As discussed, a failure to follow through on the upside is not a bullish sign. It reflects a lack of price confirmation and underlying strength. That’s exactly what played out, so there are no surprises there. Post yesterday’s surge, Nifty went on to make a fresh low.
Yesterday was also critical from a time-cycle perspective. Nifty hit the precise midpoint of the time-circle arc constructed from the January and March monthly highs. Because of this, yesterday’s high becomes extremely important—both on the parameters of price and time.
Going forward, on the price front, 22044 (spot) remains the key arc support. Technically, that level is still valid. However, I would avoid taking overnight positions—especially with a 3-day weekend and the current geopolitical backdrop. Three days is a long time in this kind of environment.
Also, looking at recent market behavior, there is a clear pattern in place:
Lows tend to get breached on Mondays
Weekly highs are typically printed on Wednesdays
As long as this structure continues, the textbook approach would be to buy weakness on Monday morning.
At the same time, a more convincing long trade only triggers above yesterday’s intraday high of 22941. Until that level is taken out, downside risk continues to persist. Despite that, I am not very interested in shorting this market aggressively—at least until certain time windows begin to play out.
From a time-cycle perspective, next week is extremely important. As already mentioned, a lot can happen, so it’s important to stay prepared.
A better approach here would be to step back, enjoy the long weekend, and reassess once the market opens on Monday.
If Nifty (spot) breaks below 22044, the next supports come in at:
April 2025 lows
June 2024 lows
If these levels come into play next week, it would mean price and time are squaring, which will be important to watch.
With the current VIX above 25, a 500-point intraday move has become fairly normal. These are exciting conditions for traders—but only if risk management is in place.
Because if risk management is missing, then the entire trade is based on hope. And hope and profits simply do not go together. You cannot put money into the market and expect outcomes—that’s not a strategy.
Looking at the broader market context:
The S&P 500 is comparatively holding up better and behaving more constructively. This divergence is something to keep an eye on.
In Brent Crude Oil, we continue to hold short positions, but with strict risk control in place.
Interesting weekend ahead. Let’s see how the market sets up on Monday.
gann,insides 