SBI needs to register a lower low below 557 to resume next leg lower, all upsides since lows of 499 and 501 are so TIME consuming and very overlapping which unfortunately cannot be considered as an uptrending move. Once this breaks 557 it should test levels of 525 and 501 in coming days. SBI wont sink alone it would take down entire BANKING pack, watch out.

NIFTY was showing signs of exhaustion in past week, as we discussed on last Friday above (18,389) NIFTY certainly would struggle to travel, I also spelled out the reason for that. With todays move below (18,195) markets are getting very closer to an important REVERSAL point. The INTRADAY move below (18,000) or even (18,042) would mark a major REVERSAL which would signal an end of current rally from MARCH lows. I posted this earlier as well, once this REVERSAL is confirmed we are likely to vitnes a waterfall decline in MARKETS. I dont want to go in greater details of other CYCLES aspects but point which we need to understand is below (18,000) PRICE damage would be severe. If you think that MARKET has done alot in last 20,days then you really need to check MARKETS from the high of 28th,APRIL. There has been enormous PRICE consolidation in last 3,weeks not only in INDIA but in global markets as well. it’s high time that this consolidation ends in days immediately ahead. Last time when I said that MARKETS would test MARCH lows people misread that, I dont think that lows should hold, lets see where we end in june.

CANBK, has broken down below 45-degree-angle from its january high of 341. We certainly have that high as a significant top, very unlikely that gets taken out. Infact the swing high of 327 also seems difficult to break. STOCK is under-going change in its CYCLES, below 299 we already have got VIBRATION PATTERN breakdown whose targets are placed below 275 and 252 on cash in next few weeks. All P.S.U. BANKS are giving signs for 10-15% decline in coming days.

NIFTY is showing signs of exhaustion but this wont be sufficient to register a REVERSAL. This rally most probably would struggle to travel above yesterdays high of (17,389) yesterdays high was a critical Gann angle from MARCH lows. So either PRICE consolidates here for one more week, or it breaks (18,000) and registers a REVERSAL, there are only two possibilities going forward. Lets see, with which option MARKETS goes for? REVERSAL is imminent but there is no point anticipating it we have been sharing REVERSAL levels since mid APRIL and so far those levels are held, once that level breaks, within 4,weeks we should get MARKETS below MARCH lows, (18,000) is that level which once breaks move towards (16,828) should be rapid.

NIFTY is still holding its supports, (18,000) is that level now the break of which, would mark a REVERSAL. Things would stay fine as long as these support levels are held. It’s taking more TIME to complete this rally. fridays decline on (NIFTY) was not able to go through its supports. but on (NIFTY BANK) it broke below critical support of (42,800) so here yesterdays move is an opportunity to add selective shorts on major BANKING names. it’s less likely that NIFTY or NIFTY BANK registers a new record highs. it’s only a matter of when supports are broken? Once supports breaks we have perfect PRICE&TIME cimmetry for a waterfall decline.

NIFTY is still holding on, it made a new high for this calendar year yesterday but still things continue to stand where they were. No material change on near term setup from what we discussed on TUESDAY. MARKET is yet to register a proper reversal. Major support still stands in zone of (17,800-18,000) on spot. Once we close below this zone, market should resume its primary trend which is on downside. We are still in that TIME zone of 28th,APRIL to 8th,MAY so market can stay bit more volatile, as per TIME this rally was suppose to terminate within this TIME window. Lets see whether it ends or not. Global markets gave more clear signs of reversal, accept NASDAQ all other INDICES have broken down. Once NASDAQ COMPOSITE breaks (11,600-11,800) that too would signal a break down, which would drag it below 2022 lows. in INDIA, NIFTY BANK had been a key reason for this extended move, if that breaks below (42,800) that would be a reversal sign. Watch out for (42,800) very closely, we have been of the opinion that, BANKING INDEX is well poised for a dramatic turn on downside,but for now lets wait, until supports breaks.

NIFTY is not going as per expectations, it requires to register a REVERSAL to resume another leg lower. We have been sharing LEVELS which so far has held, but once those levels breaks we shall conform next major and furious move on downside. MARKETS have posted incremental upside above (17,863) but this has not changed the texture of overall structure. Yes in short-term as long as supports are held market can hold on, but beyond that nothing has changed. The downside risk has not at all gone off from any equation. “In beginning of APRIL we focused particularly on current quarter to fulfill our BEARISH objectives, we also posted that this would be a journey of 12,weeks, out of that we still have 8,more weeks to go, so enough TIME still left, once reversal is confirmed MARKETS can give up 4% rally of APRIL in just one week. We also have been concentrating on (INDIA VIX), the monthly close of APRIL is one of the lowest monthly close on (VIX). There has been very interesting coincidences with MARKET TOPS at very low level of volatility. Closer to 10 (VIX) is perfectly poised for a substantial move on upside. “that move should take (VIX) above 21 in next few weeks. This would get very interesting. According to TIME MARKET is in a critical TIME zone between 28th,APRIL to 8th,MAY, we would still look for reversal within this TIME zone. Now where would that reversal sign come? That zone have shifted higher to 17,800-17,850 on spot. Once market close below this zone, it should be over.

NIFTY with the exceed of (17,863) have pushed up PRICE breakdown point. Earlier breakdown was placed in the zone of (17,424-17,491) on spot, with todays move the levels have shifted higher to (17,550-17,650). Other then this nothing has changed. This certainly would not go well with the majority but we do have certain reasons to continue with our BEARISH view. The only thing which is holding up is breakdown point, PRICE have managed to hold its supports, once that breaks mentioned levels, we are likely to enter the phase of furious move on downside. So ideally we should break those support level next week. From tomorrow MARKET’S are entering very strong TIME window till 8th,MAY. Once these supports goes we shall witness TIME and PRICE breakdown. Global Markets as expected earlier have turned lower and have confirm their TOP. NIFTY is bit late but that too would turn down along with other MARKETS. Lets see, interesting days ahead.

NIFTY still continues to carry underline weakness under its surface. Although PRICE has not reacted much, the FORM of this market is very week. As we have been discussing here that the counter-trend-advance from MARCH lows is more or less have ended at 17th,APRIL high. we got some evidence of that in past week. The TIME structure for (NIFTY) is very bearish. PRICE is holding up because of NIFTY BANK, going forward that is going to be a critical INDEX to track. On NIFTY BANK we mentioned support level of 41,500 which was held in past week. Since PRICE hav stretched higher, we are considering an alternate plan here, which requires a higher high above 42,850 and then a lower low below 42,100 to complete its (HEXAGON PATTERN) NIFTY too is holding up to levels of 17,424-17,491 on spot the break of this zone would resume next leg lower. Since last MONDAY PRICES are absolutely flat in defined range. As long as it stays under 17,863 it is likely to turn down anytime. TIME zone from 28th,APRIL to 8th,MAY, would be absolutely critical, if market doesn’t break down now then it has to break within this TIME window. Lets see. if 17,863 breaks then break down level would shift higher.

NIFTY is confirming our BEARISH view, the patience which we have kept in last few days is likely to pay off very well, in days and weeks ahead. As we highlighted ON MONDAY there were initial indications for a sharp TOP, and MARKETS have now confirmed that. The daily close below (17,655) have turned short-term CYCLES bearish. Going forward we would look for a break of (17,424-17,491), this should not take much time to break. and once this zone breaks all upside possibility would go away. In our opinion the bounce from march lows was only a counter-trend-bounce which got stretched for 1 extra week. Nothing really changed despite NIFTY going above (17,800) Till june end we are still looking for levels of (15,183) on NIFTY. We are watching global MARKETS also very closely specially EUROPEAN and U.S. MARKETS are getting very closer to a major trend reversal. we should get some hint of that till friday, markets lately have gone very dull and sideways, hens would UPDATE in greater detail as and when activity picks up. Our outlook remains very BEARISH for U.S. MARKETS specifically.