TVS;MOTORS is going through the process of SQUARING out its TOP. Setup is week here. As long as it stays under 1,050-1,080 it’s in weakest possible position. Matter of TIME, THE low of 9,86 ,Should break and prices should print 945 in coming days. Once it breaks 9,30-9,45 we may see much deeper correction here. Already initial signs for that are visible, let’s see how this shapes up!
TATA CHEMICALS view
TATA;CHEMICALS is breaking down below key levels. Accept CIRCLE breakdown All patterns have given BEARISH cross over. CIRCLE too would give that final breakdown below 9,60-9,80 zone on cash. Till then it’s a sell on rise setup, For Targets of 930 which would complete a CHANNEL, AND a daily close below 9,60 would trigger a CIRCLE breakdown which shall signal Target of 8,70. Watch out.
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY is testing patience but the weakness continues to persist. So this consolidation is unlikely to result in further highs. As I have been highlighting that: (NIFTY is week because it has broken PATTERN support of 18,480 on Last Friday).
But MARKET is holding on, PRICES are not breaking down. Reason is NIFTY BANK which we have been discussing from MONDAY. MOMENTUM would pick up once when NIFTY BANK begins to Participate on downside.
Multiple BANKING stocks which are part of NIFTY BANK are completing their PATTERNS. Specially PVT BANKS accept HDFC BANK have already Turned lower. In PSU BANKS SBI is in its final stages of completing this deceptive rally.
So it’s only the matter of some more TIME from here. Official conformations would come only if it closes below the low of 9th,DECEMBER. As long as that does not happen continue to control taking trades on BANKING stocks.
On NIFTY we are short, just had to hedge those trades due to EVENTS. Need to keep that extra time if you prefer buying OPTIONS. Rest it depends on MARKETS, how much more TIME it needs to come lower!
NASDAQ OUTLOOK
NASDAQ;COMPOSITE have a tricky structure, before line of events which would take place in next 2,days. The high of 11,546 is slightly below a PATTERN level. Although NASDAQ is the weakest U.S. INDEX it holds greater relevance, for next leg lower.
For very short term there is a bullish possiblity here, only if it holds 10,780. If it holds 10.780 then it would attempt the final high for this rally which could be above 11,771 which also would complete the HARMONIC CHANNEL, and once this is done, MARKET would then resume its decline.
But if it breaks 10,780 then all BULLISH probabilities would vanish. Then it would break OCTOBER lows, without taking much TIME. MY medium term projections here are: 8700-9100 within MARCH 2023. Well this is that typical market which is taking accessive TIME to move. The END outcome is clear, that 9,100 is certain. But only point is, whether this rally has ended or there is 1 last push higher pending on upside, before things roles down!
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY still lag that support from NIFTY BANK. MARKETS are again painting simillar picture, of holding the low of (TIME SQUARING) DATE on closing basis, and trade sideways. Just consuming more TIME. Let’s see how long this continues.
NIFTY is week but NIFTY BANK is not. Highlighted this yesterday as well. Critical events due in next 2 days, better to hedge trades using weekly CALLS, and let markets navigate these events.
The INTER-MARKET diversion between NIFTY and NIFTY BANK cannot last beyond a certain point. Some one have to give up. Let’s see how things goes. Better to protect trades and watch things play out.
MARKET UPDATE
NIFTY has given a VIBRATION PATTERN breakdown below 18,480 on Friday. So we have that primary indication for things finally Turning down. BUT we still require participation from NIFTY BANK, because NIFTY is clear With its week structure, but NIFTY BANK is yet to conformed things. 42,900 remains critical level as we discussed earlier. But before that it has to give a daily close below 43,361 which stands the low of (TIME SQUARING) DATE.
Same goes for NIFTY a daily close below 18,410 would add more weakness to current setup. Since we are anticipating major turn lower so we do require these step by step conformations. So far what we have can only take us to 18,200 but as we progress this level should move lower!
RELIANCE UPDATE
RELIANCE mostly have SQUARED out its PRICE with TIME. In our earlier review on 30th,NOVEMBER we discussed the zone of 2750-2786 as possible SQUARING OUT area. TIME wise we were closely watching Dates of 1st 2nd and 5th,DECEMBER. That is where multiple CYCLES got completed. And just around that, RELIANCE made high of 2755 which was within projected PRICE zone. We also got anticipated reversal and it has been a decent decline from highs within few days. Going forward RELIANCE may consolidate here before next move on downside. The next move would trigger below 2550-2570, on cash for PATTERN targets of 2495 and 2435, watch out!
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY is waiting for NIFTY BANK to join it on downside. Looks like events are not enough to move this market on either sides. Going forward there is slight change on criteria, for near term reversal.
VIBRATION PATTERN breakdown remains at 18,480 on spot. But on TIME front we have next (TIME SQUARING) date tomorrow. So our reference level for higher degree reversal would shift higher from 18,133 to tomorrows low.
A daily close below tomorrows low would begin the process for larger reversal. If markets does not close below tomorrows low, then this TIME consuming process will continue till 18th,DECEMBER. Very low possiblity that markets continues this way till 18th, but something has to happen starting Tomorrow!
NIFTY BANK UPDATE
NIFTY BANK is in some other trend. Wont be fare if I call it as an uptrend,Not a downtrend as well. Few days back shared level of 42,900 as very critical support. So far holding it well. From late OCTOBER this index has been in fairytales BULL MARKET.
Because in OCTOBER it made a high of 41,700 and in DECEMBER the high is 43,515 so in the course of 45 days the range is only 1800 points. Truly historic, when was the last time we saw such price behaviour at the TOP. Think for a while, should find the answer!
TIME wise on 5th,DECEMBER it completed the TIME rotation from MARCH lows. But we would see its impact only once 42,900 breaks. Going forward 9th and 12th DECEMBER would be key turning dates, which could push prices to atleast move normally.
PRICE wise, earlier from SEPTEMBER low we did expected a bounce, but that bounce expanded further. The structure got complicated but overall setup still remains BEARISH. Sounds strange, but that’s how it is!
For short term there is a process which have to be followed which shall begin once 42,900 breaks. For medium term minimum objective is 32,155 once we get there shall post further projections. January might be that PIVOT MONTH, let’s see!
BHARTI AIRTEL UPDATE
BHARTI;AIRTEL is slowly drifting lower. But there is a slight problem here. 52,weeks high printed on NSE is 860, and on BSE is 877, this difference is above normal for an INDEX stock. So let’s take the NSE high here which was posted on 22nd,NOVEMBER.
If we calculate levels from 860 then (VIBRATION PATTERN) breakdown is projected below 810 on cash. Below 810 PATTERN Target would be 767 and 725 in coming days. 9th&20th,DECEMBER, would be key CYCLE dates here watch out for some high frequency VIBRATION near these dates!
