Author: SAAHIL BELIM

MY NAME is SAAHIL and I have been actively trading in EQUITY MARKETS from 2014. I have been using Gann theory in my TRADING JOURNEY since 2016. my approach to Gann THEORY is totally different than what you may have seen or heard in various YOUTUBE VIDEOS. I have developed multiple MATHEMATICAL MODELS which are based on METHODS described by sir gann in his courses. I never had used any kind of CHARTS to identify the TREND. hens I never share CHARTS to illustrate my view. I like to keep things SHORT and to the POINt!

MARKETS MID WEEK UPDATE

NIFTY have less then 48 hours to achieve our upside target objective of 22,325 on spot.
it cannot go on this way any more.
its baffling at the same time quiet hilarious that we are not getting even a 100 points of move on 1 direction.
Let’s see whether month end flows or MSCI rebalancing helps us to get those targets or not.

MONDAY was an important CYCLE DATE as we discussed earlier.
So as long as MONDAYS LOW holds on closing basis overall setup is likely to stay sideways to up.
Only a close below MONDAYS LOW would turn the setup BEARISH.

NIFTY BANK should be a key INDEX to track.
A print of 46,100 on cash would be a BEARISH sign.
A case for a waterfall decline could actually open up below that.
Watch out very closely.

RELIANCE should avoid the print of 2900 else entire NIFTY could feel the pain.
Things are approaching border lines critical 4 hours for MARKETS.

MARKETS WEEKLY PREVIEW

SIDEWAYS WEEK FOR INDIAN MARKETS.

NIFTY had a dull week where accept TUESDAY and THURSDAY no major volatility was seen.
Although new highs were made which we did discussed on last SUNDAY,
but the lackluster PRICE ACTION at highs with absolutely no MOMENTUM actually leaves less scope for PRICE EXPANSION on upside.
Still we have been working with a target of 22,325,
but for some reasons INDEX has so far failed to achieve that target.
let’s see next week.

I have described this entire upmove as a TRAP and so far the overall PRICE ACTION have completely confirmed that.
here we all need to understand the objective of a TRAP!  we cannot have a TRAP for a tiny higher high above a prior high.
we so far have not even got a 1% move on upside above the previous high of 22,126.
so all said and done  as long as NIFTY spot stays above 21,800-22,000 higher highs are more likely.

MARKET MOVING WEEK ON TIME FRONT

TIME wise NEXT WEEK NIFTY would enter in its 49th week from MARCH 2023 LOW,
this is an important TIME development since this is happening on WEEKLY T/F.
DURING the WEEK dates of 26th 28th and 29th could generate peak VIBRATIONS.
26th specificlly because that’s an ANNUAL CYCLE DATE.
From 1st week of MARCH the overall intensity of MARKETS would reach at totally at a different level because on monthly T/F in MARCH all global INDICES would aline more then 4 CYCLES from various LOWS.
WOULD discuss this in greater detail in next weekly post.

U-S-INDICES reached fresh highs post Q4 print from NVIDIA.

Despite one selloff after another leading to increased volatility, the markets are currently hitting all-time highs as the speculative chase for return heats up.
“I am not a fan of Soros, but this market has the look and feel of the dot com bust of 2000. In a few short words, the AI investment phenomenon is feeding on itself just as the internet and fiber did in 1999.
If you have been following me since OCTOBEr,
I layed down a small possiblity of NASDAQ going for a BUBBLE.
I also said this at that TIME as well  that it’s easy to refer MARKET BUBBLES after they are BURSTED but very tough to call them in real time.
In DECEMBER when NASDAQ broke above JULY high the possiblity of a MARKET BUBBLE actually confirmed.

I dont want to repeat all those things which various X accounts are putting up on daily basis.
INDICES are more concentrated on handful of tech and AI STOCKS everyone knows that,
that’s an easy thing to do!!
let’s do something which is not easy!

TECHNICAL UPDATE

In my previous weekly UPDATE I shared the date of 20th FEBRUARY as an important CYCLE DATE.


I also posted very clearly that to hint a TOP INDICES have to close below the INTRADAY LOW of 20th,FEBRUARY.
MARKETS fell on 20th but failed to close below that days LOW.
GOING FORWARD the faith of this AI MARKET rally lies entirely on 20th FEB LOW.
Only a daily close below 20th FEB LOW would confirm a TOP of this MARKET at much higher degree of trend.
If you prefer to follow the trend then have patience until this happens.

On PRICE front PRICE-TIME-EQUALITY LEVELS for S&P and NASDAQ are placed at 5010 and 15,600 respectively.
As long as these levels are held higher highs are likely.
On TIME FRONT next week would be 50th week from 2023 lows.
So volatility should further pick up,
specificlly DATES of 26th 28th and 1st MARCH would be critical CYCLE DATES during the week.

so all in all an intresting week coming up.
see you guys next week with a weekly preview.
thanks for reeding and BEST WISHES for the week ahead.

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY tested the half way mark of entire upmove from 21,530-22,249 at todays INTRADAY LOW and then turned higher.
As I have been mentioning since 15th,FEBRUARY  it’s a complicated setup not at all easy to trade.
if I.T.
&
RELIANCE doesn’t pick up from here then again selloff is likely from highs.
I had shared a simple target of 22,325 on spot,
but it’s not happening.
still as long as spot closes above 22,000 or holds the print of 21,850 we still have to stay open for upside target.

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY as of now should easily have achieved our upside Target objective of 22,325 as we discussed yesterday.
but for known or may be unknown reasons it’s taking more TIME.
let’s see what TOMORROW have in store for MARKETS.
If MARKET avoids a GAP-DOWN tomorrow then target is coming tomorrow but its risky.
we already discussed on critical support yesterday which continues to be at 22,000 on closing basis.
since we have a MARKET moving EVENT tonight so better go HEDGED for TOMORROW.

NIFTY EOD UPDATE for 20/02/2024

NIFTY on anticipated lines continued higher.
in yesterdays EOD POST we discussed the near term PATTERN target of 22,325 on spot  which still continues to be a pending target to achieve.
As we discussed in SUNDAYS post from MONDAY to WEDNESDAY MARKETS could stay up,
the real test of this upside is due from THURSDAy onwards.
SUPPORT for NIFTY is at 22,000 on closing basis.
So this throw over move is likely to continue as long as 22,000 is held.

NIFTY BANK with todays upside may certainly have created excitement in majority of traders but during next 3 days that should again dial back.
HDFCBANK is our top pick for our short accounts in 2024 so in next few days we would certainly utilize this move.

That’s it for today,
See you guys TOMORROW.