Author: SAAHIL BELIM

MY NAME is SAAHIL and I have been actively trading in EQUITY MARKETS from 2014. I have been using Gann theory in my TRADING JOURNEY since 2016. my approach to Gann THEORY is totally different than what you may have seen or heard in various YOUTUBE VIDEOS. I have developed multiple MATHEMATICAL MODELS which are based on METHODS described by sir gann in his courses. I never had used any kind of CHARTS to identify the TREND. hens I never share CHARTS to illustrate my view. I like to keep things SHORT and to the POINt!

could LUNAR ECLIPS spark a MINSKY moment in FINANCIAL MARKETS

Gann INSIDES weekly MARKET UPDATE

“SUMMARY”

the week gone by was a normal week for INDIAN MARKETS  where NIFTY and BROADER MARKET  cooled off their highly oversold technical reedings post recovery from Wednesday’s LOWS!  but for U-S-MARKETS it was yet another week of fresh record highs  which marginally accelerated the rally post FOMC meat!

this week our focus would be on global MARKETS specificlly on U-S-MARKETS and other risk assets like BITCOIN and GOLD.

next week  we have LUNAR ECLIPS on MONDAY which is a key development for all FINANCIAL ASSETS let’s discuss on that below.

the (LUNAR,ECLIPS) this MONDAY could gradually Phlip the narrative from extremely optimistic to extremely pessimistic. but that would take TIME for atleast some days.
ECLIPSES are always very strong COSMIC EVENTS which brings notable changes on MARKET trends.
unfortunately many analysts over the years have failed to acknowledge the role of an ECLIPS on overall MARKET analysis.
people have always looked for an instant reaction to conclude the impact of an ECLIPS  but in reality it takes around 2 to 3 weeks of TIME before we see that VIBRATIONAL impact to reflect on PRICES!

as human beings we always lack that patience to wait until complete impact of an ECLIPS is reached.
if you go and check any ECLIPS post 3 weeks we always would get a MARKET REVERSAL not only on PRICE but also on sentiments and narratives as well!

No need to go much far  just go and check what happenned post SOLAR and LUNAAR ECLIPSES of OCTOBER 2023

always remember these ECLIPSES historiclly have always occurred before significant trend shifts.

prepare for one such trend shift in next few weeks which would have its IMPACT till SEPTEMBER of 2024!

“UPDATE on NIFTY”

Nifty  Setup is very much simple!  On thursday I shared level off 22,150 as an ideal rebound level in a normal sinario!  and on FRIDAY MARKET easily achieved that!  things should get really intresting from tuesday  if NIFTY have ended its recovery at fridays high then next week it should break level of 21,840 on downside  once that break short term PATTERNS would trigger fresh breakdown for target objectives of 21,625 and 21,400 on spot!

Note 21,600 is a channel support on weekly charts!  Once that breaks on a weekly closing basis then this entire advance from OCTOBER 2023 lows would officially come to an end  how much low it can go post that conformation is something we shall discuss some other day! As traders we shall approach things one step at a TIME!

“KEY LEVELS to watch on S&P;500 “

S&P throughout last few days successfully defended the level of 5050 which we were discussing as a final support  a break of that would certainly signal the end of this entire advance which started from OCTOBER 2023!  need to have patience until that breaks!

On MONTHLY charts S&P have entered in a very strong GANN ANGLE resistance zone currently  these monthly ANGLES are placed in zone of 5250-5350  if INDEX stays under 5350 going forward and breaks the intraday low of 18th,MARCH on a closing basis  then that would signal a TIME CYCLE REVERSAL  because 18th,MARCH was a “PRICE TIME SQUARING DATE”  for S&P we discussed on this in past week as well!

On TIME front next week 27th and 28th MARCH are going to be very important ANNUAL CYCLE dates for not only S&P but for all U-S-INDICES!so expect some sharp moves on these dates!

until one of the above criterias are met INDEX can continue with it’s current consolidation at highs!

“BITCOIN”

Over the last few years, digital currencies and , gold,  have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites!  Of course, it is not just a speculative frenzy in the markets for stocks, specifically anything related to “artificial intelligence,” but that exuberance has spilled over into gold and cryptocurrencies!

Technically BITCOIN have an important support at 60,000$ on downside  once that breaks we could get BITCOIN below 45000 in next few weeks! if 60,000 breaks then MARCH 14th high could hold for next couple of years! do watch out very closely!

Unfortunately, for individuals once again piling into Bitcoin to chase rising prices, if, or when, the market corrects, the decline in cryptocurrencies will likely substantially outpace the decline in market-based equities. This is particularly the case as Wall Street can now short the spot-Bitcoin ETFs, creating additional selling pressure on Bitcoin.

“GOLD”

Gold was supposed to be an inflation hedge. Yet, in 2022, gold prices fell as the market declined and inflation surged to 9%. However, as inflation has fallen and the stock market surged, so has gold. now when STOCK MARKETS are expected to turn lower   would GOLD be able to continue with its BULLISH momentum?

Technically 2225 high is a good enough resistance which shall hold  but as long as COMEX GOLD holds 2100 on downside   things are likely to stay fine for now!   Once 2100 breaks we could get GOLD towards 2030 and 1960 in next few days!  TIME wise 2nd half of APRIL is going to be very critical!

would leave it here for now  wishing all reeders a colorful festival greetings from me and my team.

DOLLAR holds the key to disturb sanity of GLOBAL MARKETS

WATCH OUT for DXY very closely.
a move above 105.10 would signal fresh leg of upside towards 107.75 and 109 in coming days! Once it takes out 105.10 that would be extremely BEARISH for risk assets like BTC and EQUITIES and safe havens like (GOLD&SILVER)!
Practically it should get there very soon TIME CYCLES atleast are pointing towards more upsides for $  I would be watching for $,JPY a move above 152,25 could signal a test of 156 and 161,
which would be enough to trigger a RISK-OFF sentiment for GLOBAL MARKETS!

HOW TO approach this pullback on INDICES

NIFTY could extend this pullback beyond 22,150 on spot in a normal sinario! as I discussed yesterday as a short-term trader look to secure profits on shorts and prefer reentering on higher levels! So as expected MARKET have rallied from lows and once we go closer to 22,100 we would look to add positions for downside target objectives of 21,625 and 21,400 ideally in next few weeks!

NIFTY have allready fallen almost 800 points from the TOP without any negative developments in global markets! so from here to achieve targets below 21,400 it would require downside participations from global INDIces!

sooner or later we certainly would get that participation but as TRADERS we have to draw a line during which phase we want to get more active and during which phase we want to get less active!   we now are in a phase where less activity is required!

FED MEETING triggered the rally on U-S-INDICES

something was about to happen post EVENT  and we saw MARKETS move higher! fall in IMPLIED VOLATILITY in OPTIONS MARKET along with VIX expiration was a primary reason behind yesterdays upside! very much tactical in nature which is not unusual! Infact this IMPLIED VOLATILITY factor have always produced upside on all critical EVENT days “whether its (CPI) (NFP) or (FOMC).

that’s why we usually witness rally on those EVENT days!  it have less to do with that EVENT itself! that sounds strange but since the inception of 0 D.T. OPTIONS this volatility crush post EVENTS have occurred regularly!

technically with a higher high above 5189 S&P could follow the exact PATTERN which NIFTY played out from 23rd,FEBRUARY to 11th,MARCH!  eventually things would resolve on downside but as long as PATTERN supports are holding as TRADERS we can’t do much! but as ANALYST since PRICE and TIME have squared we can convince ourself that a REVERSAL is round the corner!  whether that takes 2,days 4,days or 6,days that we would see going forward!

MORE THEN DIRECTION your TIME FRAME MATTERS from here

its ANNIVERSARY DATE for NIFTY  from 2023 LOW!

NIFTY yesterday broke the all important support of 21,800 on intraday basis but failed to close below that! On technical basis a close is required for added conformation!  as I have been very clear that this support will break and MARKETS are going towards JANUARY lows on LARGE CAP INDICES  that view is very much intact!  obviously that would take some TIME so if you cannot wait in cash part of your profits and reenter again on higher levels!

more then direction your TIME/FRAME is going to matter as a TRADER!

If you are someone who have capitalized on this recent 700 points decline from high of 22526 then a bounce of 200 to 300 pts shouldn’t bother you but if you have been short since 22100 then look to secure your profits! it’s certain that INDICES in next few weeks are headed much lower  but keeping that fact in mind we would have to deal with short term volatility and have to strategize accordingly!

I have been selling calls  and that trade have worked considerably well!  Very soon I would share that trade which I gave to subscribers on 1st of MARCH  when MARKETS went up crazily!

FOMC MEAT finally can push U-S-INDICES out of their consolidation!

S&P is consolidating in 80 point band since last 10 days  this cannot last forever!  todays EVENT should finally trigger a large move!  5050 on downside is absolutely critical as long as that’s holding TOP cannot be confirmed!  dispite a potential PRICE and TIME square TOP cannot be confirmed until 5050 breaks on downside!

expecting that to break soon! with or without a new high! critical seasonal date today as well! EQUINOX always matters for WALL STREET!

ITC a fresh BREAKDOWN is imminent

ITC is likely to retest its 2024 LOW of 399 again and this TIME it shall go below that easily! those who understand simple GEOMETRY they would undestand that 399 falls exactly at a 90° ANGLE from its JULY 2023 high of 499! and once that breaks STOCK would retest its 135° angle support of 364 in next few days! for near term  break of 399 would also trigger a PATTERN breakdown which Would have target objective of 382!

GANN INSIDES WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE

not much to add In addition to what I shared in last week!

first do checkout what I discussed in last weeks weekly UPDATE!

https://ganninsides.com/2024/03/09/weekly-market-update-2/

PREVIEW

last week I discussed on growing unsustainable divergence between smallcaps and the (NIFTY)!  I also discussed on 7 most critical STOCKS for INDIAN STOCK MARKET!

this week as expected that divergence for NIFTY resolved on downside! and out of TOP magnificent 7 STOCKS accept ICICI;BANK,HDFC;BANK and INFY other 4 STOCKS have registered a notable PATTERN breakdown which would have significantly BEARISH implications going forward!

TECHNICAL UPDATE

NIFTY

TOP is in for NIFTY as we have been discussing since last 2 weeks now! this end under 22,600 would have lot of significance in DAYS-WEEKS and MONTHS ahead!

on NIFTY 21,800 is a key support once that breaks  a sharp decline towards 21,610 and 21,390 could be tested!  broadly below 21,800 INDEX would prepare itself to break JANUARY LOW of 21,137! Once that LOW of 21,137 breaks NIFTY would trigger a all-PATTERN-breakdown which would have severe MEDIUM TERM implications!

S&P;500

S&P is likely to SQUARE out its PRICE with TIME tomorrow on 18th,MARCH!  since INDEX have struggled to take out 5,185 the level which I have been discussing since last 2 weeks  it’s only a matter of TIME before a significant PRICE REVERSAL triggers! we are very close once 5050 breaks it’s all over! expect that to break very very soon!

this would be a textbook PRICE TIME SQUARE REVERSAL which once confirms would end this RALLY from OCTOBER 2023 LOW we really should not look too far  but if this actually plays out according to BOOKS then that OCTOBER 2023 LOW of 4103 is likely to break going forward! would approach that step by step! for now working targets are 4955 and 4840 on downside!

lot off things can go wrong for MARKETS in coming days! stay cautious!

what’s next for NIFTY after yesterdays sharp selloff

it looks like NIFTY have ended its rally under 22,600  which I had been expecting since late FEBRUARY!

A close below 22,220 have provided us the conformation for a TOP which we have been looking for some days now!  although dispite having that confirmations we still dont have a structure for a waterfall decline simillar to what SMALLCAP INDEX had few days back! we still require more severe technical breakdown especially on NIFTY!

that breakdown is placed below 21,800 on SPOT! once that breaks on a closing basis we then could see a brutal liquidation on NIFTY which would drag the INDEX atleast below JANUARY LOW of 21,137!

here we have to note an important point!  the TOP which we are discussing is a major 4th SECTION TOP of the entire advance which started from LOWS of JUNE,2022 and MARCH,2023!  so it’s not going to be a small pullback and fresh highs!  this TIME it would be different!  I wrote an article on 16th,FEBRUARY explaining this point in detail!

TOMORROW is a very significant date for NIFTY as I discussed in my Saturdays post  so be watchful on whatever trades you are going to carry for TOMORROW!  the overall range is going to be very wide  then usual 200 to 300 points band which we have seen since mid FEBRUARY!  this time it would be 300 points either sides from 22,100!

Another thing which I would be watching closely is U-Shttps://ganntradersaahil.wordpress.com/2024/02/16/nifty-setup-as-i-see-it/-MARKETS!

on S&P I have given 5185 as a very important PRICE TIME SQUARING LEVEL  TIME wise its date is on 18th,MARCH  frankly I think it’s only a matter of TIME before U-S-INDICES turns lower we only have to look for whether they gets a higher high above 8th,MARCH high or straight away they turns lower!  let’s see!

NIFTY SMALLCAP 100 INDEX at an INFLECTION POINT

NIFTY is not actually reflecting what’s happening in BROADER MARKET!

SMALLCAP INDEX at 15000 is at a significant support  as we have discussed in past!  A close below that would trigger a MEDIUM TERM REVERSAL!  remember a MEDIUM TERM REVERSAL would mean a fall towards 13600 to 13200 very conservatively!

for NIFTY holding above 22220 on closing basis nothing actually changes technically!  TOP cannot be confirmed until then!  NIFTY BANK too had VIBRATED significantly on TIME TUNES!  one more lower low below todays imtraday low would bring lot of chaos going forward!

whether INDICES makes a move from tomorrow or they would hang in here for few more days?  lot would depend on todays CPI PRINT of U-S due in EVENING!

CRITICAL CPI REPORT COMING UP FOR U-S-INDICES TODAY EVENING!

very important session for wall street today. In my weekly post I shared level of 5050 on S&P as a very important PATTERN support below which we could see a sharp decline in coming days!   INDEX yesterday went to 5090 and recovered! Technically trend is turning south  but for any reason if INDEX pushes higher post CPI PRINT and breaks 5189 then that rally is unlikely to sustain!

5185 is a PRICE-TIME SQUARING LEVEL for S&P so PRICE expansion above this level is going to be very tough! let’s see  do watch out for 5050 very closely not only for today but for coming days as well!

NIFTY got a free fall below the HARMONIC SUPPORT of 22220 which we discussed multiple times since last 2 days! next support is at 21,800!  watch out!