TIME to stay a bit cautious on MARKETS if critical supports breaks post potential turn dates

gann insides weekly MARKET UPDATE

As we discussed on this TUESDAY

UPTREND continues to stay fermly intact for MARKETS

more or less markets did what we were expecting,
things are likely to get more intresting from next week.

lets discuss NIFTY first

NIFTY during the week continued with its trend of higher highs.
the overall weekly range was bit narrow but thats not a sufficient reason to think other way.
On tuesday I shared the level of 23250 as a critical pattern support and a trailing stop loss for all existing longs,
so as long as this level is held the price structure of NIFTY is likely to stay BULLISH,
If in case 23250 breaks then INDEX would enter in a corrective territory which would drag price towards 22850 on spot.

On TIME front as we discussed on tuesday   for NIFTY potential turn dates are on 21&24,june

the manner in which NIFTY turned lower from fridays high could actually trigger a trend reversal in NIFTY,
the amount of voletility which we saw in fridays session have giben us preliminary indications for a direction change.
since FRIDAY was a turn date and on MONDAY we hav another turn date so a probability of a turn is significantly higher.

still we should wait for market confirmation before taking trading positions.
and we shall get that conformation once INDEX starts to sustain below lowest intraday low of FRIDAY and MONDAY.

for medium term

On weekly charts significant support on NIFTY is placed at 22900  so as long as 22900 is held on weekly closing basis  the broad trend for NIFTY would continue to stay BULLISH.
so irrespective of intra-week voletility if INDEX fails to end the week below 22900 then INDEX would continue to make new higher highs post minor pullbacks.
A TOP cannot be established as long as key supports are held on weekly charts.

now lets move forward 2 S&P;500

S&P  continued with its formations of higher highs during the week but as we discussed on this TUESDAY  on price front 5530 would be a point of resistance,
On Thursday morning it tested the level of 5505 and post that INDEX vitnesed a pullback.
As of now we would have to consider it as a normal pullback  but if INDEX starts to register a daily close below 5400 mark then that would trigger a minor degree REVERSAL  which should drag S&P towards 5280 on downside.

On TIME front next week on 24th&25th,june we have a strong turn dates for all major U-S-INDICES so we would have to look for the combined intraday low of both these days very closely.

If price and time meets their criteria for a trend reversal next week then  that would trigger a type of a REVERSAL which BEARS had been waiting for since past several months.

1 very critical thing which happened during the week was a potential REVERSAL in NVIDIA.

until now everyone who has been a part of the ecosystem of financial markets would be aware on a fact that entire tech sector in U-S is depended on the trend and trajectory of one stock which is NVIDIA.
a section of human being on this planet have started to think that future of our planet would depend on how much more NVIDIA can deliver with its advanced AI chips.
Frankly everyone has turned so future focused that present reality doesnt really matter.

jokes apart  it looks like something has ended at 140 on NVIDIA.

Just to be more sure we would be looking for a print of 118 on NVIDIA if stock prints the level of 118 then it would register a medium term reversal which would have targets of 98 and even 87 during next few months.

A turn in NVIDIA would practically mean a turn in entire market.
so do watch out for that.

thats it for now,
there is lot to watch out for next week.
intresting week coming up.

ONGC UPDATE

ONGC has been one of the strongest STOCK in whole of PSU sector baaring DEFENSE,

technicaly setup is strong and during next few days we would continue to expect further higher highs here above MAY high of 292,
Looking at its pattern placement we would prefer to buy this STOCK at CMP and on dipps till 260 for potential target objectives of 300 and 324 on cash in coming days and weeks.

UPTREND continues to stay fermly intact for MARKETS

Trend continues to stay fermly strong for NIFTY  as we have been discussing since 6th,june.

So all trades still has to be on long side.
Anticipating a trend change in a LOW VIX environment is not going to work out.
Hens as professional traders look to chase INDICES on long side atleast till market register a change of some kind either on PRICE front or on TIME front.

so lets quickly discuss critical points on PRICE and TIME front.

PRICE

NIFTY

for NIFTY  all price patterns are bullish so the easy thing is to respect patterns and stay with long trades with trailing stops.

until friday our trailing stops were placed at 23020 which from today would be revised higher to 23,250,
so keep it short look to buy all dipps which ends above 23250 on spot,
initial signs for REVERSAL would only come when the given level is broken.
On upside 24000 is a gennuan resistance so if trailing stops are held most probably INDEX should print 24000 before making a turn.

S&P

S&P after clearing its major resistance of 5350 have extended its rally further.
Higher highs should still continue as long as PRICE sustains above 5350  but turn cautious if INDEX starts to give a daily close below 5400.
On upside 5530 is a point of pattern resistance,
watch out closely what INDEX  does when it reaches there.

TIME

On TIME front as far as INDICES holds last fridays low on closing basis setup would continue to project further higher highs.
specificly for INDIAN MARKETS 21st and 24th,june are very critical turn dates.
So watch out for a potential trend change closer to these dates.

similarly for U-S-INDICES potential trend change dates would be on 24th and 25th,june.
So from early next week expect voletility to return back which would put pressure on markets.

thats it for now.

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY the momentum have slowed a bit  but trend still continues to be fermly on upside.


atleast as long as support of 23020 is held on spot there is no scope for any kind of a meaningful REVERSAL for near term.
Higher-highs should continue.
Tonight we have a MARKET moving EVENT in form of FOMC meat,
Looking at the technical setup even on S&P,
this EVENT should resolve on upside for all INDICES.
lets see,
expecting markets to stay mostly higher till FRIDAY.

NIFTY approaching fresh highss

NIFTY had fermly held its supports which we discussed yesterday.
with the break of 23050 today INDEX is on its way towards fresh all time highs.

supports have shifted higher to 22800 on spot now.

TIME wise market should stay positive till 12th to 15,june,
because there are no major CYCLE DATE until then,
15th,june specificly would be more critical.

So buying dipps ideally should work out till 15th,
Anything till 22800 would be safe  below that better to avoid!

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY intraday ranges should keep getting narrower from here.
Expecting markets to get normal post todays weekly expiry.
Last 2,days have wiped out trading capital of many retail traders so be very responsible with your position size and the overall approach which  you desire to take directionaly.
As far as trades are cunserned that obviously has to be on long side.
On upside 23050 is a resistance once that breaks new highs shall come.
Under 23050 INDEX would stay within uncertain shades of its technical setup.

On downside support is at 22450-22550  as long as this zone is held buy on dipps trade could work out.

If this support breaks a test of 22100 would be on cards.

Trade with thin volumes the upmove from yesterdays low seems artificial to me.

still it should be fine holding supports.

In my weekend posts since past 2 weeks I had constantly advocated to add SEPTEMBER puts to capitalize on any kind of Market decline  and during tuesdays decline those puts went up by almost 4 to 5 times.

We would again get simillar apportunity to reenitiate simillar trades.
Ideally post 15th june i would update on this.
Until then look to follow the short term levels.

NIFTY setup post yesterdays dramatic selloff

NIFTY  should move on from this ELECTION outcome till tomorrow,


and focus should shift back to technical setup once again.
MARKETS are still highly voletile and thats understandable after what happenned yesterday.
Yesterdays carnage had flagged few authentical questions on the credibility of the long term BULL-MARKET in INDIAN INDICES whether Yesterdays fall was a one off or is this something which would convert into a trend?
thats something we would come to know in next few days.

with the break of 21700 yesterday  setup is shaping up for a medium term decline but to conclude that i would still prefer to wait for some more evidence
Atleast i would wait for a daily close below  21700.

for immidiate term until this dust settles i am looking for a wide range of 22500 on upside and 21600 on downside.

If you have made decent profits yesterday then avoid Taking trades on INDICES.