Author: SAAHIL BELIM

MY NAME is SAAHIL and I have been actively trading in EQUITY MARKETS from 2014. I have been using Gann theory in my TRADING JOURNEY since 2016. my approach to Gann THEORY is totally different than what you may have seen or heard in various YOUTUBE VIDEOS. I have developed multiple MATHEMATICAL MODELS which are based on METHODS described by sir gann in his courses. I never had used any kind of CHARTS to identify the TREND. hens I never share CHARTS to illustrate my view. I like to keep things SHORT and to the POINt!

Gann INSIDES weekly MARKET UPDATE for SUBSCRIBERS

gann insides weekly market update

INDIAN MARKETS,had a strong week  but continuing this trend in coming days is going to be challenging.

Next week would be a busy week on HEAVEN’S with SOLAR ECLIPS on MONDAY  and some rare conjunction of outer planets on Wednesday!

we are still within that 3 week window post lunar eclipse which we discussed earlier  still we wont see that impact during next week as well.
actual impact would be visible only from the week starting from  15th,APRIL.

so lets check out how key major INDICES are placed technically.

“TECHNICAL UPDATE on INDICES”

“NIFTY BANK”

NIFTY BANK has recieved the recent push higher on back of strength on HDFC BANK , other then that Internal components of INDEX doesnt have much strength.
Technically 48636 the DECEMBER high would act as a major resistance.
Once that vreaks we could see INDEX Testing its monthly gan angle resistance which currently is placed at 49500 on cash!

On HDFC,BANK  i posted on 9th MARCH  that above 1471 we could see the price expansion on upside.
All,though this upside still consists all elements of a counter trend rally we would approach the setup watchfully.
I would expect this move to limit under 1580.
Lets see.
medium term target of 1270 is still intact here!

“NIFTY”

On NIFTY as I have discussed during the week  4th and 5th,APRIL were  critical CYCLE DATE and we got a very sharp swings on 4th,APRIL   on both sides.  Going forward a daily close beond 4th,APRIL range would generate a good tradable move for near term! A failure to go through beond 4th,APRIL range would keep overall trend on INDICES absolutely sideways and this could persist this way for next 2 weeks atleast!

On upside there is not much room beond 22600 but still once 4th,APRIL high is crossed we could get NIFTY around 22800 before REVERSAL actually kicks in!

broadly until and unless the PATTERN of ascending flat TOP stays operational we as traders would not get any multi beggar trade on NIFTY.  this flat TOP PATTERN is visible not only on NIFTY  similar PATTERN is there on all U-S-INDICES and even on BITCOIN as well! Historicly such patterns  always breaks with some unfriendly market development which  noone ever expected! 2020 was one such example.
Lets see this TIME!

such patterns are always difficult to trade.

absolute patience is required to trade specially the vreakdown part.
because that sometimes take more time then one would expect!

“S&P:500”

S&P after thursdays selloff have broken key swing lows  but pattern supports are still intact.
5050-5120 is very important support which would have to break for a dramatic turn lower.
On monthly charts INDEX is turning lower after testing its gann angle resistance.

the CPI PRINT due on 10th,APRIL would be a major catalyst for overall trend analysis.
I think that can drag INDEX  below its supports.

Will leave it here for now!

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY has registered a strong REVERSAL on a key TIME CYCLE DATE and from a very strong resistance of 22600.

I have discussed the resistance of 22600 several times since mid MARCH!   going forward todays sharp INTRADAY REVERSAL still may not put INDEX out of overall sideways trend neither it signify the HIGH as an established TOP!
This actually further finetunes the (ascending flat topping pattern) more clean and the most accurate assessment of recent price action.
Since this PATTERN is developing on weekly charts hens thats taking more time and still can take few more days to complete!
TIME wise today and tomorrow are annual cycle dates as i discussed on Tuesday.
So intraday lows of both these days would be very critical!

WOULD WEEKNESS in GLOBAL INDICES end NIFTY’S struggle at ALL TIME HIGHS

As expected after a  400 points UP day on 28th,MARCH NIFTY has gone sideways at highs. I posted on that day as well that  these kind of days should be utilize to sell  OPTIONS specially CALL OPTIONS.


same setup was there in early MARCH same setup is again available in early APRIL! Lets see again the same PATTERN repeats in APRIL or not?  I would think it would!

Technically as i explained earlier  that there is no trade for OPTION buyers since late February the ideal trade has to sell monthly OPTIONS with appropriate risk management in place.  Now when VIX is approaching 11  that equation of selling OPTIONS is slightly getting more risky!

“CRITICAL LEVELS TO WATCH FOR NIFTY”

levels wise I have given upside tragictry of 22600 with 1% more here and there  as maximum stretch which should contain this move at highs.  this is not a MARKET which is going to give a runaway move on upside. So better not to get excited with the feeling of fresh highs. As a trader these highs are of no use!

for short term as long as spot stays above 22080-22180 on downside  expect current sideways to UP trend to prevail for few more days.  TIME wise 4th and 5th,APRIL would be critical CYCLE TURN DATES!

Watch out for DXY and BRENT very closely  both are giving breakout which wont go well with RISK assets.

U-S-INDICES are already feeling that pain today   lets see whether this time they take down there supports or not.  5120 very critical for S&P,500!

TIME to increase TRADING activities on NIFTY

On 21st,MARCH  I discussed that we should limit our trading activity on NIFTY  and at the same TIME should also cover the shorts.
we were looking for a pullback towards 22,150 in a normal sinario which we easily got  but post that the required thrust to resume next leg lower had been missing 21840 was that key support level breaking which another leg lower was due as of yesterday!

with todays rally that level have shifted higher  but broadly the TIME has come to increase trading activities on NIFTY again!  this doesn’t necessarily mean to close your eyes and go short straight away but need to get prepared to pull the trigger as and when short term technical signals flashes conformations!

these 300 to 400 pt up days are perfect days to short monthly calls! but that requires a proper risk management mechanisms in place.  unfortunately for RETAIL TRADERS the conditions aren’t compelling enough to buy OPTIONS.
Strategically still as traders selling OPTIONS would make money!  until and unless VIX moves above 15  this is the only way to go!

Technically NIFTY is within the framework of TOPPIMG formation this PATTERN in gann theory is known as ASCENDING FLAT TOP” where INDEX keeps retesting the high every 3 to 4 weeks.
A daily close below 21800 would had broken it but since that dint happenned the PATTERn keeps rotating and this has kept everyone on their toes specially those who prefer to follow trend.
because they are trying to find something which is not there!

As I have repeatedly mentioned in my past articles 22600 is that level which should hold at highs  few points here and there.
Once U-S-INDICES turns lower expect NIFTY to break 21710 soon.
Matter of more days nothing else! Once quarterly edgestments are done things should get back to basics!

https://ganninsides.com/2024/03/21/how-to-approach-this-pullback-on-indices/

OVERVIEW of INDEX TRADES and the probable path going forward

let’s check out what was the TRADE WHICH I Discussed on 1st,MARCH

https://ganninsides.com/2024/03/01/nifty-options-trade/

1 month later

As we expected on 1st of MARCH NIFTY stayed under 22500 so the decision to sell MARCH expiry call of 22500 at 270 was a wise decision! at that TIME it sounded foolish  but those who trusted have utilized the complete premium today! 2 weeks back when NIFTY crossed 22,500 few of the members were concerned but after detailed discussion things were again fine!

these trades were taken in heavy volumes  hens accumulated profits are good enough for this month!  especially after an absolutely sideways month we have to think that as traders  we have done a decent job!

initially we were not expecting a major rally in MARCH dispite a significant up day  on 1st of MARCH As we all remember post that rally people started to project targets of 23000 and 23500 during the MONTH!

along with this I shared one more trade which was for APRIL expiry

that also have done well  the combined premium for 22500 straddle for 25 APRIL expiry have declined from 1012 points on 1st MARCH to 614 as of today.


21500 put too still have a premium of 68 for APRIL this too should do well!

these trades requires good amount of capital to be deployed hens I never share these trades to RETAIL TRADERS.

let’s end with UPDATe on NIFTY

21,840 was a key level which I shared in my sundays post.
As long as that’s holding on spot the consolidation should carry on for next 2 or 3 days more.
this week anyways is a sandwich week where nothing major would be expected  we shall take a fresh view from next tuesday   not from next monday! first day of new series is usually BULLISH!

U-S-INDICES too awaits a turn lower which I would expect in next 2 days  which TIME wise happens to be an ANNUAL CYCLE dates!

see you guys later during this weekend I shall be travelling hens wont be publishing the weekly UPDATe!

could LUNAR ECLIPS spark a MINSKY moment in FINANCIAL MARKETS

Gann INSIDES weekly MARKET UPDATE

“SUMMARY”

the week gone by was a normal week for INDIAN MARKETS  where NIFTY and BROADER MARKET  cooled off their highly oversold technical reedings post recovery from Wednesday’s LOWS!  but for U-S-MARKETS it was yet another week of fresh record highs  which marginally accelerated the rally post FOMC meat!

this week our focus would be on global MARKETS specificlly on U-S-MARKETS and other risk assets like BITCOIN and GOLD.

next week  we have LUNAR ECLIPS on MONDAY which is a key development for all FINANCIAL ASSETS let’s discuss on that below.

the (LUNAR,ECLIPS) this MONDAY could gradually Phlip the narrative from extremely optimistic to extremely pessimistic. but that would take TIME for atleast some days.
ECLIPSES are always very strong COSMIC EVENTS which brings notable changes on MARKET trends.
unfortunately many analysts over the years have failed to acknowledge the role of an ECLIPS on overall MARKET analysis.
people have always looked for an instant reaction to conclude the impact of an ECLIPS  but in reality it takes around 2 to 3 weeks of TIME before we see that VIBRATIONAL impact to reflect on PRICES!

as human beings we always lack that patience to wait until complete impact of an ECLIPS is reached.
if you go and check any ECLIPS post 3 weeks we always would get a MARKET REVERSAL not only on PRICE but also on sentiments and narratives as well!

No need to go much far  just go and check what happenned post SOLAR and LUNAAR ECLIPSES of OCTOBER 2023

always remember these ECLIPSES historiclly have always occurred before significant trend shifts.

prepare for one such trend shift in next few weeks which would have its IMPACT till SEPTEMBER of 2024!

“UPDATE on NIFTY”

Nifty  Setup is very much simple!  On thursday I shared level off 22,150 as an ideal rebound level in a normal sinario!  and on FRIDAY MARKET easily achieved that!  things should get really intresting from tuesday  if NIFTY have ended its recovery at fridays high then next week it should break level of 21,840 on downside  once that break short term PATTERNS would trigger fresh breakdown for target objectives of 21,625 and 21,400 on spot!

Note 21,600 is a channel support on weekly charts!  Once that breaks on a weekly closing basis then this entire advance from OCTOBER 2023 lows would officially come to an end  how much low it can go post that conformation is something we shall discuss some other day! As traders we shall approach things one step at a TIME!

“KEY LEVELS to watch on S&P;500 “

S&P throughout last few days successfully defended the level of 5050 which we were discussing as a final support  a break of that would certainly signal the end of this entire advance which started from OCTOBER 2023!  need to have patience until that breaks!

On MONTHLY charts S&P have entered in a very strong GANN ANGLE resistance zone currently  these monthly ANGLES are placed in zone of 5250-5350  if INDEX stays under 5350 going forward and breaks the intraday low of 18th,MARCH on a closing basis  then that would signal a TIME CYCLE REVERSAL  because 18th,MARCH was a “PRICE TIME SQUARING DATE”  for S&P we discussed on this in past week as well!

On TIME front next week 27th and 28th MARCH are going to be very important ANNUAL CYCLE dates for not only S&P but for all U-S-INDICES!so expect some sharp moves on these dates!

until one of the above criterias are met INDEX can continue with it’s current consolidation at highs!

“BITCOIN”

Over the last few years, digital currencies and , gold,  have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites!  Of course, it is not just a speculative frenzy in the markets for stocks, specifically anything related to “artificial intelligence,” but that exuberance has spilled over into gold and cryptocurrencies!

Technically BITCOIN have an important support at 60,000$ on downside  once that breaks we could get BITCOIN below 45000 in next few weeks! if 60,000 breaks then MARCH 14th high could hold for next couple of years! do watch out very closely!

Unfortunately, for individuals once again piling into Bitcoin to chase rising prices, if, or when, the market corrects, the decline in cryptocurrencies will likely substantially outpace the decline in market-based equities. This is particularly the case as Wall Street can now short the spot-Bitcoin ETFs, creating additional selling pressure on Bitcoin.

“GOLD”

Gold was supposed to be an inflation hedge. Yet, in 2022, gold prices fell as the market declined and inflation surged to 9%. However, as inflation has fallen and the stock market surged, so has gold. now when STOCK MARKETS are expected to turn lower   would GOLD be able to continue with its BULLISH momentum?

Technically 2225 high is a good enough resistance which shall hold  but as long as COMEX GOLD holds 2100 on downside   things are likely to stay fine for now!   Once 2100 breaks we could get GOLD towards 2030 and 1960 in next few days!  TIME wise 2nd half of APRIL is going to be very critical!

would leave it here for now  wishing all reeders a colorful festival greetings from me and my team.

DOLLAR holds the key to disturb sanity of GLOBAL MARKETS

WATCH OUT for DXY very closely.
a move above 105.10 would signal fresh leg of upside towards 107.75 and 109 in coming days! Once it takes out 105.10 that would be extremely BEARISH for risk assets like BTC and EQUITIES and safe havens like (GOLD&SILVER)!
Practically it should get there very soon TIME CYCLES atleast are pointing towards more upsides for $  I would be watching for $,JPY a move above 152,25 could signal a test of 156 and 161,
which would be enough to trigger a RISK-OFF sentiment for GLOBAL MARKETS!

HOW TO approach this pullback on INDICES

NIFTY could extend this pullback beyond 22,150 on spot in a normal sinario! as I discussed yesterday as a short-term trader look to secure profits on shorts and prefer reentering on higher levels! So as expected MARKET have rallied from lows and once we go closer to 22,100 we would look to add positions for downside target objectives of 21,625 and 21,400 ideally in next few weeks!

NIFTY have allready fallen almost 800 points from the TOP without any negative developments in global markets! so from here to achieve targets below 21,400 it would require downside participations from global INDIces!

sooner or later we certainly would get that participation but as TRADERS we have to draw a line during which phase we want to get more active and during which phase we want to get less active!   we now are in a phase where less activity is required!

FED MEETING triggered the rally on U-S-INDICES

something was about to happen post EVENT  and we saw MARKETS move higher! fall in IMPLIED VOLATILITY in OPTIONS MARKET along with VIX expiration was a primary reason behind yesterdays upside! very much tactical in nature which is not unusual! Infact this IMPLIED VOLATILITY factor have always produced upside on all critical EVENT days “whether its (CPI) (NFP) or (FOMC).

that’s why we usually witness rally on those EVENT days!  it have less to do with that EVENT itself! that sounds strange but since the inception of 0 D.T. OPTIONS this volatility crush post EVENTS have occurred regularly!

technically with a higher high above 5189 S&P could follow the exact PATTERN which NIFTY played out from 23rd,FEBRUARY to 11th,MARCH!  eventually things would resolve on downside but as long as PATTERN supports are holding as TRADERS we can’t do much! but as ANALYST since PRICE and TIME have squared we can convince ourself that a REVERSAL is round the corner!  whether that takes 2,days 4,days or 6,days that we would see going forward!

MORE THEN DIRECTION your TIME FRAME MATTERS from here

its ANNIVERSARY DATE for NIFTY  from 2023 LOW!

NIFTY yesterday broke the all important support of 21,800 on intraday basis but failed to close below that! On technical basis a close is required for added conformation!  as I have been very clear that this support will break and MARKETS are going towards JANUARY lows on LARGE CAP INDICES  that view is very much intact!  obviously that would take some TIME so if you cannot wait in cash part of your profits and reenter again on higher levels!

more then direction your TIME/FRAME is going to matter as a TRADER!

If you are someone who have capitalized on this recent 700 points decline from high of 22526 then a bounce of 200 to 300 pts shouldn’t bother you but if you have been short since 22100 then look to secure your profits! it’s certain that INDICES in next few weeks are headed much lower  but keeping that fact in mind we would have to deal with short term volatility and have to strategize accordingly!

I have been selling calls  and that trade have worked considerably well!  Very soon I would share that trade which I gave to subscribers on 1st of MARCH  when MARKETS went up crazily!

FOMC MEAT finally can push U-S-INDICES out of their consolidation!

S&P is consolidating in 80 point band since last 10 days  this cannot last forever!  todays EVENT should finally trigger a large move!  5050 on downside is absolutely critical as long as that’s holding TOP cannot be confirmed!  dispite a potential PRICE and TIME square TOP cannot be confirmed until 5050 breaks on downside!

expecting that to break soon! with or without a new high! critical seasonal date today as well! EQUINOX always matters for WALL STREET!

ITC a fresh BREAKDOWN is imminent

ITC is likely to retest its 2024 LOW of 399 again and this TIME it shall go below that easily! those who understand simple GEOMETRY they would undestand that 399 falls exactly at a 90° ANGLE from its JULY 2023 high of 499! and once that breaks STOCK would retest its 135° angle support of 364 in next few days! for near term  break of 399 would also trigger a PATTERN breakdown which Would have target objective of 382!