NIFTY gave a daily close below 18,068 yesterday which gave us the conformation that TIME is still BEARISH. So structure continues to be very week and probability for a print of 17,578 during the month is still considerably high, 17,578 is our pending HEXAGON Target on downside.
But so far PRICE PATTERN have not conformed that recent high of 18,265 is a final high, to confirm that NIFTY spot have to break 17,948, with VIX under 16 it’s tough to get back to back down days.
Hens we are not expecting vertical decline for now until PRICE PATTERN provides additional conformation. NIFTY BANK too needs to break 42,300-42,600 zone to trigger a hard drop. So we still prefer to sell rallies, tom imp date, watch out.

$S&P;500; have entered the (NEW YEAR) with very week Technical structure. In our review here on 16th,DECEMBER 2022, we were very clear that the counter trend bounce which got started from OCTOBER lows has ended and MARKETS again have turned lower.
and MARKETZ have turned lower after that. For very short term we have been considering few OPTIONS. 1, of them is a bounce till 3,910-3,930 if this bounce takes place then, it would be followed by very sharp decline. Which can drag prices below 3,751 and once 3,751 breaks, this decline would enter in its next stage, which wont be a choppy decline.
If 3,751 breaks without a bounce then also it’s fine, but 3,751 remains a critical level for very short term. For positional traders there is a PATTERN clarity. The print of 3,840 before (CHRISTMAS), Have triggered a (HEXAGON(,+,(HARMONIC CHANNEL) breakdown, which have clean price objectives for 3,521-3,571 positionally on S&P cash. Let’s see how the short term setup unfolds, but there are no tiny doubts with positional setup. That’s it!

NIFTY is still in holiday mode. Nothing really happening. Last Friday we discussed we need a daily close below 18,068 to role down. we still await that. So until we get that, for very short term setup will remain absolutely sideways.
MARKET is not willing to move even 1% in a single direction. The volatility is contracting with each passing day. Volumes too should get back to normal from today, so need to be prepared for increased action from Tomorrow.
Now all these things would materialize on BEARISH side only if we break levels on downside. On TIME front 4th&6th Jan would b critical dates for this week. The major swing for 5-6% move would be on downside. Need to wait until that unfolds.

NIFTY have tested 18,250 this morning; so the pull;back which started from lows made on MONDAY has reached its ideal projection. Now we await a short term reversal which as posted on wednesday, would trigger below a daily close under 18,068 on spot! Same criteria applies for NIFTY BANK as well!
Thee real action would start from next week, because volumes are very low which usually happens during the end of DECEMBER every year. If MARKET takes TIME to close below 28th,DECEMBER low then it would again play out another TIME consuming pattern for a week or two!
Last 2 months have impacted the mind set of all market participants. People have forgot the basics of MARKET operations just a week back everyone expected 17,000 today level of 19,000 is back on table, let’s se what happens. Would be intresting to see how long it takes for market to close below 28th,low!

HDFC;BANK is poised very interestingly, basically it is the only heavy weight stock which has not broken major PATTERN supports. But there are some cracks on short term setup, would be little bit aggressive, according to it’s short term pattern if (HDFC BANK) fails to take out the recent high off 1669 then it can easily break the low off 1585 and make lower lows closer to 1540-1560 on cash. a print of 1560 would complete the TRIANGLE and break of 1540 would signal a medium term weakness on this STOCK.
This is comparatively a risky setup to short, so need to manage positions wisely!

NIFTY have a critical TIME CYCLE DATE Today. A daily close below Todays low would continue to keep short term CYCLES Bearish, PRICE anyways is just under-going a Technical bounce which is absolutely normal. On upside, as we discussed earlier this bounce can extend till 18,250, or slightly higher then that, but that really doesn’t changes anything. Even at current levels I would like to re-position myself on short side for positional Target of 17,578 which is coming from not only HEXAGON PATTERN, but from SQUARING PATTERN as well.
I do expect this level somewhere in JANUARY, for very short term we need a daily close below Todays Low to end this rally. There are few quarterly INDEX re-balancing which would take place Tomorrow that would have some impact on PRICES. But that wont change the structure!

RELIANCE; finally ended the consolidation in past week when it broke the zone of 2,550-2,570 on cash. That triggered the PATTERN breakdown for which the 1st Target was placed at 2,495. Which got achieved on Friday.
2nd Target is placed at 2,435, mentioned on these earlier on 12th,DECEMBER. The longer term structure here have weakened considerably which is suggesting very wide Targets, but would take it step by step!

NIFTY getting that natural upmove which was due after last weeks selloff. On upside zone of 18,040-18,060 would be very critical if taken out this bounce can extend upto 18,250 approximately, before next leg down resumes. On TIME front we have 2,very important CYCLE dates during the week.
Which would be on 28th and 30th,DECEMBER. These are very important dates from SEPTEMBER 30th low and DECEMBER 1st high so need to watch this very closely. Next leg lower would be very fast, but before that let’s see where this bounce ends!

TATA;CHEMICALS, have achieved the CHANNEL Target of 930 on cash. Today it made the low of 875 which was near 870 todays bounce is a normal reactive bounce so the CIRCLE Target of 870 still stands incomplete. Should get there going forward!

2022 has almost ended during the year we have seen MARKETS swinging both ways. But today let’s try to understand how could 2023 play out for EQUITY MARKETS. MARKETS;in;2023 first of all if you are a medium to long term investor then I cannot wish you a (HAPPY NEW YEAR). Because it wont be a good year specially for long only investors. I kept alerting through out the year: that we are in a BEAR;MARKET for global equities and we have seen MARKETS declining globally.
But 2022 was all about a Technical price correction there was nothing like a CRASH. That was the only reason that dispite markets going down the ANALYST COMMUNITY never got uncomfortable infact they got more confident to buy dips. But unfortunately that dint worked in all SCRIPTS.
But this did worked for few STOCKS specially those who held major weight on Headline INDICES which kept retail investors happy. The actual pain was felt in BROADER MARKETS not only in INDIA but in U.S. as well. But there are very few folks those who really want to discuss the pain of small and midcaps.
I asked the same question in late NOVEMBER but got no answer, everyone was so exited that NIFTY has made a fresh all time highs. I wrote a post that TIME which no one liked. Infact in 1st 2,weeks of OCTOBER I had mentioned on a final push on upside.
Which we got, but it took extra time then what I thought price wise U.S. MARKETS did perfect pullback but NIFTY travelled bit more then what I expected. But never the less it dint changed anything.
Because the entire BEARISH view was never subject to any PRICE level or any ECONOMIC or geo-political reasons. It was entirely based on (TIME CYCLES) For NIFTY this entire upside from SEPTEMBER lows was totally deceptive and against major CYCLE Which in no ways could sustain for long.

We have seen markets give away 50% of those gains and going forward it would give up entire gains. In short term there would be upsides but in this post we are discussing market outlook for 2023. So let’s focus on that. For NIFTY 2023 average upside projections are at 23,000.
Which to me holds no relevance. According to TIME CYCLES 2023 could be a year of MARKET CRASH which would get extreme in certain TIME zones a very hard fall in EQUITY MARKETS is possible during the year which can drag NIFTY to not only towards 14,400 which I have been posting but it can go even lower then that..I have certain calculations which goes all the way down till 12,600 which could be a possiblity before 2023 ends. Sectors like BANKS and AUTO could provide that help to reach there. We are entering next phase of this BEARISH CYCLE: Which would be more painful then what we saw in 2022. In U.S. MARKETS I wrote a separate post on DJI earlier. So let’s move on to S&P;500; During the year I kept posting the target of 3,260 which will certainly come in 2023 But 3,260 was never the final target for this BEAR MARKET. It is a critical geometrical level but not something which is not breakable. My conservative projections on S&P would be 2,600-2,800 during 2023, focusing only conservatively now.
Not putting the maximum expectations at this point. U.S. MARKETS have performed exactly as per CYCLE rotation till this date, there are no irregular pattern developments like NIFTY. It is not easy to digest these levels as of today, But as the year progresses markets would keep finding appropriate and valid reasons to test new lows. It would be a gradual process to complete this BEAR MARKET decline. But good part is we may find the final low during the year and that would be a generational opportunity to create long term PORTFOLIO.
But you need to sit with appropriate cash today to invest at those levels. During the year there would be very sharp technical upsides from extreme levels but better to consider them as Trading rallies nothing beyond that.
This is going to be a very exiting year if you are a Gann Trader because there is a lot of clarity on how things are going to unfold from here. I would continue to put out short term updates on markets but the bigger picture has to be considered just to be more clear with overall structure.
So don’t mixup things specially if you are some one who prefer to trade in weekly OPTIONS. remember there are 365 days in a year, and all days will not end up with cuts. Would leave it here with festival greetings and a hope for a HAPPY NEW YEAR!