It’s  an  interesting  time  in  the  market,  but  we  maintain  that  the  current  decline  is  not  driven  by  the  recent  tariff  news.    We  typically  don’t  see  the  market  fall  twice  on  the  same  catalyst,  and  the  50%  tariff  news  has  been  known  since  early  August.   This information should already be fully digested.  The  real  reason  for  the  downturn  is  the  persistent  weakness  in  banking  stocks.

Regarding  the  tariff  issue,  we  believe  these  tariffs  will  be  rolled  back  by  President  Trump  sometime  in  September.   It is highly unlikely that these 50% rates will be sustained for a significantly long period of time.

Near-Term Consolidation, Long-Term Bullish View Intact

As I updated on Tuesday, the near-term setup has shifted from extremely bullish to a more cautious stance. We now anticipate a period of consolidation, but a reversal is due sooner rather than later.  In  a  normal  scenario,  we  do  not  expect  NIFTY  to  break  below  its  August  8th  low  of  24337  on  a  spot  basis.    Our  long-term  view  remains  a  fresh  record  high  above  26277  until  October  16th,  which  leaves  plenty  of  time  for  this  target  to  be  achieved.

If, for any reason, the August 8th low of 24337 is broken, we would expect a quick downside extension. However, even this dip would present a strong buying opportunity. When analyzing markets, the relationship between price and time is paramount. This is a core tenet of our analysis.

For  instance,  the  rally  from  24337  to  25153  took  exactly  12  calendar  days  (including  one  trading  holiday).   This duration is a key factor.

If  the  low  of  24337  breaks  before  September  3rd  (the  12th  calendar  day  from  the  August  21st  high),  it  would  be  a  bearish  signal.

However, if the low breaks after September 3rd, it would be a bullish confirmation, and in that scenario, we would aggressively buy all dips for a December expiry.

Watch for a Major Time Cycle

Finally,  a  critical  data  point:  On  August  29th,  NIFTY  is  scheduled  to  complete  a  144-day  cycle  from  its  April  7th  low.   This is a significant development on the time-cycle front that we will be watching closely.

“To  wrap  up,  the  crucial  test  for  this  market  will  be  how  it  reacts  around  the  August  8th  low  and  the  coming  time  cycle  dates.    We  maintain  our  long-term  targets,  and  look  for  a  strong  buying  opportunity  on  any  further  dips.”

The Gann-Based Geometrical Setup

Building on yesterday’s brief overview, this analysis provides a detailed breakdown of the geometrical setup for the NIFTY.  The  methodology  is  applied  to  the  recent  swing  from  the  June  30th  high  of  25,669  to  the  August  8th  low  of  24,339.    The  time  duration  of  this  swing  is  39  calendar  days,  while  the  price  range  covers  1,330  points.

Calculating the 45-Degree Angle

The  core  of  this  calculation  involves  deriving  a  45-degree  angle  for  both  price  and  time.    To  determine  the  price  component,  the  total  range  of  1,330  points  is  divided  by  8,  yielding  a  value  of  166.25.    This  means  that  multiples  of  166.25  from  the  high  or  low  represent  the  45-degree  price  angle.    For  the  time  component,  the  39-day  duration  is  divided  by  8,  resulting  in  a  value  of  approximately  5  days.    In  simple  terms,  this  signifies  that  the  1×1  angle  rises  by  roughly  166  points  for  every  5  calendar  days,  starting  from  the  August  8th  low.

Practical Application & Forecast

The  application  of  this  angle  to  recent  market  action  provides  a  clear  trajectory.    The  angle  was  at  24,505  on  August  13th,  reaching  24,671  by  August  18th.    It  is  projected  to  hit  24,837  on  August  22nd,  25,004  on  August  28th,  and  25,170  on  September  2nd,  with  a  forecast  for  the  NIFTY  to  cross  its  June  30th  high  around  September  16th.   This illustrates a powerful method for projecting future price movements based on past cycles.

Complexity and Conclusion

It is important to acknowledge that this is a basic approach to Gann theory.  The  analysis  can  become  extremely  complex  when  factoring  in  multiple  active  cycles  and  the  interrelationship  of  various  market  swings.    As  a  result,  traders  should  note  that  the  index  must  maintain  its  position  above  these  key  spot  values  on  the  given  dates  to  sustain  a  bullish  structure.   For now, this serves as a foundation for understanding Gann angles, with more advanced applications to be explored in the futur.”

With today’s gap higher, the NIFTY has cleared all its resistances on the price front.  On  the  time  front,  with  a  daily  close  above  24,600  on  August  13th  (which  was  the  August  11th  intraday  high),  the  time  cycles  gave  a  clean  breakout.   It was only a matter of time before the price would have also joined, and the index chose a perfect day to generate that breakout.

As  discussed  earlier,  August  14th  and  August  18th  were  significant  time  cycle  dates.    The  most  specific  cycle  date  is  likely  going  to  be  August  18th,  because  that’s  going  to  complete  a  full  circle  on  the  time  cycle  front  from  its  September  27,  2024,  top.   So now, with things aligning well on both the price and time fronts, it’s a good time for us to turn bullish, or rather, I would say, extremely bullish for the next few weeks.

Of course, short-term things would keep happening, and we would obviously keep discussing that regularly. But directionally, we would be looking for a fresh all-time high for the NIFTY, above its September 27, 2024, peak of 26,277 on spot, as late as October 16, 2025. Maybe it could come much before that, but that’s the maximum time it could take. There is a simple math applied behind this date; try to figure it out first. If you still find it tough, then do let me know, and I will explain it.

Today’s  rally  is  also  significant  on  the  geometrical  price  and  time  equation,  which  at  a  1×5  angle  from  its  April  7th  low  of  21,743  comes  at  24,815  on  spot.   The calculation is a bit complex, but what we need to understand is that as long as this price level is holding, the trend for the index is likely to stay extremely bullish. In the morning, I already shared the near-term upside targets in a broadcast list, so I won’t mix it up here. Let’s wrap things up for now.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/11/the-final-verdict-niftys-medium-term-fate-hangs-in-the-balance/

The current outlook for NIFTY remains stable as long as Monday’s intraday low is successfully held. This suggests that a bearish trend is unlikely to develop in the near term and a rally is the most probable next move.
A clear bullish signal will be triggered by a breakout above yesterday’s high of 24,703. This is a critical resistance zone, spanning from 24,703 to 24,761. A confirmed move above this range is expected to initiate a sharp upward rally.
In preparation for this potential shift, we have significantly reduced our short positions. This strategic adjustment was made because the majority of our targeted stocks have already met or exceeded their price objectives. As a result, we will be maintaining a very low-risk profile on our stock positions moving forward.
From a time-cycle perspective, the next two sessions are crucial for a potential trend reversal. NIFTY is set to complete a 90-degree time rotation from its April 7th low on August 14th, and a 360-degree rotation from its September 27th, 2024 low on August 18th. We advise all traders to remain vigilant and manage risk effectively in anticipation of a sharp market swing.

After a period of intense pressure driven by time cycles, today, August 11th, marks a pivotal moment for Nifty. The cyclical headwinds that have influenced the recent bearish trend are now expected to subside, opening the market to potential moves on both sides.

The immediate direction of the index hinges on today’s intraday range. A decisive close below the day’s low would serve as a powerful confirmation of the bearish trend, potentially accelerating the downside. Conversely, should Nifty manage a close above its intraday high, it could trigger a much-needed short-term pullback.

For the medium-term structure, the battle is far from over. The crucial test remains a sustained daily close below the 24400 spot support. A failure to hold this level would not only validate the recent damage to the index but also set the stage for a probable downside move to fill the open gap between 24166 and 24378.

While the market structure is in a vulnerable initial phase, its stability is precariously dependent on the resilience of these key supports. As the intense time window closes, the market is poised for a significant move, making the session’s outcome and the days ahead a matter of intense focus for all traders.”