Author: SAAHIL BELIM

MY NAME is SAAHIL and I have been actively trading in EQUITY MARKETS from 2014. I have been using Gann theory in my TRADING JOURNEY since 2016. my approach to Gann THEORY is totally different than what you may have seen or heard in various YOUTUBE VIDEOS. I have developed multiple MATHEMATICAL MODELS which are based on METHODS described by sir gann in his courses. I never had used any kind of CHARTS to identify the TREND. hens I never share CHARTS to illustrate my view. I like to keep things SHORT and to the POINt!

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY the momentum have slowed a bit  but trend still continues to be fermly on upside.


atleast as long as support of 23020 is held on spot there is no scope for any kind of a meaningful REVERSAL for near term.
Higher-highs should continue.
Tonight we have a MARKET moving EVENT in form of FOMC meat,
Looking at the technical setup even on S&P,
this EVENT should resolve on upside for all INDICES.
lets see,
expecting markets to stay mostly higher till FRIDAY.

NIFTY approaching fresh highss

NIFTY had fermly held its supports which we discussed yesterday.
with the break of 23050 today INDEX is on its way towards fresh all time highs.

supports have shifted higher to 22800 on spot now.

TIME wise market should stay positive till 12th to 15,june,
because there are no major CYCLE DATE until then,
15th,june specificly would be more critical.

So buying dipps ideally should work out till 15th,
Anything till 22800 would be safe  below that better to avoid!

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY intraday ranges should keep getting narrower from here.
Expecting markets to get normal post todays weekly expiry.
Last 2,days have wiped out trading capital of many retail traders so be very responsible with your position size and the overall approach which  you desire to take directionaly.
As far as trades are cunserned that obviously has to be on long side.
On upside 23050 is a resistance once that breaks new highs shall come.
Under 23050 INDEX would stay within uncertain shades of its technical setup.

On downside support is at 22450-22550  as long as this zone is held buy on dipps trade could work out.

If this support breaks a test of 22100 would be on cards.

Trade with thin volumes the upmove from yesterdays low seems artificial to me.

still it should be fine holding supports.

In my weekend posts since past 2 weeks I had constantly advocated to add SEPTEMBER puts to capitalize on any kind of Market decline  and during tuesdays decline those puts went up by almost 4 to 5 times.

We would again get simillar apportunity to reenitiate simillar trades.
Ideally post 15th june i would update on this.
Until then look to follow the short term levels.

NIFTY setup post yesterdays dramatic selloff

NIFTY  should move on from this ELECTION outcome till tomorrow,


and focus should shift back to technical setup once again.
MARKETS are still highly voletile and thats understandable after what happenned yesterday.
Yesterdays carnage had flagged few authentical questions on the credibility of the long term BULL-MARKET in INDIAN INDICES whether Yesterdays fall was a one off or is this something which would convert into a trend?
thats something we would come to know in next few days.

with the break of 21700 yesterday  setup is shaping up for a medium term decline but to conclude that i would still prefer to wait for some more evidence
Atleast i would wait for a daily close below  21700.

for immidiate term until this dust settles i am looking for a wide range of 22500 on upside and 21600 on downside.

If you have made decent profits yesterday then avoid Taking trades on INDICES.

NIFTY LEVELS to track on counting day

NIFTY on counting date have a defined range on upside and downside,


the direction would primaryly depend on where NDA tele settleds down.
still as per patterns zone of 22950-23000 could act as an important support.
for today atleast holding this support zone MARKETS should trend up.

On upside at 23530 there is a pattern pivot if thats taken away rally would extend sharply higher.
Trade with very tite stops,
Voletility would be significantly higher.

MARKET INSIDES post EXIT POLES and before actual RESULTS

EXIT POLE projections are out  and that has veen in line with what market was expecting.


markets expectations for NDA was between 370-400  and EXIT POLES on an average have given the projections of 361 in favor of NDA.


so on 4th,june if NDA scores around 360 then that would satisfy markets as far as expectations are conserned.


Anything under 350 would be slightly negative for MARKETS.
Lets see, as of now its only projections  so the EVENT risk still would continue to persist  atleast till Tuesday afternoon.

If in case NDA gets above 400 then that would be a positive surprise for markets.


for markets during the course of next 2 days more then its technical setup direction would entirely depend on how much more can NDA get above that 350 mark.


atleast till Wednesday afternoon or till Thursday morning election results shall dominate market trends,


but post thursday morning markets would move forward from elections and markets should get bac to basics.

Anyways at the end of the day markets moves on corporate earnings.
Yes political equations does matter to some extent  but above everything else for long term its always earnings which drives STOCKS higher or lower.

If you dig in further   then earnings too moves in CYCLES just like everything else in this world.

before i come to NIFTY levels would like to make one final point here

for the first time in indias history we have seen top  government officials openly and publicly commenting on markets reaction on election results day.
Since elections started on 19th,APRIL we have seen  PRIME MINISTER, FINANCE MINISTER and even HOME MINISTER in their several interviews reluctantly saying that MARKET would break all records on 4th,june,


SO there must have been some arrangements done for that we dont know what exactly they have planned but it would be intresting to see how top officials intent to manage markets.
Next 48,hours shall be intresting and exciting.

Anyways lets move on and discuss critical levels to track on NIFTY

https://ganninsides.com/2024/05/26/setup-for-the-final-week-before-that-all-important-election-results/

Last week we discussed 2 support levels for NIFTY

1,was 22908 on closing basis  and 2,was 22786 on spot which was a pattern support.

During the week we saw NIFTY breaking both its supports and turn lower towards its pattern objective of 22575,
Our next downside objective was 22355 but it dint went there and because I have said in last weeks post itself that whatever trades you have  look to exit them on 31st,MAY,
Obviously you cannot go in an EVENT with one sided unhedged trades,
and for investors i also advocated to hedge portfolios with SEPTEMBER puts.
If you have done that then carry on with those puts,
because those puts would make a lot of sense once this election dust settles down.

For next week levels are unlikely to make sense till Wednesday but still on upside 22850 is going to be a key pivot,
above 22850 we would be looking for further higher highs closer towards 23400-23,600.
Lets see how markets open tomorrow.

NIFTY achieved our primary target

NIFTY today achieved our near term pattern target of 22575 on spot,


so the breakdown which happened yesterday have reached its primary destination today.
Going forward market would wait for the EVENT to pass through before making next move.
but for now technical setup is of sell on rise, for targets of 22355 and 22125,


need to be on edge.
Voletility has to be managed until pole results are out!