NIFTY today achieved our near term pattern target of 22575 on spot,


so the breakdown which happened yesterday have reached its primary destination today.
Going forward market would wait for the EVENT to pass through before making next move.
but for now technical setup is of sell on rise, for targets of 22355 and 22125,


need to be on edge.
Voletility has to be managed until pole results are out!

NIFTY yesterday posted a daily close below 22908 so since yesterdays close the strength of the uptrend reduced dramatically and with todays open below 22786 which i shared earlier as a final stop for all longs, things have turned slightly BEARISH.
it yet again proved out to be a failed breakout.
it once again proved out to be a failed breakout.
For short term with todays break lower  our near,term pattern objectives would be 22575 and 22355 on spot.
Only 3 days to go for election results so expect more voletility ahead.

As discussed on last Wednesday a move above 22350 would eliminate all bearish options for short term.
and on last Thursday in a dramatic last hour surge we saw NIFTY moving above 22350.

Since then  we have seen INDEX moving up steadily.
And most likely its again marching towards all time high territory of 22800 on spot.

on downside support stands at 22300 on spot holding 22300 NIFTY is likely to trend higher.
If in case 22300 breaks then we could again see INDEX testing levels of 22100 and 21900  in few days.

On TIME front  this week we have one natural cycle date for INDIAN and U-S-INDICES which would be on 24th,MAY.
Specially for U..S MARKETS 27th,may is going to be vary critical TIME CYCLE DATE.

NIFTY UPDATE

As we discussed in sundays post,  13th was a minor but important cycle date for NIFTY  a failure to close below 13th,low would restrict INDEX from making further lower lows on immidiate basis.

this recovery on NIFTY from mondays low have reached a critical resistance today which stands at 22350 on spot.

If on any given day INDEX moves above 22350 all short term bearish options would dissappear for near term as long as spot maintains under 22350 those options would continue.

Since past few days i have shared 21700 as a medium term trend reversal level for NIFTY,
for some reasons markets are holding that.
And until and unless 21700 is protected there wont be any change on overall market texture.
the up-down trend of NIFTY will carry on as far as 21700 is held.
As analyst I can give a statement that 21700 will break, but as a trader until and unless market conferms that view i cannot put heavy trades on that view.

As of now we are still not in a type of market where we can carry over our trades.
So having a fixed frame of mind wont help for the time being.

U-S-INDICES too are at an intresting juncture

S&P;500 could print a fresh record high, post CPI DATA due today EVENING

As discussed in sundays post  for S&P making a new high  is not a major thing sustaining above 5300-5350 zone is something which holds greater significance.
As long as level of 5350 doesnt breaks risk of a sizable correction possibly towards 4800 in next 2,months would continue to strongly persist!

when it comes to DXY and U-S-10,Y they both have been in longer term uptrend since past several weeks.
dispite short term pullbacks broader uptrend hasn’t been compromised yet.
On upside on DXY we are working with target of 108 and on U-S-10,Y our working target of 5.30 is still intact till late july!

NIFTY yesterday achieved our primary pattern target of 22100 on spot.
Not only that  with yesterdays low of 21931 INDEX went very close towards our 2nd,target of 21865.
Post yesterdays sharp selloff INDEX is making a recovery attempt today,
Lets see how long this lasts.
Since today is a weekly close  watch out for 22044 very closely.
A close today below 22044 would break sq9,channel on weekly basis, in addition to that   it too would significantly increase odds for a medium term breakdown.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/05/03/nifty-is-getting-uncomfortable-at-highs/

As posted on last FRIDAY when INDEX printed a fresh record high and registered a sharp INTRADAY REVERSAL, I discussed on 3 key points.
Lets again revisit them.

1, listen the MARKET message.

3 reversal bars in last 25 days from its major gann angle resistance of 22776 is giving us a very important signal on the next potential direction on INDEX which could be on downside.

Lets see, what actually triggers that,
ongoing elections could be one of those excuse, or something external on geopolitical front, whatever it would be, reasons wont matter.
We only require a trigger which drags INDICES below their ultimate supports!

2 6th,MAY would hold a greater significance for all MARKETS

As noted couple of times during last week  date of 6th,MAY was very significant specially the intraday lows of 6th would be considered as a key pivot for next several days!

On NIFTY we have broken mondays low convincingly  hens no surprise that it is drifting lower in a staggered manner.
but on S&P mondays low is still intact so as long as that is holding we would have to rule out an immediate collapse.

if we are looking for major supports to break on NIFTY  then global markets too have to turn lower.
Just to get primary indications for a reversal we would be closely watching for mondays intraday lows!

3, 22300 happens to be a pattern support on PRICE front

As we discussed on last Friday 22300 was a key pattern support a break of that level has opened up downside target objectives of 22100 and 21865 on spot.
On expected lines index is moving down towards 22100.
This move lower would be slow compared to the decline which we saw from last Fridays high.
Resistance on upsides are placed at 22600.

This break still is not sufficient to trigger a medium term reversal on NIFTY.

Thats still placed below 21700.
Now having that support from TIME and PRICE once again  we would expect 21700 to break till 15th or 16th,MAY.
let’s see, with VIX at multi year highs,  this TIME we could see supports going through finally.

just to finish it off, look for that open chart gap on NIFTY  which persists at 22178.
this occured on 22nd,APRIL.

once that gap fills momentum would pickup further on downside!

NIFTY has been getting very strong rejection at its major gann angle resistance of 22776.
We have been discussing this level since past 2 weeks.
We now have 3 reversal bars in last 25 days from its gann angle resistance.
Interestingly last two rejections have took Pl during the same day and infact during the same hour.

this technicaly is not a good sign.
and no matter what everyone says  the market message is absolutely clear  that its not comfortable above 22776.
3 touch points are generally enough but in rare and special cases it could get 4.
Lets see  breaking supports is going to be very critical!

for short term as i discussed earlier 6th,may is a very important cycle date.
So intraday lows of all INDICES is going to be a key price and time pivot for next few days.
So let’s see what low did INDICES prints on MONDAY!

Other than that  22300 is a vibration pattern support.
if that goes we would get a pattern breakdown,  which would opened up downside target objectives of 22100 and 21865 on spot!

https://ganninsides.com/2024/04/30/positive-trend-continues-for-nifty/

lets revisit what we were expecting on last Friday!

ups and downs continues for LIFE and NIFTY

NIFTY is nearing its  major gann angle resistance of 22776.
We did discussed this level on last Friday when INDEX was trading at 22450.
Once spot sustains above 22776 it should test other gann angles which stands at 22835 and 22955.

On downside support continues to stand at 22348 but if INDEX prints 22810 this support would shift higher to 22550.

TIME wise for near term 6th,MAY is going to be a critical natural cycle date which would have its impact on all markets accross all continents.

So we would be looking for the intraday range of 6th,may on all INDICES.

SHORT TERM UPDATE on NIFTY

NIFTY continued with that same similar pattern which have been repeating since last 3 months.
INDEX moved exactly as it generaly moves on expiry day.

A pop higher during the expiry week is something I did discussed in my wednesdays post as well.
Just to put things in prospective  series on series NIFTY was up 243 points and out of those 243 points 172 points came on final day of the series.
So this is how things have been for NIFTY and it has been going this way since late january!

Technicaly as i discussed earlier  holding intraday lows of 23rd and 24th,APRIL on closing basis NIFTY has potential to test level of 22600 on upside,  and on expected lines it did tested level of 22600 yesterday. after testing that level we have again seen INDEX taking a pause.
it looks like we would get a negative daily close today on NIFTY   so it would be a first negative daily close for NIFTY after 18th,april.
this could break the momentum for market which have been going higher since 19th,april.

for near term trend for NIFTY is likely to stay positive as long as zone of 22300-22350 is held on closing basis.
both price and time setups would indicate further higher highs holding that support zone.
On upside how high it could go is a slightly tricky question? because levels of 22776-22835-22955 are very strong gann angle resistance on monthly charts of NIFTY! so lets see how it goes in next few days!

since this update is only for short term so i wont re emphasise on what has been going on for medium term.
I already have shared my view multiple times without any filters
So would leave it here for now!

https://ganninsides.com/2024/04/24/markets-midweek-update/