Author: SAAHIL BELIM

MY NAME is SAAHIL and I have been actively trading in EQUITY MARKETS from 2014. I have been using Gann theory in my TRADING JOURNEY since 2016. my approach to Gann THEORY is totally different than what you may have seen or heard in various YOUTUBE VIDEOS. I have developed multiple MATHEMATICAL MODELS which are based on METHODS described by sir gann in his courses. I never had used any kind of CHARTS to identify the TREND. hens I never share CHARTS to illustrate my view. I like to keep things SHORT and to the POINt!

quick update on NIFTY

NIFTY as expected have marched towards 22800 on spot.
Since INDEX took out its major resistance of 22350 our view has been BULLISH, and we have turned our short term trades towards upside.

Going forward tomorrow is a key cycle date so tomorrows low would be critical.

On downside supports have shifted higher to 22550 from 22350 as long as 22550 stays protected on upside 23025 and 23270 could be tested.

NIFTY UPDATE

As discussed on last Wednesday a move above 22350 would eliminate all bearish options for short term.
and on last Thursday in a dramatic last hour surge we saw NIFTY moving above 22350.

Since then  we have seen INDEX moving up steadily.
And most likely its again marching towards all time high territory of 22800 on spot.

on downside support stands at 22300 on spot holding 22300 NIFTY is likely to trend higher.
If in case 22300 breaks then we could again see INDEX testing levels of 22100 and 21900  in few days.

On TIME front  this week we have one natural cycle date for INDIAN and U-S-INDICES which would be on 24th,MAY.
Specially for U..S MARKETS 27th,may is going to be vary critical TIME CYCLE DATE.

MARKETS are approaching important resistance levels

NIFTY UPDATE

As we discussed in sundays post,  13th was a minor but important cycle date for NIFTY  a failure to close below 13th,low would restrict INDEX from making further lower lows on immidiate basis.

this recovery on NIFTY from mondays low have reached a critical resistance today which stands at 22350 on spot.

If on any given day INDEX moves above 22350 all short term bearish options would dissappear for near term as long as spot maintains under 22350 those options would continue.

Since past few days i have shared 21700 as a medium term trend reversal level for NIFTY,
for some reasons markets are holding that.
And until and unless 21700 is protected there wont be any change on overall market texture.
the up-down trend of NIFTY will carry on as far as 21700 is held.
As analyst I can give a statement that 21700 will break, but as a trader until and unless market conferms that view i cannot put heavy trades on that view.

As of now we are still not in a type of market where we can carry over our trades.
So having a fixed frame of mind wont help for the time being.

U-S-INDICES too are at an intresting juncture

S&P;500 could print a fresh record high, post CPI DATA due today EVENING

As discussed in sundays post  for S&P making a new high  is not a major thing sustaining above 5300-5350 zone is something which holds greater significance.
As long as level of 5350 doesnt breaks risk of a sizable correction possibly towards 4800 in next 2,months would continue to strongly persist!

when it comes to DXY and U-S-10,Y they both have been in longer term uptrend since past several weeks.
dispite short term pullbacks broader uptrend hasn’t been compromised yet.
On upside on DXY we are working with target of 108 and on U-S-10,Y our working target of 5.30 is still intact till late july!

gann insides update on near term MARKET approach

when things are working fine  you dont want to over analyse markets and make things complicated for yourself and your subscribers.

As reeders of this post are well aware  that my view on MARKETS has been slightly BEARISH since early MARCH, and we had deployed multiple bearish strategies using OPTIONS to accommodate our view.
Since early APRIL  our focus has been on selling FUTURES.
as i write this post, i and several of my clients have been heavily short, and during the upmove during late APRIL we have substantialy added fresh positions.

every individual have a different risk appetite so i have  to communicate on position sizing to each trader individually.

coming back to near term approach now

Tomorrow on 13th,may  we have a minor cycle date for NIFTY  If NIFTY gives a daily close below tomorrows low then this time it certainly would break 21700 and once that breaks it would register a medium term reversal  which would have severe implications for next few months.

On upside pattern resistance have drifted lower to 22350.
As long as INDEX stays under 22350 its good to move lower towards 21865 and 21640 on spot.
TIME wise next week 13th and 16th would be critical CYCLE DATEs.

both these dates of 13th and 16th would have their different characteristics because they both represents different CYCLES.
those who have understood these cycles using my methods they would easily understand the difference between various cycles, but if you are someone who is not aware on the basic concepts then for you its not that easy to get-in with whats going on, or whats about to go on in coming days!

when it comes to U-S-INDICES they have been slowly inching higher,  as discussed earlier holding 6th,may lows on closing basis all INDICES would continue with their positive trend.


New high cant be ruled out, but for s&p price expansion above 5300 5350 is going to be a real challenge.
Because that happens to be a major gann angle resistance on monthly charts.

Lets see , intresting week coming up!

NIFTY near term update

NIFTY yesterday achieved our primary pattern target of 22100 on spot.
Not only that  with yesterdays low of 21931 INDEX went very close towards our 2nd,target of 21865.
Post yesterdays sharp selloff INDEX is making a recovery attempt today,
Lets see how long this lasts.
Since today is a weekly close  watch out for 22044 very closely.
A close today below 22044 would break sq9,channel on weekly basis, in addition to that   it too would significantly increase odds for a medium term breakdown.

UNDERSTAND the MARKET MESSAGE and act accordingly

https://ganninsides.com/2024/05/03/nifty-is-getting-uncomfortable-at-highs/

As posted on last FRIDAY when INDEX printed a fresh record high and registered a sharp INTRADAY REVERSAL, I discussed on 3 key points.
Lets again revisit them.

1, listen the MARKET message.

3 reversal bars in last 25 days from its major gann angle resistance of 22776 is giving us a very important signal on the next potential direction on INDEX which could be on downside.

Lets see, what actually triggers that,
ongoing elections could be one of those excuse, or something external on geopolitical front, whatever it would be, reasons wont matter.
We only require a trigger which drags INDICES below their ultimate supports!

2 6th,MAY would hold a greater significance for all MARKETS

As noted couple of times during last week  date of 6th,MAY was very significant specially the intraday lows of 6th would be considered as a key pivot for next several days!

On NIFTY we have broken mondays low convincingly  hens no surprise that it is drifting lower in a staggered manner.
but on S&P mondays low is still intact so as long as that is holding we would have to rule out an immediate collapse.

if we are looking for major supports to break on NIFTY  then global markets too have to turn lower.
Just to get primary indications for a reversal we would be closely watching for mondays intraday lows!

3, 22300 happens to be a pattern support on PRICE front

As we discussed on last Friday 22300 was a key pattern support a break of that level has opened up downside target objectives of 22100 and 21865 on spot.
On expected lines index is moving down towards 22100.
This move lower would be slow compared to the decline which we saw from last Fridays high.
Resistance on upsides are placed at 22600.

This break still is not sufficient to trigger a medium term reversal on NIFTY.

Thats still placed below 21700.
Now having that support from TIME and PRICE once again  we would expect 21700 to break till 15th or 16th,MAY.
let’s see, with VIX at multi year highs,  this TIME we could see supports going through finally.

just to finish it off, look for that open chart gap on NIFTY  which persists at 22178.
this occured on 22nd,APRIL.

once that gap fills momentum would pickup further on downside!

BANKBARODA is approaching critical support

BANKBARODA is approaching its highly critical support of 250.
A break of 250 would technicaly reverse the uptrend here which have been going on since MARCH 2023.
There is a fare possibility that the entire rally officially ended at MARCH 2024 high of 285,
but we would still prefer to wait  until level of 250 is broken.
Once that breaks we would get 3,dimensional breakdown on gann setup which would have target objectives of 229 and 210 on cash  in coming days!