VIOLENT MARKETS DEMAND CLEAR THINKING

Markets don’t ring a bell before they turn violent — and when they do, clarity becomes more important than conviction.

As discussed yesterday, the setup on Nifty had turned clearly bearish. Once the January 12th intraday low of 25473 was broken, the market witnessed an accelerated decline, with spot Nifty extending the fall towards 24919 today. This sharp move confirmed that weakness was no longer gradual, but momentum-driven.

Post the test of 24919, the recovery has been notable and technically encouraging. But this bounce by itself is not enough to qualify as a genuine reversal. Real trend changes usually leave behind a series of structural footprints — and those take time to form. Until those price parameters appear, this move should be treated as a reaction, not a reversal.

On Sunday, we had projected 25200 as an initial downside objective, which was achieved almost immediately. The fact that price didn’t stop there and extended even lower only tells us one thing clearly — bearish pressure is still active in the system.

On the time-cycle front, this coming Friday and next Tuesday stand out as critical windows. These phases often coincide with shifts in behaviour, volatility expansion, and the formation of meaningful swing points. How price behaves around these dates will matter far more than opinions.

There is also a hard trading truth many learn only through experience: there is a difference between going short and carrying shorts. In the current market, sharp declines are being followed by equally sharp counter-moves. As pointed out yesterday, taking short trades may be justified — but holding and carrying shorts is not going to be an easy job. This environment will reward execution and risk management, not stubbornness.

This is not a market for hero trades. This is a market for survival trades.
Stay nimble. Stay practical. And don’t get carried away by volatility.