Category: Gann INSIDES INDICES UPDATE

Bearish Outlook Intensifies for S&P 500

https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/17/prepare-for-turbulence-key-dates-risks/

On January 17th, I shared a post with my subscribers in which I discussed the market setup for Indian and U.S. markets. The overall plan was to stay on the short side on both markets. Specifically on the S&P 500, I pointed out January 24th as a price and time squaring date, which usually indicates a trend reversal. So, a turn was likely, and today’s decline further strengthens the bearish outlook going forward. Despite the S&P moving higher in the past week, I maintained the same outlook. I would expect that we likely have a double top breakdown from the 6100 zone. Let’s see if this view holds true; then we are likely headed towards 5600 in the next few weeks. “As I previously warned, bearish and precarious market conditions were evident in leading tech stocks like NVIDIA and Microsoft. I expect these conditions to deteriorate further.”

The Road Ahead for Nifty: Volatility and Uncertainty

NIFTY broke below its significant support of 23,000 yesterday. However, the decline appears to be temporary for now. A sustained trade below 23,000 on the spot market is likely to drag prices towards the zone of 22,400 to 22,600 in the near term. With India VIX above 17, a one-way decline is unlikely. Markets are likely to head lower, but in a volatile manner. NIFTY is currently trading well below its resistance. As noted multiple times, volatility is likely to remain high until January 24th. Therefore, stay nimble with your trades. It is better to avoid careless trading. From here on out, it would be ideal to operate at lower volumes.”

Nifty: Temporary Respite Ahead of Further Lower Lows

https://ganninsides.com/2025/01/15/nifty-navigates-choppy-waters-support-holds-but-risks-remain/

“NIFTY, as discussed in the 15th January post, 23,000 is a strong support and holding that. There is a short-term probability of a rebound towards the zone of 23,550 to 23,700, which is the resistance zone.

However, this shall only be a temporary respite; the medium-term trend remains firmly bearish. So, post this rebound, expect further lower lows.

On the time front, until 24th January, vibrations are likely to stay on the higher side, so it’s better to be watchful.”

Prepare for Turbulence: Key Dates & Risks

“Expect significant market declines, impacting both India and U.S. markets, potentially starting on Tuesday due to the U.S. market holiday on Monday. The period from January 17th to 24th will likely be characterized by high volatility. Pay close attention to Tuesday and Friday, January 24th, as particularly critical dates. Friday, January 24th, is a price and time squaring date for the S&P 500, which could lead to interesting market movements. Exercise caution and consider short positions.”

“Should Nifty breach the 23,000 level, the next significant support zone may lie around 22,600 on the spot market.”

“A potential Bank of Japan rate hike next Friday could trigger significant market volatility. This unexpected move would likely reverberate across global markets, demanding close attention and a reassessment of investment strategies.”

NIFTY Navigates Choppy Waters: Support Holds, But Risks Remain

“As mentioned in my Sunday’s post, the November low of 23,263 for NIFTY was psychologically important. However, more importantly, the zone of 23,000 to 23,100 is a critical support because it represents a 45-degree angle from its September high of 26,277. Consequently, on Monday, the index, as expected, broke its November low.”

“However, NIFTY has thus far managed to maintain its critical support level at 23,000. As long as this support holds, a rebound towards the resistance zone of 23,550 to 23,700 remains a possibility.”

“While pockets within the Indian market exhibit signs of oversold conditions and may trigger short-term rebounds, the underlying bearish medium-term trend remains firmly in place.”

“The S&P 500 has also filled its election results day gap. Further lower lows are certainly possible, but a short-term pullback may occur.”

“On the time front, for both Indian markets and U.S. markets, some very strong cycle dates are lined up from January 17th to 24th. Expect some wild price swings in Indian and global markets starting around Friday.”

Time Cycles and Market Turmoil: S&P 500 and NVIDIA

The S&P 500 experienced a sharp decline yesterday following the FOMC meeting outcome. Prior to this decline, the index had been trading within a relatively narrow range, exhibiting sideways movement.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/03/niftys-double-edged-sword-a-risky-play-for-traders/https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/03/niftys-double-edged-sword-a-risky-play-for-traders/

“We have been diligently monitoring the S&P 500, and I have consistently shared technical updates on its performance. Notably, on December 3rd, I published a post highlighting December 6th as a pivotal turning point based on time cycle analysis. Furthermore, I identified the price range of 6080 to 6120 as a critical resistance zone, aligning with the confluence of price and time-based forecasting models.”

“As anticipated, the index reached its peak on December 6th, reaching a high of 6100. Subsequently, the index exhibited a reversal in trend. Moving forward, the 5840 level assumes significant importance as a critical support level. A decisive break below this level would trigger a more pronounced downside move, with an initial target set at 5620. Further analysis and insights will be provided upon the breach of the 5840 support level. From a time cycle perspective, the next significant date to observe is January 2nd.”

Okay, let’s shift our focus to NVIDIA.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/13/nvidias-128-support-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine-for-the-market/

NVIDIA experienced a significant decline earlier this week, breaching the critical support level of 128. As I previously discussed on Friday, this breach had the potential to trigger broader ramifications within the tech sector. Yesterday’s trading session provided a glimpse into this potential impact.”

“On NVIDIA, I would be looking for levels of 110 and 90 over the course of the next few weeks. Markets globally are about to turn extremely volatile from here on, so it’s best not to get carried away with wide fluctuations. Eventually, markets should be headed lower from here.”

“The coming weeks promise a dynamic market environment for traders.”

Nifty Index: Breach of Support Raises Breakdown Concerns

https://ganninsides.com/2024/12/13/niftys-volatile-descent/

“As anticipated last Friday, December 17th emerged as a pivotal turning point for Nifty and other NSE indices. This precipitated a sharp decline yesterday. Today’s breach of the 24,180 support level has unequivocally confirmed a significant breakdown, a scenario I’ve been highlighting for the past two weeks.”

“Today’s intraday low dipped below 24,180, raising concerns about a potential significant shift in market momentum. However, a decisive daily close below 24,200 is necessary to confirm a major breakdown. We await today’s closing price for a clearer picture of the market’s direction.”

“Should the market close below 24,200 today, it would strongly suggest a breakdown with an initial downside target of 23,800 on the spot market. Given the significance of tomorrow and Friday in the time cycle analysis, these dates will require close monitoring.”