could LUNAR ECLIPS spark a MINSKY moment in FINANCIAL MARKETS

Gann INSIDES weekly MARKET UPDATE

“SUMMARY”

the week gone by was a normal week for INDIAN MARKETS where NIFTY and BROADER MARKET cooled off their highly oversold technical reedings post recovery from Wednesday’s LOWS! but for U-S-MARKETS it was yet another week of fresh record highs which marginally accelerated the rally post FOMC meat!

this week our focus would be on global MARKETS specificlly on U-S-MARKETS and other risk assets like BITCOIN and GOLD.

next week we have LUNAR ECLIPS on MONDAY which is a key development for all FINANCIAL ASSETS let’s discuss on that below.

the (LUNAR,ECLIPS) this MONDAY could gradually Phlip the narrative from extremely optimistic to extremely pessimistic. but that would take TIME for atleast some days.
ECLIPSES are always very strong COSMIC EVENTS which brings notable changes on MARKET trends.
unfortunately many analysts over the years have failed to acknowledge the role of an ECLIPS on overall MARKET analysis.
people have always looked for an instant reaction to conclude the impact of an ECLIPS but in reality it takes around 2 to 3 weeks of TIME before we see that VIBRATIONAL impact to reflect on PRICES!

as human beings we always lack that patience to wait until complete impact of an ECLIPS is reached.
if you go and check any ECLIPS post 3 weeks we always would get a MARKET REVERSAL not only on PRICE but also on sentiments and narratives as well!

No need to go much far just go and check what happenned post SOLAR and LUNAAR ECLIPSES of OCTOBER 2023

always remember these ECLIPSES historiclly have always occurred before significant trend shifts.

prepare for one such trend shift in next few weeks which would have its IMPACT till SEPTEMBER of 2024!

“UPDATE on NIFTY”

Nifty Setup is very much simple! On thursday I shared level off 22,150 as an ideal rebound level in a normal sinario! and on FRIDAY MARKET easily achieved that! things should get really intresting from tuesday if NIFTY have ended its recovery at fridays high then next week it should break level of 21,840 on downside once that break short term PATTERNS would trigger fresh breakdown for target objectives of 21,625 and 21,400 on spot!

Note 21,600 is a channel support on weekly charts! Once that breaks on a weekly closing basis then this entire advance from OCTOBER 2023 lows would officially come to an end how much low it can go post that conformation is something we shall discuss some other day! As traders we shall approach things one step at a TIME!

“KEY LEVELS to watch on S&P;500 “

S&P throughout last few days successfully defended the level of 5050 which we were discussing as a final support a break of that would certainly signal the end of this entire advance which started from OCTOBER 2023! need to have patience until that breaks!

On MONTHLY charts S&P have entered in a very strong GANN ANGLE resistance zone currently these monthly ANGLES are placed in zone of 5250-5350 if INDEX stays under 5350 going forward and breaks the intraday low of 18th,MARCH on a closing basis then that would signal a TIME CYCLE REVERSAL because 18th,MARCH was a “PRICE TIME SQUARING DATE” for S&P we discussed on this in past week as well!

On TIME front next week 27th and 28th MARCH are going to be very important ANNUAL CYCLE dates for not only S&P but for all U-S-INDICES!so expect some sharp moves on these dates!

until one of the above criterias are met INDEX can continue with it’s current consolidation at highs!

“BITCOIN”

Over the last few years, digital currencies and , gold, have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites! Of course, it is not just a speculative frenzy in the markets for stocks, specifically anything related to “artificial intelligence,” but that exuberance has spilled over into gold and cryptocurrencies!

Technically BITCOIN have an important support at 60,000$ on downside once that breaks we could get BITCOIN below 45000 in next few weeks! if 60,000 breaks then MARCH 14th high could hold for next couple of years! do watch out very closely!

Unfortunately, for individuals once again piling into Bitcoin to chase rising prices, if, or when, the market corrects, the decline in cryptocurrencies will likely substantially outpace the decline in market-based equities. This is particularly the case as Wall Street can now short the spot-Bitcoin ETFs, creating additional selling pressure on Bitcoin.

“GOLD”

Gold was supposed to be an inflation hedge. Yet, in 2022, gold prices fell as the market declined and inflation surged to 9%. However, as inflation has fallen and the stock market surged, so has gold. now when STOCK MARKETS are expected to turn lower would GOLD be able to continue with its BULLISH momentum?

Technically 2225 high is a good enough resistance which shall hold but as long as COMEX GOLD holds 2100 on downside things are likely to stay fine for now! Once 2100 breaks we could get GOLD towards 2030 and 1960 in next few days! TIME wise 2nd half of APRIL is going to be very critical!

would leave it here for now wishing all reeders a colorful festival greetings from me and my team.

GANN INSIDES WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE

not much to add In addition to what I shared in last week!

first do checkout what I discussed in last weeks weekly UPDATE!

https://ganninsides.com/2024/03/09/weekly-market-update-2/

PREVIEW

last week I discussed on growing unsustainable divergence between smallcaps and the (NIFTY)! I also discussed on 7 most critical STOCKS for INDIAN STOCK MARKET!

this week as expected that divergence for NIFTY resolved on downside! and out of TOP magnificent 7 STOCKS accept ICICI;BANK,HDFC;BANK and INFY other 4 STOCKS have registered a notable PATTERN breakdown which would have significantly BEARISH implications going forward!

TECHNICAL UPDATE

NIFTY

TOP is in for NIFTY as we have been discussing since last 2 weeks now! this end under 22,600 would have lot of significance in DAYS-WEEKS and MONTHS ahead!

on NIFTY 21,800 is a key support once that breaks a sharp decline towards 21,610 and 21,390 could be tested! broadly below 21,800 INDEX would prepare itself to break JANUARY LOW of 21,137! Once that LOW of 21,137 breaks NIFTY would trigger a all-PATTERN-breakdown which would have severe MEDIUM TERM implications!

S&P;500

S&P is likely to SQUARE out its PRICE with TIME tomorrow on 18th,MARCH! since INDEX have struggled to take out 5,185 the level which I have been discussing since last 2 weeks it’s only a matter of TIME before a significant PRICE REVERSAL triggers! we are very close once 5050 breaks it’s all over! expect that to break very very soon!

this would be a textbook PRICE TIME SQUARE REVERSAL which once confirms would end this RALLY from OCTOBER 2023 LOW we really should not look too far but if this actually plays out according to BOOKS then that OCTOBER 2023 LOW of 4103 is likely to break going forward! would approach that step by step! for now working targets are 4955 and 4840 on downside!

lot off things can go wrong for MARKETS in coming days! stay cautious!

GANN INSIDES WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE

SUMMARY

NIFTY had a good week but the main highlight in the week gone by was the notable weekness in smallcap and midcap INDICES! this week the divergence between LARGECAPS and SMALLCAPS have reached to an extreme! this is not sustainable during the course of next few days someone would have to reverse it’s current direction! today we would take clues from MAGNIFICENT 7 INDIAN STOCKS and the setup in U-S-INDICES to understand that who would potentially REVERSE it’s current direction!

so let’s start with MAGNIFICENT 7 INDIAN STOCKS in alphabetical order!

1. (AXIS BANK LIMITED)

AXISBANK is the most important STOCK for NIFTY BANK if STOCK makes a fresh high above 1151 then NIFTY BANK too would go on and register a fresh record high! few days back I wrote on this STOCK where I mentioned 1050 as a very important support! STOCK some how managed to hold that support and then recovered!
going forward 11th and 12th,MARCH would be the most important CYCLE DATES for rest of the month.
NOT only for AXIS 11th and 12th would be important CYCLE DATES for NIFTY BANK as well!

2. (ICICI BANK LIMITED)

ICICI BANK has been an only reason why NIFTY BANK have out performed in past few days! STOCK has only picked up in last 6 to 8 days post some corporate development! Technically it’s likely to stay BULLISH as long as it stays above 1036 on closing basis! frankly holding that it can test 1146 on upside historically for ICICI BANK major moves up or down has always occurred post breach of its HARMONIC PATTERN LEVELS currently 1036 is such a LEVEL on PRICE front! there is one more very important development which is about to take place in next week which is on TIME front! On 11th and 12th,MARCH (ICICI BANK) would square out its PRICE with TIME from its 2023 LOW! so this is going to be extremely important!

3. (INFY LIMITED)

INFY has been an ideal STOCK for trend followers! when entire MARKET has been in 2,minds on its velocity of underline direction INFY never disappoints to present an ideal trading apportunity! but besides TRADES if we analyse its decline from FEBRUARY high of 1733 then it doesn’t look convincing! atleast a higher high would be required to complete the structure! if for any reason STOCK gives a daily close below 1550 then all bets are off! On TIME front 15th and 18th,MARCH are minor CYCLE dates and 26th,MARCH would be an ANNUAL CYCLE DATE here!

4. (Hdfc bank limited)

HDFC BANK is the weekest LARGE CAP STOCK in entire MARKET! let’s be very clear with this it has given a breakdown on monthly charts! so whatever it does on day to day basis is unlikely to change that fact! still MARKETS without much contribution from HDFC BANK have managed to register fresh highs! obviously the intensity of PRICE expansion have reduced since 16th,JANUARY high but still MARKETS have stayed at higher levels! for HDFC BANK my medium term target objective is at 1270 on cash! which could take some TIME! for short term 1471 is a key resistance on upside as long as STOCK sustains below it on closing basis the recent rebounde would be categorized as a normal pullback! TIME wise 15th,MARCH would be a minor CYCLE DATE here!

5. (RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LIMITED)

RELIANCE has been a leader of this major rally on NIFTY since OCTOBER LOWS!
few days back I shared level of 2900 here as a very critical support! going forward that continues to be an ultimate support! Infact to be very precise 2887 on closing basis is that level which once breaks would indicate a substantial breakdown which would open up primary target of 2650 on cash! TIME wise 15th MARCH would be an ANNUAL CYCLE DATE!as long as mentioned supports are held further higher highs are still possible! if people recall my 14th,FEBRUARY post I have shared upside zone of 3040-3100 as a projection for a final TOP! as of now that zone has not been challenged! would be intresting to see how it trades next week!

6. (STATE BANK OF INDIA)

SBI has been another STOCK which has done extremely well since its LOWS registered in JANUARY! it has taken an extra-ordinary rally in SBI to cover up the damage which HDFCBANK have done to NIFTY BANK! Over past few weeks we have seen weightage of SBI and ICICI BANK move higher and HDFC BANK weightage has moved lower just to manage NIFTY BANK! all these efforts have made to keep INDEX where it is today! anyways let’s get back to SBI few days back I thought that SBI have registered it’s high at 777 but in next 2 days MARKETS proved my view incorrect! since then it has kept moving higher! on upside PRICE-TIME-EQUALITY LEVEL is at 810 so that is going to be an important level to watch on upside for next few days! on downside support continues to stay at 739 but on closing basis! TIME wise 22nd,MARCH is its nearest ANNUAL CYCLE DATE!

7. (TATA MOTORS LIMITED)

TATA motors along with entire AUTO INDEX has been in a clean uptrend since MARCH 2022! in past few weeks many analysts have been trying to predict the TOP for AUTO STOCKS but these STOCKS continues to trend higher! TATA MOTORS specifically have out performed the MARKET at an unprecedented scale! this is not sustainable! sooner or later AUTO as a sector would go under a period of correction and during that correction TATA MOTORS would give excellent trading apportunities on short side! but for now trend is higher and it’s likely to stay this way as long as STOCK stays above 987 on closing basis! TIME wise 26th 27th and 28th,MARCH would be key turn dates in near term!

TECHNICAL UPDATE ON NIFTY!

as I discussed on thursdays EOD POST once NIFTY breaks above 22,565 then only supports would shift higher to 22,300! HARMONIC PATTERN support for NIFTYY which is more significant is at 22,220! last week we discussed level of 22,100 as a major weekly support on NIFTY SPOT this week that support have moved higher to 22,300 on closing basis! as long as these supports are held MARKETS can continue their move higher! although the move could be slow but still it could continue higher! I personally have serious doubts how far INDEX can rally beyond the level of 22,600 but that’s my personal view and this platform has been created to put up technical facts not my own personal views! As an ANALYST and a TRADER I would refer the PATTERNS of GANN THEORY here and as of Thursdays close none of that PATTERN has broken! On TIME front 15th,MARCH is going to be an important TIME CYCLE DATE!

NOW let’s discuss on U-S-MARKETS!

In U-S-MARKET NVIDIA is currently the EPICENTRE off this BUBBLE but there are well known ANALYSTS in WALL STREET who doesn’t agree with that opinion! On FRIDAY we understood that NVIDIA can go down as well! but people have been thinking this as a healthy pullback! according to them this time history is not going to repeat itself! they argue that this TIME is different “Current arguments as to why this time is different are cloaked in the economics of secular stagnation and standard finance workhorses like the equity risk premium model. Whilst these may lend a veneer of respectability to those dangerous words, taking arguments at face value without considering the evidence seems to me, at least, to be a common link with previous bubbles! “The bulls explain that traditional valuation metrics no longer apply to certain stocks. The longs are confident that everyone else who holds these stocks understands the dynamic and won’t sell either. With holders reluctant to sell, the stocks can only go up – seemingly to infinity and beyond. We have seen this before! There was no catalyst that we know of that burst the dot-com bubble in March 2000, and we don’t have a particular catalyst in mind here. That said, the top will be the top, and believe it or not we are getting closer to that TOP!

TECHNICAL UPDATE ON U-S-INDICES!

S&P;500

as we discussed in last weeks post INDICES are extremely close to a TOP on S&P I gave a level of 5185 as a PRICE-TIME-SQUARING LEVEL the manner in which INDEX tested 5,185 and reversed down was absolutely comprihensive and this does signal a type of REVERSAL which we have been looking for since several days now!

still if my view is correct INDEX will have to break 5050 during next week! A break of 5050 would trigger a PATTERN breakdown for downside target objective of 4955 and 4840 on cash! On TIME front 18th,MARCH is a PRICE-TIME-SQUARING DATE for S&P IF till 18th,MARCH INDEX manages to stay under 5185 then it should make a hard turn lower towards 4840 in next few days!

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

NASDAQ;COMPOSITE too reversed on FRIDAY with unusually large VOLUMES! a near 400 point cut from INTRADAY high is certainly significant! Last week I discussed level of 16,500 with my subscribers INDEX went very close to that but failed to print that! going forward 15,850 on closing basis is going to be an important support a daily close below that should drag INDEX towards its downside supports of 15450 and 15150! A break of 15150 would make a case for a test of 14,400 for sure! but from here we would have to approach with one level at a TIME! let the MARKET conform our view!

DOLLAR INDEX

DOLLAR to is at a turning point! it just needs some kind of a trigger else technically it’s still in a good shape! the CPI or the PPI PRINT next week should provide that trigger! lets see!

let’s end it here for now thanks always for reeding! wish everyone of you a wonderful week ahead! see you guys next week!

Protected: GANN INSIDES WEEKLY MARKETS OVERVIEW

MARKETS WEEKLY PREVIEW

SIDEWAYS WEEK FOR INDIAN MARKETS.

NIFTY had a dull week where accept TUESDAY and THURSDAY no major volatility was seen.
Although new highs were made which we did discussed on last SUNDAY,
but the lackluster PRICE ACTION at highs with absolutely no MOMENTUM actually leaves less scope for PRICE EXPANSION on upside.
Still we have been working with a target of 22,325,
but for some reasons INDEX has so far failed to achieve that target.
let’s see next week.

I have described this entire upmove as a TRAP and so far the overall PRICE ACTION have completely confirmed that.
here we all need to understand the objective of a TRAP! we cannot have a TRAP for a tiny higher high above a prior high.
we so far have not even got a 1% move on upside above the previous high of 22,126.
so all said and done as long as NIFTY spot stays above 21,800-22,000 higher highs are more likely.

MARKET MOVING WEEK ON TIME FRONT

TIME wise NEXT WEEK NIFTY would enter in its 49th week from MARCH 2023 LOW,
this is an important TIME development since this is happening on WEEKLY T/F.
DURING the WEEK dates of 26th 28th and 29th could generate peak VIBRATIONS.
26th specificlly because that’s an ANNUAL CYCLE DATE.
From 1st week of MARCH the overall intensity of MARKETS would reach at totally at a different level because on monthly T/F in MARCH all global INDICES would aline more then 4 CYCLES from various LOWS.
WOULD discuss this in greater detail in next weekly post.

U-S-INDICES reached fresh highs post Q4 print from NVIDIA.

Despite one selloff after another leading to increased volatility, the markets are currently hitting all-time highs as the speculative chase for return heats up.
“I am not a fan of Soros, but this market has the look and feel of the dot com bust of 2000. In a few short words, the AI investment phenomenon is feeding on itself just as the internet and fiber did in 1999.
If you have been following me since OCTOBEr,
I layed down a small possiblity of NASDAQ going for a BUBBLE.
I also said this at that TIME as well that it’s easy to refer MARKET BUBBLES after they are BURSTED but very tough to call them in real time.
In DECEMBER when NASDAQ broke above JULY high the possiblity of a MARKET BUBBLE actually confirmed.

I dont want to repeat all those things which various X accounts are putting up on daily basis.
INDICES are more concentrated on handful of tech and AI STOCKS everyone knows that,
that’s an easy thing to do!!
let’s do something which is not easy!

TECHNICAL UPDATE

In my previous weekly UPDATE I shared the date of 20th FEBRUARY as an important CYCLE DATE.

I also posted very clearly that to hint a TOP INDICES have to close below the INTRADAY LOW of 20th,FEBRUARY.
MARKETS fell on 20th but failed to close below that days LOW.
GOING FORWARD the faith of this AI MARKET rally lies entirely on 20th FEB LOW.
Only a daily close below 20th FEB LOW would confirm a TOP of this MARKET at much higher degree of trend.
If you prefer to follow the trend then have patience until this happens.

On PRICE front PRICE-TIME-EQUALITY LEVELS for S&P and NASDAQ are placed at 5010 and 15,600 respectively.
As long as these levels are held higher highs are likely.
On TIME FRONT next week would be 50th week from 2023 lows.
So volatility should further pick up,
specificlly DATES of 26th 28th and 1st MARCH would be critical CYCLE DATES during the week.

so all in all an intresting week coming up.
see you guys next week with a weekly preview.
thanks for reeding and BEST WISHES for the week ahead.

Protected: MARKETS WEEKLY PREVIEW