MARKET UPDATE

Price, Time & Structure — A Market Update
NIFTY — Levels That Decide Direction
Nifty continues to struggle for clear direction, much like it has over the last several sessions. Two critical
spot levels remain in focus — 25650 on the downside and 26040 on the upside. The index moved
into the 26040 zone on Friday and again recently, but the lack of follow-through has taken the
immediate breakout scenario off the table for now.
Unless the index can sustain above 26040 consistently, the setup is likely to remain sceptical and
directionless. To generate a directional move, Nifty will need either a sustained acceptance above
26040 or a decisive break below 25650 on the downside.
On the macro front, this week’s Bank of Japan meeting is extremely important for global markets. Any
adverse reaction is likely to be short-lived and is unlikely to alter the medium-term uptrend in Indian as
well as U.S. markets.
USD/JPY — The Silent Risk Monitor
USD/JPY deserves close attention. A sustained move below 150 is typically where leverage begins to
feel uncomfortable and margin pressure starts surfacing quietly in the background.
A break below 145 is more serious. That zone often marks the point where positions stop being
discretionary and start becoming forced, allowing liquidation pressure to feed on itself.
December 19, 2025 stands out as an important time window — not because something must occur on
that day, but because conditions around that period could allow long-standing leverage structures to
begin unwinding.
Stay aware. Respect levels. Position accordingly.