Market Analysis: Riding the Bullish Wave in PSU Banks

The sheer momentum behind the Public Sector Banks (PSBs) sector is simply phenomenal. The market theme, which was correctly identified as far back as Late August and Mid-September, has translated into an exceptional, high-powered rally. The specific leaders, State Bank of India (SBI) and Indian Bank, have been incredible performers, having already blown past targets and establishing themselves as the absolute frontrunners.
This isn’t just a typical move; the rally is sustained by powerful tailwinds and a compelling structural shift within the sector. The technical charts are simply confirming that the underlying strength is preparing the ground for the next big leg higher, suggesting this explosive story is far from reaching its climax.
The current technical pictures for both stocks are exceptionally compelling:
State Bank of India (SBI): The target of 1000 for SBI is not just a projection—it feels like an inevitable point of magnetic attraction pulling the price higher. Trading in this wide-open, uncharted territory, the stock’s significant volume and sustained breakout power strongly suggest that the psychological 1000 mark will be the next major staging post before the dominant trend continues its powerful upward expansion.
Indian Bank (INDBANK): This one is demonstrating a remarkably aggressive technical setup that signals quick, powerful returns. The expectation for a decisive push toward 900 in the coming weeks is entirely plausible given the stock’s current trajectory. It’s displaying the classic breakout behavior of a strong bull market leader, using its current levels as a high-potential launchpad for a major surge.
In short, the technical landscape for these two banks remains overwhelmingly positive. The best-in-class price performance from these PSB leaders looks set to continue rewarding those who understood the sector’s turning point early.

The move in RELIANCE is the single most crucial factor for driving the Nifty to a new all-time high above 26277, making the upcoming results and price action paramount. The key requirement for a significant market-driving breakout rests solely on RIL clearing the critical technical zone between ₹1410 and ₹1420 on a cash basis. A decisive move past this resistance would trigger a powerful bullish breakout, immediately paving the way for potential upside targets of ₹1470 and then ₹1540 in the following sessions. With the company’s Q2 results due post-market tomorrow, the entire market’s focus will be on the outcome and the stock’s subsequent reaction, as a strong performance and breakout would easily facilitate the Nifty’s journey to fresh historical highs in the near future.

The upcoming INFY results, due post-market today, mark the critical event that will determine the next market move, and the strategy to hold fire on longs until this volatility passes is highly judicious. Despite a clear underlying bullish bias, the lack of interest in taking a position before the outcome is sensible event-risk management. The entire long thesis is clearly hinged on a decisive cash close above the key ₹1525 resistance level. Should the expected positive results reaction materialize and force a breakout above ₹1525, it would trigger the entry signal, immediately opening up sharp upside targets of ₹1574 and subsequently ₹1623 in the following sessions. In essence, the game plan is clear: await the results, then only proceed to enter long if the stock confirms the positive news by clearing the ₹1525 technical hurdle.

The technical picture for TATAPOWER is signaling that a major high-conviction breakout is in the making, but the entire move is conditional on one critical price point: ₹410. This level is the final resistance barrier, and a sustained, decisive break above it will serve as the unequivocal confirmation signal for traders. The underlying strength is significant, with weekly cycles “significantly trending bullish,” providing strong foundational momentum for the rally. Once the ₹410 trigger is pulled, the immediate cash segment targets become ₹430, with the next key target set at ₹460 in the near to medium term. The strategy here is straightforward: watch the ₹410 level like a hawk, and be prepared to buy and hold to ride the expected acceleration to the upside.

TCS appears poised for a significant turning point, signaling that the medium-term corrective phase is concluding. Technical analysis points to ₹ 2866 as the anticipated durable bottom—a critical low from which any further dip is expected to be minimal, confirming the stock is reaching a climax reversal point. A bullish perspective suggests initiating a conservative long position, especially as the Quarterly Results on October 9th approach. The decisive trigger for a strong breakout will be a successful breach of the ₹ 2975 cash level, which opens the path to sequential targets at ₹ 3055 and ₹ 3125. The prudent strategy is to observe the initial reaction post-results, then look to accumulate further long positions, confident that the imminent reversal will take hold regardless of the near-term volatility.

The rally in AXISBANK is exceptionally robust, validating the original conviction from the ₹1077 level. The current price action confirms that the uptrend is mature but far from over.
The ₹1180–₹1200 zone is a minor area of profit booking and price digestion—a necessary pause to reset indicators and gather buyer interest. This consolidation is a sign of health, not weakness.
Clearing this level will serve as the next major technical trigger, unlocking the door for immediate targets at ₹1235 and the follow-through move to ₹1285. The focus should be on anticipating this final push through the resistance band.

RBL Bank has demonstrably forged a durable bottom at its recent swing low of 243. As long as that level is fiercely defended, the measured move target on the upside is an unyielding 306. Reaching this milestone will trigger a momentous breakout on its yearly charts, unleashing a massive, sustained rally for the medium term.
For the short term, the zone from 256 to 266 is an ironclad support band. Holding this fortress will allow the stock to easily obliterate its recent swing high of 279. Once that resistance is crushed, it will immediately surge toward 294 and 306.
On the time-cycle front, September 29th will be a pivotal and critical date.

Since late August, I have been bullish on Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banks. The entire weakness in NIFTYBANK was sponsored by the weakness in private sector banks, while PSU banks were still doing relatively better. Hence, I suggested a couple of stocks from this basket to subscribers during the third week of August. These trades were on Indian Bank and SBI. Let’s revisit them below.

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/25/indianbank-septembers-cycle-and-the-road-ahead/

Let’s start with Indian Bank. I identified a significant support zone, which was in the 640 to 660 range on the cash market. The stock tested the 660 mark and bounced sharply from there, clearing the 685 level on the upside and achieving our primary target of 703 on cash. The stock continues to stay significantly bullish, and it should only be a matter of time before our second target of 733 is achieved.

https://ganninsides.com/2025/08/20/the-waiting-game-why-patience-is-key-for-sbi-investors/

SBI has been the most boring stock in the entire NIFTY basket. It has been testing our patience for the past few months, because we knew that this sort of consolidation would produce a significant and powerful move on either side. We continued to believe it would generate that move on the upside, and we have been watching it patiently. Thankfully, that patience paid off yesterday when the stock moved above 856 on cash. As discussed above, the immediate targets are 897 and 928 on cash in the near term, but we would eventually be thinking of 1000 here within the next few days. Let’s see.