Author: SAAHIL BELIM

MY NAME is SAAHIL and I have been actively trading in EQUITY MARKETS from 2014. I have been using Gann theory in my TRADING JOURNEY since 2016. my approach to Gann THEORY is totally different than what you may have seen or heard in various YOUTUBE VIDEOS. I have developed multiple MATHEMATICAL MODELS which are based on METHODS described by sir gann in his courses. I never had used any kind of CHARTS to identify the TREND. hens I never share CHARTS to illustrate my view. I like to keep things SHORT and to the POINt!

Illusions fade, but the ground remains.

“The market, much like a mirage in the desert, can offer fleeting glimpses of respite, as seen in the recent energetic bounce of the S&P 500. However, seasoned travelers know that such illusions can often mask a more arduous journey ahead. While the US index catches its breath, our focus must also turn to the Indian landscape, where the NIFTY appears to be navigating a more definitive, downward path, its direction influenced by established technical patterns and the looming significance of upcoming time cycle junctures. Let us not be swayed by the temporary oasis but rather chart the course of the more persistent trend.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/04/05/shockwaves-in-the-financial-world-the-week-the-market-buckled/

The S&P 500’s recent volatility has been captivating, holding investors in suspense with its dramatic price fluctuations. As I noted in my previous update last Saturday, my analysis indicated a potential support level for the index within the 4850 to 4950 range on the cash market. Indeed, on Monday, the index touched a low of 4835 before staging a remarkable recovery of nearly 13%. Yesterday’s peak reached 5481, signifying a robust upward movement. Furthermore, regarding timing, I highlighted April 9 as a significant time cycle marker, and fortunately, that day witnessed a substantial upward surge. Looking ahead, the 5481 high will be a crucial level to observe. A breakout above this point could propel the rally further, potentially targeting the 5600 to 5650 area. Conversely, if the 5481 level holds, we should anticipate a subsequent move lower for the index.

Given the significant global events and the persistently high volatility, prioritizing risk management over pure profit potential is a prudent approach in these extraordinary times. Exercising considerable caution in all financial decisions is advisable. The next nearby time cycle dates to monitor are April 14 and April 21.

Given the current market dynamics, it’s wise to resist the allure of a perceived market bottom, as the anticipated rebound could prove to be a temporary reprieve. Following the eventual dissipation of this upward movement, my analysis suggests a potential descent towards levels beneath 4200 within the coming months. A more definitive signal of stabilization and a return to typical market behavior would likely coincide with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) registering a sustained decrease below the 25 threshold.”

NIFTY’s Bearish Grip: Analyzing Overnight Gaps, Support Levels, and Critical Time Cycles

Regarding the NIFTY, the occurrence of significant overnight gaps appears to hold limited technical significance in discerning the underlying trend. Typically, these abrupt price movements at the market open tend to be retraced or “filled” during subsequent trading sessions. Consequently, while these gaps can inject complexity and volatility, particularly for short-term traders navigating intraday price action, they often prove to be noise rather than a clear signal of the dominant trend.

However, adopting a broader perspective and allowing the market to digest these volatile swings can provide a clearer technical picture. Once the immediate turbulence subsides, the market’s behavior should ideally revert to its pre-established trajectory. In the context of the Indian markets, this trajectory has unfortunately been characterized by a bearish sentiment prevailing over the past several months. Despite intermittent short-covering rallies that offer temporary relief, the overarching pattern since September has been one of successive declines, each establishing new lower lows on the NIFTY chart. This reinforces the notion that the medium-term trend remains firmly entrenched in bearish territory.

Nevertheless, the short-term dynamics can present opportunities, albeit with inherent risks. Should positive momentum gather, the ensuing upward movement could indeed catch many market participants off guard, as evidenced by the sharp rallies witnessed in March. This highlights the potential for swift and unexpected reversals within the broader downtrend.

Given the current environment, which I continue to emphasize as being far from typical, exercising caution in trading volumes remains paramount. Operating with reduced position sizes can help mitigate the amplified risks associated with these abnormal market conditions and the unpredictable nature of overnight gaps. It underscores the importance of capital preservation and a more selective approach to trading amidst heightened volatility.

There is still always a process that we follow, and let’s discuss that below.

https://ganninsides.com/2025/04/07/deconstructing-niftys-expected-downward-movement/

Reflecting on the recent market activity, my update on April 7th specifically highlighted the 21500 level on the NIFTY as a significant area of support, anticipating that it could instigate short-lived upward movements. True to this expectation, the subsequent day, April 8th, saw a follow-up analysis where I identified 22200 as another support zone of moderate importance.

Strategically, my plan involved capitalizing on any upward retracements by initiating further short positions as the index approached the 22800 mark. Given the anticipation of a gap up at the market open tomorrow, April 11th (adjusting for the current date), I believe this upward jolt would present a more favorable opportunity to average into our existing put option positions for the June expiry, potentially securing better entry prices.

This approach underscores a tactical maneuver within a broader bearish outlook. While recognizing the potential for temporary rallies stemming from key support levels, the overarching strategy remains aligned with the prevailing medium-term downtrend. The anticipated gap up, while potentially creating short-term volatility, is viewed as a chance to enhance the positioning of our bearish bets at more advantageous levels. The focus remains on capitalizing on these transient rallies to strengthen our short positions, anticipating a continuation of the established downward trajectory in the weeks and months ahead. This disciplined approach aims to leverage short-term market fluctuations to optimize our medium-term bearish strategy.

Considering the cyclical patterns I’ve been monitoring, the periods around April 15th and, more significantly, the week commencing April 21st, appear poised to be pivotal junctures for market direction. The latter half of April, in particular, warrants close attention, especially concerning the banking sector as a whole, which seems to be entering a critical phase. My analysis suggests a potential shift in the primary driver of downward momentum. Having observed the IT sector undergo a substantial correction from January through April, it appears that this sector’s bearish influence may be waning, with the baton of downside leadership likely to be passed to the banking index. The magnitude of the decline witnessed in IT over the past few months could foreshadow a similar trajectory for the banking sector, anticipated to unfold from late April through mid-July.

Furthermore, April 9th marked a key cycle date specifically for NIFTY Bank. The breach of the low established on that critical date would serve as a significant confirmation, potentially unleashing a sharp and decisive downward move in the banking index. This breakdown below the April 9th low would likely signal the commencement of the anticipated bearish phase for the banking sector. Therefore, the coming weeks promise to be particularly insightful. The confluence of these time cycle dates and the anticipated rotation of downside leadership from IT to banking creates a scenario ripe with potential for significant market movements. Observing whether NIFTY Bank breaks below its April 9th low will be a crucial indicator in validating this outlook and the potential for a substantial decline to materialize. The unfolding dynamics should indeed provide compelling trading and investment opportunities, albeit with the need for careful risk management in these still-abnormal market conditions.

Deconstructing NIFTY’s Expected Downward Movement

“NIFTY is likely moving towards the post-election crash low of 21,281 on the spot market. I think that level will also break, and the index should gradually move towards 20,200-20,300 on the spot market. Now, the question is whether this happens right away or after some bounce; that’s something I will try my best to address below.”

For the past several months, I have consistently highlighted the 21500-21700 range as a crucial support level. This zone indeed offered notable support in early March. However, the index is currently retesting this critical area, and as long as the 21500 level holds on a spot basis, we may still witness temporary upward movements before a potential continuation of the downward trend. Regarding NIFTY BANK, its projected cycle date falls on April 9th, and I anticipate that it too will likely retest its March low. We shall observe the outcome.

Follow on update for APRIL 8th

“Yesterday’s low of the S&P 500 should be an important bottom for the near term. So, from here on, NIFTY would have to establish its trajectory independently. For short-term trading, it’s not going to be an easy market. However, the underlying trend continues to be ‘sell on rise.’ Therefore, stay short and operate at less than your normal volumes, and be prepared to add further short positions if the NIFTY spot rallies towards 22800. Tomorrow’s RBI policy is going to be very important for Nifty Bank because that’s a cycle date for that index. For NIFTY in the immediate term, 22200 would be a somewhat important support.”

Shockwaves in the Financial World: The Week the Market Buckled

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

Time unfolds in a compelling duality: the vast expanse of years that can pass with a deceptive tranquility, entire decades slipping by in a quiet hum of seemingly unbroken routine, where the currents of change flow so subtly as to be almost imperceptible, leaving behind a faint echo and a sense of continuity bordering on stagnation, like a slow, predictable river. Yet, sharply contrasting this are those extraordinary, compressed moments, intense and pivotal weeks – often unforeseen – where the very fabric of existence seems to warp and reconfigure itself. In these concentrated bursts, the accumulation of events, the confluence of forces, and the sheer weight of consequence create an accelerated history, with changes so rapid and their implications so far-reaching that they imprint themselves upon our understanding of the world and etch themselves into the collective memory with the profound significance and transformative power typically associated with the slow, gradual evolution of generations.”

“What a truly jarring week it was for U.S. markets! The unprecedented and frankly breathtaking decline of over 10% sent shockwaves through the financial world. This kind of sharp downturn is a genuinely rare event, marking only the third such instance since the tumultuous 2008 financial crisis. And for those who entered the markets in the optimistic period following the COVID crash of 2020, this sudden and significant drop represents their harsh introduction to a true bear market. The comfortable gains they may have become accustomed to have evaporated, and investors, particularly these newer ones, are likely facing a period of considerable anxiety and, yes, very, very painful losses in the coming months.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/02/15/decoding-market-dynamics-a-transformative-week-for-nifty-nifty-bank-and-the-sp-500/

“Looking back to mid-February now, it’s quite something to recall sharing a post outlining a potential cycle peak for the S&P 500 within the 6144 to 6219 level on the cash index. And with an almost eerie precision, the market obliged, topping out at 6147 on February 19th. Mark my words – that seemingly innocuous high of 6147 will, I believe, be etched into the memories of market participants for a very, very long time. It marked a significant turning point, a subtle yet crucial peak before the tides dramatically shifted.”

“Having anticipated a significant decline following that peak, I projected the index would drop towards the 5410 and 5119 levels. Remarkably, we did indeed reach these targets. While I initially expected this move to unfold over a slightly longer timeframe, the market witnessed a significant wave of liquidation, particularly after the tariffs announcement. Even without that specific news, I believe the market’s underlying technicals were pointing towards a downturn. However, this sharp and swift decline has injected extreme volatility into the overall technical setup. It’s crucial to remember that some of the most powerful rallies often occur within bear market conditions. Therefore, we should anticipate a sharp bounce in the coming days, which will likely be followed by a resumption of the downtrend.”

“Of course, these significant market shifts won’t materialize overnight; they will naturally take some time to fully play out. However, as professional traders, our approach to all trades from this juncture must be with slightly reduced volumes. These are indeed rare and highly volatile market conditions, and we need to exercise prudence to avoid aggressive positioning that could lead to regret later. As long as the CBOE VIX remains elevated above 25, we should not expect a return to market stability or ‘sanity.’ In these circumstances, even a single tactical error could potentially lead to a complete exit from the game. It’s crucial to recognize that this market environment is significantly different from the relatively calmer conditions we’ve become accustomed to over the past five years.”

“My near-term analysis suggests that the S&P 500 is likely to find a footing within the 4850 to 4950 support zone. Coupled with the important time cycle dates falling around April 9th, 14th, and 21st, these factors increase the probability of a significant short-term bounce. Savvy traders will be watching these levels and dates closely, potentially looking for opportunities to capitalize on this upward move. However, it’s absolutely crucial to approach this bounce with caution and a clear exit strategy. Given my broader expectation for levels below 4200 in the coming months, this rally should be viewed primarily as a counter-trend move. Therefore, any long positions taken during this bounce should be managed with tight stops, and traders should be prepared to reduce exposure or even consider establishing short positions as the rally begins to show signs of exhaustion. The key is to use this bounce strategically to position for the anticipated continuation of the downtrend, rather than getting caught up in what is likely to be a temporary reprieve.”

India’s Resilience Amidst Global Market Turbulence: A Closer Look

“Turning our attention to the Indian markets, the situation is notably less severe compared to the turbulence we’ve observed in the U.S. As of Friday’s close, the India VIX remained below 14. Remarkably, even despite Friday’s sell-off, the VIX barely registered a significant upward movement. Observing this level of complacency leading up to Thursday’s close, my view was that as long as Tuesday’s intraday low held, there was a reasonable possibility that the NIFTY could have retested the 23600 level before resuming its downward trajectory. However, the sharp sell-off in the S&P 500 on Thursday evening had a cascading effect. On Friday morning, the NIFTY broke decisively below its Tuesday intraday low of 23136, and that immediately negated any near-term upside potential I had been considering.”

“During the second half of March, I frequently provided updates on the NIFTY, and I’m sharing a couple of those updates below.”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/03/18/nifty-resistance-support-and-time-based-analysis/

“On March 18th, I shared a post with all my subscribers in which I highlighted three very important time cycle dates: March 24th, April 4th, and April 7th.”

“The fact that the NIFTY topped out on March 25th, just a day after my identified time cycle date of March 24th, underscores the accuracy and potential predictive power of these cyclical tools. It reinforces the idea that late March was a pivotal period for the Indian market. Now, we need to carefully analyze the market’s behavior around the April 4th time cycle, which we already know brought significant volatility, and the upcoming April 7th date. Will these dates also align with important market shifts, further validating the significance of these time cycles in our analysis?”

https://ganninsides.com/2025/03/21/nifty-short-term-gains-long-term-concerns/https://ganninsides.com/2025/03/21/nifty-short-term-gains-long-term-concerns/

“So, the NIFTY’s high on March 25th reached 23869. This is remarkably close to the 23800 level I highlighted in my post on March 21st as a potential upside target before a move lower. This near-perfect alignment significantly reinforces the validity of that particular analysis and the methodologies employed to identify that potential resistance zone. It suggests that the NIFTY did indeed test the upper end of the expected range before the bearish sentiment took hold, leading to the subsequent decline we’ve observed.”

“Looking at the immediate short term, the opening on Monday morning will be crucial. Setting aside futures considerations for now, critical support on the spot NIFTY lies within the 22300 to 22500 range. Should the index fail to hold this 22300 level, we should anticipate a new low for 2025, breaking below the March low of 21964. I held a strong conviction that 21964 was unlikely to be a significant bottom, a rationale I explained on March 13th. While many of my subscribers disagreed with this view at the time, the current price action lends credence to that perspective. If 22300 is breached, the NIFTY is likely to head towards the 21300 level on the spot index. Regarding the time aspect, following the April 7th cycle date, the next important time cycle dates to watch will be around April 15th and April 21st.”

“Therefore, while we watch for potential footing in the S&P 500 and critical support levels in the NIFTY alongside key time cycle dates, my overall analysis continues to point towards lower levels in the months ahead. Treat any short-term rallies as counter-trend moves, manage your risk meticulously, and use these opportunities to strategically position for the expected continuation of the downtrend. Thank you for considering my analysis.”

NIFTY: Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Concerns

“Following yesterday’s close above 23100, as previously analyzed for the NIFTY, the technical landscape has become moderately intricate. While the current movement remains a pullback, ultimately anticipated to drive lower lows beneath 21965, a short-term upward trajectory is possible, potentially reaching 23800. This advance could foster a perception of a renewed bull market; however, a subsequent retracement is still expected. Similarly, within the small-cap and mid-cap sectors, while near-term gains may materialize, a subsequent, substantial decline is projected.”

“The downside support for the NIFTY spot has shifted upwards to 23000. Going forward, monitor this support level closely. Monday should be an interesting day for both Indian and U.S. markets. Specifically, Monday’s intraday low will be critical. Let’s observe.”