NIFTY today if gives a weekly close below 24330 then that would trigger a (SQUARE-OF-9) breakdown on its weekly CHARTS.
since NOVEMBER,2023 NIFTY-SPOT have maintained the BULLISH shape of its SQ9 pattern hens markets have successfully managed to continue with its
BULLISH trend,
since OCTOBER,2023 low NIFTY has been moving in a upward rising channel which currently have its lower edge below 24010 on its weekly charts.
this channel consists major PATTERNS like SQ9 and HEXAGON.
So even if NIFTY breaks the SQ9 PATTERN today or on next FRIDAY that still wont be sufficient to reverse the structural BULL MARKET.
thats going to break only below a weekly close under 24010 on spot.
so as long as 24010 is holding the legitimate argument of a medium term uptrend will continue to persist.
Now for short term as i discussed earlier holding Mondays low markets globally are going to stay fine.
and thats what actually happenned.
for next week 13th,aug is going to be a key cycle date.
but the most significant date on time front would be on 19th,August.
Category: Gann INSIDES INDICES UPDATE
NIFTY feels the HEAT
it was a great day if you had a BEARISH view on markets.
As posted yesterday I was expecting NIFTY to test 24200 and break its critical support of 24000 in immidiate future but markets would do it today itself that wasn’t expected but since things are unfolding in anticipated framework there is nothing to complain.
As I discussed very clearly in above post that the intraday low of 5th,August is going to be absolutely critical so if this selloff has to intensify further then INDICES must sustain below todays intraday low.
If that doesn’t happen then we should get a kind of a pullback or consolidation for near term before next round of selloff takes place.
So lets not get carried away with todays move and focus on basics.
NIFTY setup post BUDGET
BUDGET is behind us now •
and the biggest take away for markets from yesterdays budget was the substantial increase in short and long term capital gains taxes.
where the long term capital gains tax has been increased by 25% from what it was,
and,
the short term capital gains tax has been increased by whopping 33% from what it was.
STT too have been increased significantly.
So if you are a professional trader or an investor in INDIAN MARKETS then these revised taxes are going to hit you very badly.
but if you are someone who does not approach this market professionaly then you are not going to understand that what it actually means.
Anyways lets move on and discuss NIFTY.
As discussed earlier level of 24000 on NIFTY spot is going to be a significant support which if breaks is going to put the entire market under deep pressure.
but as long as thats holding its all fine.
On downside 24250 is a near term pattern support once that breaks index should also break yesterdays low of 24074 as well looking at NIFTY BANK it should only be a matter of time before 24000 breaks on NIFTY.
24000 is such a strong support that, index would require a overnight gapdown to break that.
Lets see.
NIFTY breaks the PATTERN support
NIFTY have broken below its pattern support of 24480 today so the overall uptrend on daily charts have finally vroken.
One very important point to note here is,
this pattern break has happened just one day before a critical event of budget which is going to be presented tomorrow.
So is there any kind of message which market is trying to convey us?
we should find that out in next 48,hours.
for now its clear that near term long trades are not on offer after todays pattern break.
So from here whether markets enters a consolidation phase or a correction phase that we would have to closely monitor,
As long as 24000 stays intact on spot for now there are chances are that markets would remain in a consolidation phase.
but if something comes out of BUDGET and markets break below 24000 then dynamics would change dramatically.
for Indian markets the risk is also growing from U-S-INDICES because after NASDAQ S&P too has broken below its pattern support which is going to add more pressure in global indices so there is clear overnight risk for NIFTY if S&P registers a sharp INTRADAY decline on any given day.
If you are someone who has been anticipating a deeper correction in NIFTY then thats going to unfold only below 24,000.
because so far its only the daily setup which has damaged.
the weekly setup is still strong and that will take time to turn.
So thats it for now lets see how things goes post BUDGET.
NIFTY successfully navigates the critical window on TIME front
NIFTY have successfully navigated the uncertain tine window which was going on since 10-15,july.
As we discussed in above post,
technicaly we were looking for a trend reversal but the only condition for that was a break of pattern support which was at 23980 until yesterday and from today that support have shifted higher towards 24220 on spot.
So as long as this pattern is intact we should keep getting higher highs on NIFTY and dispite some mixed signals from TIME until these PRICE supports are held INDEX is not going to break on lower side,
no chance.
all other equations including some very important TIME factors wont come into play as long as vibration structure of PRICE stays ferm for NIFTY.
As an analyst our job would begin only when markets starts to turn lower below its supports.
As a trader it is an easy market which frankly needs no analysis.
things doesn’t goes on like this we all would agree on that.
there is a saturation point for everything in this world and equity markets around the world are reaching that point may be not today or tomorrow but somewhere during next 15 odd days we should be reaching there.
if markets fails to get periodic pullbacks then that would be quiet dangerous for all market participants because that can trigger unexpected 1 or 2 day sharp selloffs simillar to what we saw on 4th,june.
if positioning in futures markets continues to stay accesively bullish then such selloffs would continue to occur frequently and post every selloff we would see retail traders helpless and under deep sorrows just like we saw exactly 7 weeks back.
markets surely recovered from that incident but many traders have not!
for INDIAN MARKETS budget on next Tuesday is certainly a market moving event so better be careful with that.
this market only requires a small trigger to test and break its supports.
Now when it comes to U-S-INDICES things are not that great.
All INDICES are trading on their own world
People are calling it a rotation shift from tech to smallcaps but volumes does not support that argument.
We have seen markets going down with heavy volumes and when they went higher volumes were significantly lower.
still these things doesn’t matter as long as critical supports are held.
18000 for NASDAQ COMPOSITE and 5510 for s&p;500; are major vibration pattern supports.
everything would stay fine as long as these supports are held.
thats it for today.
Protected: A potential medium term trade is on offer on NIFTY
A sense of change is in air for NIFTY lets look for that from here on
https://ganninsides.com/2024/07/03/nifty-continueds-to-hold-its-price-and-time-supports/
NIFTY from today have entered in an uncertain TIME window.
As I discussed in above post the duration from 10-15,july is going to be a tough tine period simply because,
during this TIME span of these 5 odd days NIFTY and other indices are going to complete critical cycles from 4 different lows.
In simple words multiple cycles are coming to an end of their move till 15th,july,
perhaps this also means that we should look for a change of some kind in overall market behaviour.
ideally we should get that.
lets see.
for now lets move on and discuss critical supports on PRICE front.
On spot for NIFTY major support is still placed at 23980.
A break of 23980 would break the entire uptrend which has been going on since june lows.
So if TIME has to trigger a REVERSAL then PRICE has to break this support level of 23980.
its as simple as that.
Dont go with the flow of anticipations,
wait for MARKET confirmations.
NIFTY continueds to hold its price and time supports
NIFTY has been fermly holding its PRICE and TIME supports which we discussed on 28th,june.
So no reason to turn bearish yet,
below i have shared the revised supports for NIFTY so plz do take note of that.
before we move to that just like to add one more point here.
Last time i advocated on securing 75% of NIFTY from all long trades above 24150.
So far if you have not done that then be very watchful because markets could register a surprise decline of 4 to 5% in a quick fashion.
So in that sinario you may not get that appropriate time to incash on your trades.
Hens dispite index looking fit and fine dont go after them with heavy positions.
avoid that atleast until 10-15 july,
because from 10-15 july on NIFTY we are going to complete 4 different cycles from 4 different lows.
These cycles includes HARMONIC TIME CYCLES,
VIBRATION TIME CYCLE,
HEXAGON DATES,
and,
PRICE and TIME SQUARING DATES.
So when these many cycles are aligning together its tine to stay highly cautious.
No matter index continue to make fresh highs on daily basis.
approach has to be same for next 12 days
Lets end this with price and time supports for NIFTY
On PRICE front supports have shifted higher to 23980 from 23750 and on TIME front mondays low is our nearby support.
So as long as these supports are held trend would continue to stay positive for now.
https://ganninsides.com/2024/06/28/whats-next-for-nifty-post-the-test-of-24000/
whats next for NIFTY post the test of 24000
NIFTY as expected have printed the level of 24000 on spot and have entered in its resistance zone of 24000-24150 which I discussed in 26th,june post.
As a trader if you have been long on NIFTY since 6th or 7th of june like me then this is the point to secure 75% of your profits,
No need to go short yet,
but when we discussed on a topic of RESISTANCE in a strongly trending market then thats always a point to secure max portion of profits from your trades.
Trend is still strong on price front support have shifted higher to 23750 from 23500.
So as long as level of 23750 is held buy on dipps and stay long approach would still kee working but from here prefer to chase longs with thin volumes.
On TIME front short term cycles have been bullish for NIFTY and they would continue to stay this way as long as spot manages to close above yesterdays low of 23805.
If in case INDEX register a daily close below 23805 then that would turn the cycles on opposite side which ideally would put pressure on markets and in that sinario we could see NIFTY testing levels of 23350 and 22850 on downside in coming days.
Today we have quarterly close as well along with monthly close so there would be some index edgesments in final hour of trade today.
Lets see how that goes.
broadly there is no point anticipating for a REVERSAL as long as PRICE&TIME supports are held.
So better not to waste time in that.
thats it for now.
Lets see how things goes from next week.
holding 23500 NIFTY can print 24000 which happens to be its next major resistance
As we discussed in sundays post the lowest intraday low of 21st and 24th,june would draw a line between a trend continuation and a trend REVERSAL.
so holding 23350 trend on TIME front for now would continue to stay strong.
A daily close below 23350 would trigger a sharp trend reversal on NIFTY.
On PRICE front as I have been discussing here since past several days that holding 23250 which is a pattern support the structure of NIFTY is likely to stay BULLISH.
with recent price expansion that support have shifted higher towards 23500 on spot.
so holding 23500 NIFTY could test level of 24000.
which also happens to be a next major resistance.
the zone of 24000-24150 is going to be a very strong resistance on upside.
So bottom line is holding 23350-23500 zone technical setup is likely to remain strong.
Possiblity for a REVERSAL would persist only below mentioned support zones.
gann,insides 