NIFTY could extend this pullback beyond 22,150 on spot in a normal sinario! as I discussed yesterday as a short-term trader look to secure profits on shorts and prefer reentering on higher levels! So as expected MARKET have rallied from lows and once we go closer to 22,100 we would look to add positions for downside target objectives of 21,625 and 21,400 ideally in next few weeks!

NIFTY have allready fallen almost 800 points from the TOP without any negative developments in global markets! so from here to achieve targets below 21,400 it would require downside participations from global INDIces!

sooner or later we certainly would get that participation but as TRADERS we have to draw a line during which phase we want to get more active and during which phase we want to get less active!   we now are in a phase where less activity is required!

FED MEETING triggered the rally on U-S-INDICES

something was about to happen post EVENT  and we saw MARKETS move higher! fall in IMPLIED VOLATILITY in OPTIONS MARKET along with VIX expiration was a primary reason behind yesterdays upside! very much tactical in nature which is not unusual! Infact this IMPLIED VOLATILITY factor have always produced upside on all critical EVENT days “whether its (CPI) (NFP) or (FOMC).

that’s why we usually witness rally on those EVENT days!  it have less to do with that EVENT itself! that sounds strange but since the inception of 0 D.T. OPTIONS this volatility crush post EVENTS have occurred regularly!

technically with a higher high above 5189 S&P could follow the exact PATTERN which NIFTY played out from 23rd,FEBRUARY to 11th,MARCH!  eventually things would resolve on downside but as long as PATTERN supports are holding as TRADERS we can’t do much! but as ANALYST since PRICE and TIME have squared we can convince ourself that a REVERSAL is round the corner!  whether that takes 2,days 4,days or 6,days that we would see going forward!

its ANNIVERSARY DATE for NIFTY  from 2023 LOW!

NIFTY yesterday broke the all important support of 21,800 on intraday basis but failed to close below that! On technical basis a close is required for added conformation!  as I have been very clear that this support will break and MARKETS are going towards JANUARY lows on LARGE CAP INDICES  that view is very much intact!  obviously that would take some TIME so if you cannot wait in cash part of your profits and reenter again on higher levels!

more then direction your TIME/FRAME is going to matter as a TRADER!

If you are someone who have capitalized on this recent 700 points decline from high of 22526 then a bounce of 200 to 300 pts shouldn’t bother you but if you have been short since 22100 then look to secure your profits! it’s certain that INDICES in next few weeks are headed much lower  but keeping that fact in mind we would have to deal with short term volatility and have to strategize accordingly!

I have been selling calls  and that trade have worked considerably well!  Very soon I would share that trade which I gave to subscribers on 1st of MARCH  when MARKETS went up crazily!

FOMC MEAT finally can push U-S-INDICES out of their consolidation!

S&P is consolidating in 80 point band since last 10 days  this cannot last forever!  todays EVENT should finally trigger a large move!  5050 on downside is absolutely critical as long as that’s holding TOP cannot be confirmed!  dispite a potential PRICE and TIME square TOP cannot be confirmed until 5050 breaks on downside!

expecting that to break soon! with or without a new high! critical seasonal date today as well! EQUINOX always matters for WALL STREET!