prevailing strength in global markets. The remarkable resilience of the S&P 500, along with the undeniable uptrends across European and other Asian indices, highlights Nifty’s significant underperformance globally.

This divergence could be largely attributed to Nifty’s weekly cycles, which are scheduled to conclude next Monday, July 28th. Once this time pressure dissipates, Nifty may realign with its international counterparts. Consequently, the upcoming week is absolutely critical for all global markets, especially the U.S. markets.

Should the U.S. market initiate its long-anticipated pullback next week, Nifty would likely swiftly retest its swing lows of 24462 to 24473 on spot. This zone will be the decisive factor for Nifty’s medium-term trajectory. For now, we maintain a slight bearish bias, anticipating a potential retest of these swing lows. Yesterday’s high will serve as a strong resistance level on the upside.

While directional trading currently holds little meaning, the NIFTY’s spot close above 25000 remains crucial, keeping major downside at bay. The trend remains sideways.

A strong breakout for NIFTY would materialize only with a sustained spot close above 25350. Conversely, no significant downside is anticipated as long as 24850 holds.

Similarly, US markets remain stable as long as the S&P 500 does not decisively close below 6250. A break of this level would signal a potential reversal.

For directional traders, patience is key. Wait for a clear break of these critical levels on either side before initiating new positions.