Author: SAAHIL BELIM

MY NAME is SAAHIL and I have been actively trading in EQUITY MARKETS from 2014. I have been using Gann theory in my TRADING JOURNEY since 2016. my approach to Gann THEORY is totally different than what you may have seen or heard in various YOUTUBE VIDEOS. I have developed multiple MATHEMATICAL MODELS which are based on METHODS described by sir gann in his courses. I never had used any kind of CHARTS to identify the TREND. hens I never share CHARTS to illustrate my view. I like to keep things SHORT and to the POINt!

RELIANCE’s Downturn and the Road to Recovery: Key Support Levels to Watch

“As we analyzed on August 20th, a print of 1442 on cash was needed to confirm a strong breakout in RELIANCE.  The  stock  was  rejected  from  the  1431  level,  creating  a  new  low  below  its  early  August  low.

The  next  critical  support  is  now  the  1280  to  1320  zone  on  cash,  from  which  a  powerful  rally  can  unfold.   Today is a key cycle date, and a sustained move above today’s intraday high would signal a return to stability. Monitor this closely, because RELIANCE’s trajectory is crucial for NIFTY’s overall direction.”

Market at a Crossroads: Tariffs Are Not the Problem

It’s  an  interesting  time  in  the  market,  but  we  maintain  that  the  current  decline  is  not  driven  by  the  recent  tariff  news.    We  typically  don’t  see  the  market  fall  twice  on  the  same  catalyst,  and  the  50%  tariff  news  has  been  known  since  early  August.   This information should already be fully digested.  The  real  reason  for  the  downturn  is  the  persistent  weakness  in  banking  stocks.

Regarding  the  tariff  issue,  we  believe  these  tariffs  will  be  rolled  back  by  President  Trump  sometime  in  September.   It is highly unlikely that these 50% rates will be sustained for a significantly long period of time.

Near-Term Consolidation, Long-Term Bullish View Intact

As I updated on Tuesday, the near-term setup has shifted from extremely bullish to a more cautious stance. We now anticipate a period of consolidation, but a reversal is due sooner rather than later.  In  a  normal  scenario,  we  do  not  expect  NIFTY  to  break  below  its  August  8th  low  of  24337  on  a  spot  basis.    Our  long-term  view  remains  a  fresh  record  high  above  26277  until  October  16th,  which  leaves  plenty  of  time  for  this  target  to  be  achieved.

If, for any reason, the August 8th low of 24337 is broken, we would expect a quick downside extension. However, even this dip would present a strong buying opportunity. When analyzing markets, the relationship between price and time is paramount. This is a core tenet of our analysis.

For  instance,  the  rally  from  24337  to  25153  took  exactly  12  calendar  days  (including  one  trading  holiday).   This duration is a key factor.

If  the  low  of  24337  breaks  before  September  3rd  (the  12th  calendar  day  from  the  August  21st  high),  it  would  be  a  bearish  signal.

However, if the low breaks after September 3rd, it would be a bullish confirmation, and in that scenario, we would aggressively buy all dips for a December expiry.

Watch for a Major Time Cycle

Finally,  a  critical  data  point:  On  August  29th,  NIFTY  is  scheduled  to  complete  a  144-day  cycle  from  its  April  7th  low.   This is a significant development on the time-cycle front that we will be watching closely.

“To  wrap  up,  the  crucial  test  for  this  market  will  be  how  it  reacts  around  the  August  8th  low  and  the  coming  time  cycle  dates.    We  maintain  our  long-term  targets,  and  look  for  a  strong  buying  opportunity  on  any  further  dips.”

INDIANBANK: September’s Cycle and the Road Ahead

INDIANBANK  is  in  a  medium-term  uptrend.    In  the  short  term,  it  has  strong  support  between  ₹640  and  ₹660,  making  any  dip  into  this  zone  an  ideal  entry  opportunity.    The  stock  is  currently  in  a  sideways  trend,  and  a  near-term  rally  to  ₹703  and  ₹733  will  only  happen  if  it  breaks  above  ₹685.”

Looking  at  our  time  cycle  analysis,  September  is  a  crucial  month.    It  marks  the  completion  of  a  major  cycle  rotation  on  the  monthly  charts  from  the  June  2024  high.”

The Waiting Game: Why Patience Is Key for SBI Investors

At times, as an analyst, you feel that enough is enough. And when we look at SBI, we experience that same feeling. Despite multiple attempts, we never got any sort of trade here. The trigger points which we discussed never broke on either side. But we will keep trying, and hopefully this time it should go through. As we speak, the setup is bullish here, but we would still prefer to wait until the stock takes out 856 on the upside. Once that’s done, we would then anticipate a rally toward 897 and 928 on a cash basis on the upside, and maybe even more than that. But for now, we would restrict ourselves until then. On the time cycle front, as long as the stock sustains above the August 11th intraday high, the setup is bullish, and it’s just a matter of time before 856 is taken out on the upside.