Author: SAAHIL BELIM

MY NAME is SAAHIL and I have been actively trading in EQUITY MARKETS from 2014. I have been using Gann theory in my TRADING JOURNEY since 2016. my approach to Gann THEORY is totally different than what you may have seen or heard in various YOUTUBE VIDEOS. I have developed multiple MATHEMATICAL MODELS which are based on METHODS described by sir gann in his courses. I never had used any kind of CHARTS to identify the TREND. hens I never share CHARTS to illustrate my view. I like to keep things SHORT and to the POINt!

US Market Strength Ignites Indian Rally, But Volatility Looms

https://ganninsides.com/2024/09/11/all-roads-lead-to-rome/

“Markets rallied sharply yesterday, driven by weekly options expiry and a strong surge in U.S. indices. As we previously discussed, September 11th was a critical cycle date, and we anticipated increased market volatility from that point. We’ve indeed seen significant price swings since then. The Nifty has also become more volatile, and this volatility, both in U.S. and Indian markets, is likely to intensify further. This heightened volatility could persist until at least October 15th.”

“Despite short-term gains, the S&P 500 remains at risk of retesting the 5,119 level in October, regardless of whether a new high is reached. Market sentiment is expected to shift following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy announcement on September 18th.”

“Yesterday’s NIFTY session saw a significant breakthrough, closing above its crucial resistance level of 25333. While I won’t delve into the nuances of spot closes or edge-of-day behavior, this development marks a turning point for the immediate term. NIFTY remains well-positioned to test levels closer to 24020 in the coming days. Despite seeming counterintuitive, the cyclical alignment on daily and weekly timeframes suggests a potential pullback in both Indian and U.S. markets. Regardless of current market conditions, this time-based reversal indication is unlikely to change. In essence, we’re witnessing a conflict between price and time. As traders, we can only observe and benefit from the wide fluctuations this conflict generates. Ultimately, time will prevail, achieving its predetermined goals.”

“Historically, NIFTY’s performance after September 15th has been bearish over the past two years (2022 and 2023). While we can’t expect an exact repeat, it’s reasonable to anticipate a similar downward trend this year. Moreover, the market’s recent completion of important weekly cycles from March and October 2023 lows suggests heightened volatility and potential price fluctuations in the coming days.”

The Illusion of Control: Trading in a Time-Driven Market

So “Based on our analysis, we’re continuing to accumulate December 25,000 put positions and plan to hold them until mid-October. Our strategy involves identifying strategic timeframes to counter prevailing market trends. We’ve successfully executed similar trades in late May and late July, and we’re optimistic about the potential outcome this time.”

All roads lead to Rome

https://ganninsides.com/2024/09/08/the-september-storm/

“NIFTY reached its near-term pattern target of 24,755 on Monday morning but was unable to close below that level, halting further downside price expansion in the immediate term. The index recovered after hitting this support, but the current setup remains bearish. Technically, it will continue to be bearish as long as NIFTY spot doesn’t close above its September 2nd high of 25,333. While this seems unlikely, if it happens, it won’t change our view of a potential test of the 24,020-24,320 zone, which is also its multi-pattern support on the weekly charts. In all likelihood, a test of these levels is inevitable. Therefore, regardless of the market’s short-term movements, the overall trajectory remains bearish.”

“Tonight’s U.S. CPI release could significantly impact markets. While investors were once fixated on CPI, recent shifts in focus toward labor markets have added complexity to the equation. A cooler-than-expected CPI might initially buoy equities but could weaken the dollar, potentially impacting the yen and, consequently, stocks. A hotter-than-expected reading could force a reassessment of rate cut expectations, potentially triggering stagflation. Additionally, S&P and NASDAQ are approaching their 60-day mark from their July highs. This could lead to increased volatility, which is generally not bullish for the market on more sustained basis beond a day or two.”

“If you’re looking to capitalize on potential volatility, consider adding 25,000 December puts. This strategy aims to profit from market fluctuations. Hold the trade until October 15, allowing the market to naturally evolve. To maximize gains, sell any upside above 25,300 and consistently trade against the prevailing price trend during this period. While I anticipate increased intraday volatility, the overall market remains relatively calm. Let’s see how the next few days unfold for both Indian and global markets.”

The September Storm

https://ganninsides.com/2024/08/30/navigating-the-market-key-support-levels-and-cycle-date/

“September has opened on a bearish note for financial markets, as anticipated. As I’ve previously mentioned, I expected a significant market reversal starting around September 2nd in Indian markets and September 3rd in U.S. indices. This week’s market decline, following the major cycle resistance on the time front, aligns with these predictions. If our calculations are accurate, this week’s downturn is just a precursor to a more substantial market decline. While the road ahead may be volatile, the overall implications remain bearish.”

So “Let’s cut to the chase and discuss the levels.”

NIFTY

https://ganninsides.com/2024/09/05/niftys-recent-gann-cycle-date-and-outlook/

“A breach of the 25,000 level on the Nifty 50, coupled with a surge in the INDIA VIX to 15.2, indicates a potential technical breakdown. Near-term price targets for this breakdown are estimated at 24,755 and 24,522. If the index consistently closes below these levels, it could signal a more pronounced decline, potentially reaching 24,200 or lower without a significant rebound.”

“To trigger a sustained decline, a multi-pattern breakdown on weekly charts would be essential. Currently, the Square of 9 support for NIFTY is at 24,320, and the Hexagon Pattern support is at 24,020. Therefore, NIFTY would need to close below 24,020 on a weekly basis to initiate a multi-pattern breakdown. To reverse the underlying bullish trend that has been in place since October 2023, NIFTY will need to break below these support levels. Failure to do so would maintain the current trend.  I discussed this in early August as well. At that time, the index narrowly avoided a breakdown on its weekly charts, and the subsequent events are well-documented in recent history.”

On TIME front Critical cycle dates for Indian and GLOBAL MARKETS would be on September 13 19 20 and 24

S&P;500

https://ganninsides.com/2024/08/25/market-setup-and-outlook-for-next-week/

“The S&P 500 has been quite intriguing. In my August 25th post, I mentioned a potential resistance level at 5675. The index approached this level closely before turning sharply lower on its critical cycle date of September 3rd. It’s encouraging that it didn’t break above its previous high.”

“Initially, I didn’t anticipate a new high for the S&P and Nasdaq. However, as the indices approached that level, my team and I, as analysts, had to consider alternative scenarios. Interestingly, the alternative path we identified also resolved to the downside after a brief upward surge. A key factor influencing our analysis was our close study of time cycles. These cycles indicated a significant trend change on July 11, which aligned with the S&P reaching its peak on that date.”

Based on our analysis of historical market data, we identified two significant low points: October 13, 2022 (3492) and October 27, 2023 (4103). By applying a proprietary mathematical model that considers both temporal and cyclical patterns, we were able to predict a key turning point on July 11.
there is nothing in this world which cannot be proved mathematically.

Give it a try if you are a gann student.”

“Now that the index has rolled over from a lower high, our obvious downside target would be its August low of 5119 in the next few days. Expect increased volatility starting from September 11th, but eventually, the market will likely drift lower. Utilize sharp pullbacks to sell.”

YEN

“USDJPY is poised to break below its August low, which could further fuel market sell-offs. My previous target of 135 remains unchanged, as outlined in my August 25 post.”

“Given the expected market downturn, now is the time to reassess your investment strategy. Consider diversifying your portfolio and potentially scaling back on riskier assets. Stay informed and prepared for the challenges ahead.”

SBI Double Top: A Breakdown is Brewing

SBI remains poised for a potential double top breakdown. On August 6th, I discussed the possibility of a vibration pattern breakdown triggered by a price of 794. While the stock briefly dipped to 795, it subsequently consolidated.
Despite the passing month, 794 continues to serve as a critical breakdown level. If breached, prices could potentially decline to 743 in the near term.
Additionally, the price and time factors are currently in balance. According to Gann’s theory, this alignment often indicates the potential for a substantial price movement.

NIFTY’s Recent Gann Cycle Date and Outlook

The recent Gann cycle date on September 2nd has significant implications for the Nifty index. The high reached on that day now serves as a formidable resistance level. If the index fails to break above this resistance, a potential downward correction could be in store.
When we say a break that actually means a break on a closing basis.
The current spot price support for Nifty remains at 25000. As long as this level holds, the index is likely to remain in a consolidation phase. However, a break below 25000 would signal a potential weakening trend.
Keep a close eye on the INDIA VIX. A reading above 15.2 indicates heightened volatility, which could be a precursor to a market downturn. Additionally, we anticipate a surge in volatility starting next week.
The time period between September 9th and 29th is expected to be particularly volatile for the Nifty and other major markets. Traders should be prepared for significant price swings during this time.

Analysis of TATASTEEL: A Bearish Outlook

TATASTEEL is still bearish. On August 13, we were anticipating a break of its swing low of 148. Post the break of that, we were expecting a drop towards 140 in the near term. The stock dropped till 142 and then recovered.
Going forward, based on its geometrical angles of price and time, this low of 142 should break easily. The appropriate target on the downside would be at 138 in the near term and 125 in the slightly medium term.
Major resistance on the upside would be at 161. Significant time cycle dates would be on September 19 and 20, so do watch out for vibrations on these dates.

Navigating the Market: Key Support Levels and Cycle Date

“NIFTY reached its target of 25,250 today. Given its strong price structure, we anticipated further upward momentum. As the market’s momentum continues, it’s advisable to ride the wave. As long as it persist. Following today’s move, NIFTY’s spot support has risen to 25,000. Therefore, 25,000 and the intraday low of August 28th are now crucial support levels. Holding above these levels will indicate continued market strength.” For INDIAN and GLOBAL MARKETS, September 2nd will be a crucial cycle date. Due to several major markets being closed on Monday, Tuesday will effectively be the cycle date for these markets. This date holds significant potential to trigger a notable near-term reversal across all risk assets. Let’s observe if this cycle date has reinforced the importance of the aforementioned support levels. As traders, we should remain patient and wait for supports to break before initiating reverse trades. As I’ve consistently emphasized, the months of September and October are likely to be highly volatile, so be prepared for such market conditions.