“The setups in the S&P 500 and NIFTY Bank are overshadowing NIFTY’s standalone bearish setup. Frankly, nothing has really changed since my previous update, which I shared last Thursday. Global markets are still flat, and NIFTY remains stuck within its well-defined range of 24500 to 25100. Yesterday, we tested the lower band of this range but failed to close below it. Technically, therefore, until we get a decisive close below 24500, this range consolidation should continue.

Additionally, NIFTY Bank also needs to roll over; a daily close below 55350 would likely trigger a move towards its May low. There are plenty of divergences on NIFTY Bank at today’s morning high. So, let’s see how things unfold from here.

On the time front, tomorrow marks an anniversary date from our June 2024 low, and on Thursday, we have a natural cycle date, just like we had on May 26th. Furthermore, Friday brings the RBI policy announcement. Therefore, the next three days are extremely important from both a time and event perspective. Personally, I continue to believe that the index should move lower first, towards 24000, before we reconsider our outlook.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/05/15/echoes-of-the-past-niftys-rapid-ascent-and-the-anticipation-of-a-technical-retracement/

“To wrap up for today, I want to provide a quick update on our strategic positioning for our HNI clients. As I shared on May 15th, we had initiated short positions in both In-The-Money (ITM) and At-The-Money (ATM) calls, anticipating a market pullback. I’m pleased to report that this strategy played out as expected. Today, we successfully covered those trades, realizing good profits for our clients. Following this profitable exit, we’ve now re-established fresh short call positions at the 24000 and 25000 strike levels for the September expiry.”

We will continue to keep you informed as these key developments unfold.

Best regards,

UPDATE on JUNE 6th

“Following on my update on June 3rd, NIFTY, as of now, continues to be within its established range of 24500 on the downside and 25100 on the upside. As discussed earlier, the index failed to close below 24500; hence, it recovered again. We also discussed NIFTYBANK, where we identified a level of 55350 on a closing basis to confirm the breakdown. That level held again, and the banking index, post today’s policy, has given another strong move on the upside. Similarly, the S&P 500 has seen limited significant movement since May 19th. Interestingly, it too attempted to clear its May high but has largely failed to capitalize on further upside. I believe NIFTY faces a similar risk: a marginal breach above its 25116 high could be followed by a retracement. Consequently, there appears to be limited swing trading opportunity here. From a technical perspective, with yesterday being a cycle date, a sustained daily close above NIFTY’s yesterday’s high of 24899 would ideally support a bullish bias. Once the market digests today’s RBI policy, attention may shift to global markets, specifically the S&P 500, which has a strong reversal time window from today until June 9th. We await further developments.

NIFTY’s Critical Juncture: What Today’s Low Means for the Market

“NIFTY, as discussed earlier this week, holds significant importance from a time perspective. In fact, today’s intraday low, regardless of price, will be critically important on a closing basis. A sustained close below today’s intraday low would serve as a definitive signal for an impending pullback across all indices. Conversely, if the index maintains today’s intraday low on a closing basis, the current trend is likely to persist. Following today’s cycle date, the significance of May 15th’s intraday low of 24494 has been entirely nullified. Prudence dictates waiting for clear confirmation here. On the upside, NIFTY’s key resistance level would be 25300 on the spot.”

UPDATE on MAY 28th.

“NIFTY is consistently closing below its Monday’s low of 24900. As we discussed Monday afternoon, this isn’t a positive sign and could well trigger a pullback, potentially targeting 24462. If that level gives way, then 24255 is firmly on the cards. Tomorrow, May 29th, is also a crucial cycle date for us. Frankly, the last fifteen days have been incredibly dull for index traders. Let’s hope for some renewed energy and action from tomorrow onwards.”

UPDATE on MAY 29th.

NIFTY’s bearish standalone setup is currently being cushioned by optimism in global markets, introducing a layer of complexity to its immediate trajectory. This dynamic warrants close observation.

Our focus is on the S&P 500, where we expect a key turn either today or tomorrow. If this plays out, NIFTY should follow its anticipated downtrend. But if the S&P 500 doesn’t cooperate, NIFTY might briefly punch above its May 15th high of 25116 before a swift and severe drop towards 24200-23800 by mid-June.

The next two sessions for the U.S. markets are therefore critically important in determining NIFTY’s short-term direction. We await these developments with keen interest.