NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY as of now should easily have achieved our upside Target objective of 22,325 as we discussed yesterday.
but for known or may be unknown reasons it’s taking more TIME.
let’s see what TOMORROW have in store for MARKETS.
If MARKET avoids a GAP-DOWN tomorrow then target is coming tomorrow but its risky.
we already discussed on critical support yesterday which continues to be at 22,000 on closing basis.
since we have a MARKET moving EVENT tonight so better go HEDGED for TOMORROW.

NIFTY EOD UPDATE for 20/02/2024

NIFTY on anticipated lines continued higher.
in yesterdays EOD POST we discussed the near term PATTERN target of 22,325 on spot  which still continues to be a pending target to achieve.
As we discussed in SUNDAYS post from MONDAY to WEDNESDAY MARKETS could stay up,
the real test of this upside is due from THURSDAy onwards.
SUPPORT for NIFTY is at 22,000 on closing basis.
So this throw over move is likely to continue as long as 22,000 is held.

NIFTY BANK with todays upside may certainly have created excitement in majority of traders but during next 3 days that should again dial back.
HDFCBANK is our top pick for our short accounts in 2024 so in next few days we would certainly utilize this move.

That’s it for today,
See you guys TOMORROW.

NIFTY SETUP AS I SEE IT

NIFTY is stuck at highs so today let’s discuss the larger setup as I se it.
We already discussed the near term outlook yesterday.

For me most important part is even when NIFTY is at fresh highs NIFTY BEES is still 2.5% away from its record high.
You may ask what’s NIFTY BEES?

Today let’s understand NIFTY using textbook guidelines of GANN THEORY.

In his BOOK,
MASTER STOCK MARKET COURSE,
in chapter 4 sir GANN have discussed in detail on GEOMETRICAL ANGLES.
and within that chapter at page 22 he has given few very important guidelines on FORECASTING TOPS and BOTTOMS.
He said that Most MARKET run out in 3 important sections or campanes normally.
but in some cases there would also be the 4th section of a larger move which would mark the culmination and generally this TOP or BOTTOM of 4th section always triggers a major REVERSAL.

this 4th section is always very tricky and market goes through a very irrational phase specially towards the end of the move.
And currently on NIFTY we are exactly in that phase.
Not only on NIFTY infact for all major INDICES baaring CHINESE MARKETS we are standing towards the end of that 4th and final section of this upmove.

For NIFTY from june 2022 low this is the 4th reaction.
Let’s recall all those reactions in their order.

The 1st reaction started from June 2022 low and culminated at SEPTEMBER 2022 high of 18,096.
The 2nd move or reaction started from SEPTEMBER 2022 LOW to DECEMBER 2022 high of 18,887.

Note both this REACTION lasted only for few weeks.
So 3rd REACTION which is always an important move has to consume more TIME then 1st 2 REACTIONS.
and that did played out on expected lines.

3rd REACTION started from MARCH 2023 low and continued all the way till SEPTEMBER of 2023 it ended at the PRICE of 20,222.
So from there we got a REACTION which overlapped the TOP of R2 of 18,887 in OCTOBER of 2023.
Hens the recovery post OCTOBER LOW  in mid NOVEMBER gave early indications for the rare 4th section of the entire upmove,
The higher high above 20,222 in DECEMBER actually confirmed that.
So since then 4th section of the upmove has been continued and currently we are at the final stage of that move.

I have done these calculations on much larger time frame even if I do it on smaller T/F then also we can get the same result.
even if I count from OCTOBER LOW then also I would end exactly within the 4th section currently.

Well its getting too long now.
Was planning to include setup of U-S-MARKET here as well but short on TIME today.
Would include them later probably in sundays post.
Thanks alot for all the feedback on yesterdays post.
Couldn’t reply all EMAILS yesterday hens sharing this peace as a public post thanks again 👍

NIFTY UPDATE FOR SUBSCRIBERS

NIFTY since 29th,JANUARY has been giving a daily close within the range of 21,600-21,950,
although the overall range has been 596 points.

So going forward if 21,950 is cleared on closing basis then that could open up way for another overthrow high above 22,126.
but that too would again be sold off!

As I posted yesterday,
it’s a TRAP,
and our objectives of 21,150 still continues to persist.
with or without a new high.
life would had been much simpler if NIFTY spot would had stayed under 21,860,
but that’s not the case and we would have to deal with such complex setup.

Since INDEX has been in a tite range everyone is trying to catch the next wave of move,
and our sense is post initial turbulence trend for the entire MARKET is likely to resolve on downside.

next few days and weeks should validate our view,
let’s see.

see even if we keep GANN theory or any other analytical FORECASTING methods on one side.
MARKET internals consistently have deteriorated since past few sessions.
So that further gives us more comfort with our view.
I publicly never share things in such details my job is to present you facts and my own view based on those facts.
I am not here to to prove anyone wrong or convince you with my own view.
RISK MANAGEMENT is always a key element in trading and I share that regularly in my EOD UPDATES.

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY is setting up a perfect trap for BULLS.
lucrative INTRADAY candles may look good to keep PRICE records other then that it does not have any meaningfull impact on overall technical setup.
2,STOCKS which are lifting up INDICES are SBI and RELIANCE,
SBI should be at its final stages from its move from 2023 LOWS.
but RELIANCE may still have some more upsides to work with.

for NIFTY 21860 is critical a complex PATTERN is likely to play out above that.
We still have enough TIME till 26th,FEBRUARY to test levels of 21,150.
Next few days shall be intresting.