NIFTY makes a new high but as usual “Despite NIFTY reaching a new high, significant inter-market divergence persists. While NIFTY IT has led the recent rally, NIFTY BANK, RELIANCE, and NIFTY AUTO have failed to confirm the uptrend. If these indices and RELIANCE don’t catch up, NIFTY could quickly reverse and break below its supports. Therefore, caution is advised, and excessive optimism should be avoided.” “The market has been relatively stagnant in recent sessions, but activity is expected to increase. Tomorrow morning, the market will likely react strongly to NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report. Later in the day, the Reliance Industries AGM will also have a significant impact on market sentiment. These events are expected to influence market performance in the coming days.” On downside The 24,700 level remains a strong pattern support. As long as the index holds above this level, it should remain relatively stable. However, today is also a minor cycle day, as I discussed in my Sunday post. Therefore, today’s intraday low will serve as a crucial support level on a closing basis. If the index closes below today’s intraday low, it could signal an early breakdown of the pattern support.”

The Nifty index has failed to reach a new high by its August 27th deadline, signaling a potential shift in its underlying trend. This breakdown of the bullish time channel, which has been in place since January, suggests a change in the market’s momentum. “Currently, the character change is confined to time due to the bullish price setup, which still supports further upward movement. In near term.
On the downside, support lies at 24,700. Holding above this level, NIFTY could potentially rise to 25,250 on spot.
The next 24 hours are crucial for global markets, as NIFTY’s recent development could influence broader market sentiment.

NIFTY is getting really intresting.
  irrespective of PRICE. the more important thing is the TIME CHANNEL in which NIFTY has been trading since JANUARY of 2024.
 
  within this CHANNEL  NIFTY has been making fresh highs after every 22-25 days.
  the last high for NIFTY was Registered on 1st,august  so adding 25 days from there takes us to 26th, august so if NIFTY manages to print a fresh ATH  till 26th or the27th of august  then everything would continue to stay fine.

but if this time pattern breaks then that won’t be a healthy sign for the overall uptrend.
Lets see. Hold on till SEPTEMBER if you wish to make major trades on INDICES. because the ultimate action actually lies in SEPTEMBER and OCTOBER for a major trending move.
For short term yesterdays low of 24522 would be a critical support.

NIFTY today if gives a weekly close below 24330 then that would trigger a (SQUARE-OF-9)  breakdown on its weekly CHARTS.
since NOVEMBER,2023 NIFTY-SPOT have maintained the BULLISH shape of its SQ9 pattern hens markets have successfully managed to continue with its
BULLISH trend,
since OCTOBER,2023 low NIFTY has been moving in a upward rising channel which currently have its lower edge below 24010 on its weekly charts.

this channel consists major PATTERNS like SQ9 and HEXAGON.
So even if NIFTY breaks the SQ9 PATTERN today or on next FRIDAY  that still wont be sufficient to reverse the structural BULL MARKET.
thats going to break only below a weekly close under 24010 on spot.

so as long as 24010 is holding the legitimate argument of a medium term uptrend will continue to persist.

Now for short term as i discussed earlier holding Mondays low markets globally are going to stay fine.

and thats what actually happenned.

for next week 13th,aug is going to be a key cycle date.

but the most significant date on time front would be on 19th,August.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/08/04/increased-volatility-in-global-markets-can-drag-nifty-below-its-critical-supports/

it was a great day  if you had a BEARISH view on markets.
As posted yesterday    I was expecting NIFTY to test 24200 and break its critical support of 24000 in immidiate future but markets would do it today itself that wasn’t expected but since things are unfolding in anticipated framework  there is nothing to complain.

As I discussed very clearly in above post that the intraday low of 5th,August is  going to be absolutely critical  so if this selloff has to intensify further then INDICES must sustain below todays intraday low.

If that doesn’t happen then we should get a kind of a pullback or consolidation  for near term  before next round of selloff takes place.

So lets not get carried away with todays move and focus on basics.

BUDGET is behind us now •

and the biggest take away for markets from yesterdays budget was the substantial increase in short and long term capital gains taxes.

where the long term capital gains tax has been increased by 25% from what it was,
and,
the short term capital gains tax has been increased by whopping 33% from what it was.
STT too have been increased significantly.

So if you are a professional trader or an investor in INDIAN MARKETS then these revised taxes are going to hit you very badly.

but if you are someone who does not approach this market professionaly then you are not going to understand that what it actually means.

Anyways lets move on and discuss NIFTY.

As discussed earlier level of 24000 on NIFTY spot is going to be a significant support which if breaks is going to put the entire market under deep pressure.
but as long as thats holding its all fine.

On downside 24250 is a near term pattern support once that breaks index should also break yesterdays low of 24074 as well looking at NIFTY BANK it should only be a matter of time before 24000 breaks on NIFTY.

24000 is such a strong support that, index would require a overnight gapdown to break that.
Lets see.

NIFTY have broken below its pattern support of 24480 today so the overall uptrend on daily charts have finally vroken.
One very important point to note here is,
this pattern break has happened just one day before a critical event of budget which is going to be presented tomorrow.
So is there any kind of message which market is trying to convey us?
we should find that out in next 48,hours.

for now its clear that  near term long trades are not on offer after todays pattern break.
So from here whether markets enters a consolidation phase or a correction phase that we would have to closely monitor,
As long as 24000 stays intact on spot for now there are chances are that markets would remain in a consolidation phase.
but if something comes out of BUDGET and markets break below 24000 then dynamics would change dramatically.

for Indian markets the risk is also growing from U-S-INDICES because after NASDAQ    S&P too has broken below its pattern support which is going to add more pressure in global indices so there is clear overnight risk for NIFTY if S&P registers a sharp INTRADAY decline on any given day.

If you are someone who has been anticipating a deeper correction in NIFTY then thats going to unfold only below 24,000.
because so far its only the daily setup which has damaged.
the weekly setup is still strong and that will take time to turn.

So thats it for now lets see how things goes post BUDGET.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/07/10/a-sense-of-change-is-in-air-for-nifty-lets-look-for-that-from-here-on/

NIFTY have successfully navigated the uncertain tine window which was going on since 10-15,july.
As we discussed in above post,
technicaly we were looking for a trend reversal  but the only condition for that was a break of pattern support which was at 23980 until yesterday and from today that support have shifted higher towards 24220 on spot.
So as long as this pattern is intact we should keep getting higher highs on NIFTY and dispite some mixed signals from TIME until these PRICE supports are held INDEX is not going to break on lower side,
no chance.

all other equations including some very important TIME factors wont come into play as long as vibration structure of PRICE stays ferm for NIFTY.
As an analyst our job would begin only when markets starts to turn lower below its supports.
As a trader it is an easy market which frankly needs no analysis.

things doesn’t goes on like this we all would agree on that.
there is a saturation point for everything in this world and equity markets around the world are reaching that point may be not today or tomorrow but somewhere during next 15 odd days we should be reaching there.

if markets fails to get periodic pullbacks then that would be quiet dangerous for all market participants   because that can trigger unexpected 1 or 2 day sharp selloffs simillar to what we saw on 4th,june.
if positioning in futures markets continues to stay accesively bullish then such selloffs would continue to occur frequently and post every selloff we would see retail traders helpless and under deep sorrows just like we saw exactly 7 weeks back.
markets surely recovered from that incident but many traders have not!

for INDIAN MARKETS budget on next Tuesday is certainly a market moving event so better be careful with that.
this market only requires a small trigger to test and break its supports.

Now when it comes to U-S-INDICES things are not that great.
All INDICES are trading on their own world
People are calling it a rotation shift from tech to smallcaps but volumes does not support that argument.
We have seen markets going down with heavy volumes and when they went higher volumes were significantly lower.

still these things doesn’t matter as long as critical supports are held.

18000 for NASDAQ COMPOSITE and 5510 for s&p;500; are major vibration pattern supports.
everything would stay fine as long as these supports are held.

thats it for today.