CANFIN HOME view

CANFIN HOMES has posted a critical TOP at 540 few days back. Geometrically it completed a CIRCLE rotation there. As long as that’s not taken out, we can expect this stock to correct further in Coming days.
The BEARISH PATTERNS would expand further below 489 on cash. Ideally this should go there first. Once 489 breaks it can test 462 and even 431 positionally. But better to take it step by step!

CHOLAFIN view

CHOLAFIN would give (SQUARING PATTERN) breakdown below 695 on closing Basis. Once this triggers Targets of 670 and 641 would open up on cash in Coming days. The problem here is slow momentum.
Not only on this stock, slow momentum is the problem with majority of stocks in this market. The volumes are missing on both sides of the TABLE. Hopefully volumes would pick up, from next week!
MID and SMALL caps have not participated in this recent rally. Looks very unlikely, that they would join from here
There are many MIDCAPS which are Breaking down, once momentum picks up, would look to explore more STOCKS.

S&P;500; UPDATE

$S&P;500; is finally Trading around 4,000, last week when we reviewed it, it was around 3,850, but TIME for short term was up, as long as it was above, 4th,NOVEMBER low of 3,698
It went very close to that, but protected that, and rallied very hard. Which took everyone by surprise, still the rally has been contained under 4,050
Let’s see whether that’s taken out or not, in Coming days!
Anyways S&P have posted a critical high yesterday, at yesterdays high it has almost covered 64% distance of (AUGUST-OCTOBER) decline! Historically this often turns out as a Turning Point.
According to (TIME CYCLES) the deviation which took place in mid OCTOBER is likely to end on 18th,NOVEMBER so this move approximately should end soon. And once this ends, we should travel down, back to OCTOBER low of 3,491 and ofcourse 3,260 which has been my minimum projection for this BEAR MARKET in U.S.
A daily close below 3,944 would give primary indication that this rally is coming to an end. There was never a possiblity of a Larger reversal, and until few objectives are really met that option is just not there.
So it’s only a matter of TIME, this BEAR MARKET have produced several ecliptic fake out rallies during this year and this recent rally is no different. Every BEAR MARKET rally ends differently, let’s see how this one ends!

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY still have that positivity in (TIME) till 18th,NOVEMBER, as posted in previous week. PRICE wont matter till Friday, PRICE can travel anywhere between 18,550-18,750 on spot. But the cut off point from here is 18,259 on closing basis. A daily close below 18,259 would neutralised the setup!
On TIME front from 21st,NOVEMBER we would start Looking for reversal, not before that. 3 more days to go let’s see how far this goes!
Personally have started to add long dated (PUT OPTIONS). But for now positions are light, further positions would be added only when TIME and PRICE both conformed reversal. Yes, we do anticipate that to happen,
Still would wait to see, how things shapes up from next Monday! Because the number of CYCLES which would complete till this Friday would certainly trigger some degree of reversal in PRICE.

DXY UPDATE

DXY plenty of things has been said on it, since past Thursday. A one week decline of 4% have convinced the majority that a Long term Top has been made on $ at SEPTEMBER high of 114.78. But if we go by CYCLES that’s not the case. DXY, is consolidating under SEPTEMBER highs, and this for now appears a BULLISH consolidation. Major supports are at 104.25-105.50, setup is very strong if this holds, we can even go back to 112-114 in the matter of few weeks.
For long term projections of 120-127 have not gone off the TABLE. Mentioned these levels on post dated 27th,SEPTEMBER, Also in past have mentioned repeatedly, that the strength in $ will certainly break something!
and that something broke last week on CRIPTO MARKETS. so far its contained colaps but will certainly get deeper in days to come. The collateral damage of this would be felt in all FINANCIAL MARKETS.
Whether that effect comes, next week or next month doesn’t matter. But it will come. This CYCLE was finding its victim and most likely it has got that. Would be intresting to see, how this shapes up.

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY is having that attempt higher, led by NIFTY BANK. A daily close below 18,017 would had helped: but it missed that with small margin. Never the less, we got that comfort yesterday to Look for selling opportunities in this upside.
This Gap up, doesn’t turn everything BULLISH. Because there are certain CYCLES which completed during the course of this week. Let me mention few!
This week we completed, 144 CALENDAR days from JUNE 17th, LOW: 125 days from JULY 1st low: 56 days from SEPTEMBER 15th, high: 42 days from SEPTEMBER 30th low.
Also 21 and 19 weeks from june and july lows. 21 and 19 are not GANN numbers but important numbers in HARMONIC theory. Few other CYCLES have also completed but if I mention that: it would get too long.
So WHAT does this signal, to put it in easy terms, when such high number of CYCLES completes there Is always a reversal of on going trend, which for now has been POSITIVE.
REVERSAL could be of higher or lower degree, but it does takes place. So let’s give 1 more week to MARKETS to really resolve these things. Anyways from 21st NOVEMBER the BEARISHNESS would again activate as I mentioned on MONDAY.
I am someone who would prefer January or March PUTS to start as next trading position, just 30% at this rate, would increase allocation once I get further conformation. So what happens tomorrow doesn’t really bother me.
As far as U.S. MARKETS are concerned I already posted on them couple of days back, upside was open as long as 4th,NOVEMBER lows stays intact. So yesterdays rally wasn’t that surprising. Further details are spelled in that post.

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY broke the support zone of 18,020-18,060 which was mentioned yesterday. So things finally are coming to an end: as far as this rally is concerned. It doesn’t have to turn immediately, but we have that signal to start adding SHORTS.
A daily close below 18,017, which was the low of TIME SQUARING DATE would conform more weakness ahead. If U.S. MARKETS also break 4th,NOVEMBER low, then it would be a coordinated decline across all markets.
NIFTY BANK is still holding its support, even a break of 41,000 is required. May not go much far above yesterdays high, but to turn down supports must break. PSU BANK INDEX also doesn’t have incremental upside going forward.
So let’s see whether MARKETS turn down from here or there is 1 more attempt higher which could be pushed by NIFTY BANK. 1 thing is certain from today, we have completed the upside, bounce if any would be a selling opportunity.

S&P 500 UPDATE

$S&P;500; is Largely waiting for the CYCLE DEVIATION to end. If the MARKET would had been strong then it must had printed 4,050 till now. But it is still Trading around 3,850.
Doesn’t have much TIME now, on 25th,OCTOBER we expected the BOUNCE to last till mid NOVEMBER, we are almost there, next week we would complete this TIME window. So if this rally still have to reach,
Closer to 4,000 Then it must happen till next week. On phlip side, if U.S. INDICES, break the low of 4th,NOVEMBER then this rally officially will end at that point, and all short term BULLISH equations would vanish.
So it’s just a matter of TIME now, before we again turn heavily BEARISH on U.S. MARKETS, Either below the low of 4th,NOVEMBER, or above 4,000-4,050, let’s see, friday 11th,NOVEMBER key CYCLE DATE for $S&P,

NIFTY and NIFTY BANK UPDATE

NIFTY has printed an important GANN CARDINAL number at OPEN: but holding its supports very well.
Supports have moved further higher to (18,020-18,060) on spot.
As long as this holds this upmove can continue further.
NIFTY BANK also have printed a higher high above SEPTEMBER highs. Doesn’t really change the trajectory but can provide more bounce for short term TRADERS. Here also the show can continue only as long as the supports are held.
Which as of today are placed at (40,500-41,000) on cash. This upmove can stretch for another week, if these supports are held. After that irrespective of PRICE TIME would be considered again BEARISH from 21st,NOVEMBER.
So just take is at Trading bounce, don’t presume for 20% more from Here. It’s not that type of MARKET which will consolidate here give a dipp, and then continue Higher.

NIFTY UPDATE

NIFTY have taken out the high of 18,179, today. Last week we thought that we are ending this rally. But that required the conformation: which dint came. The conformation would had came, if NIFTY would had printed 17,950 on spot!
It went very close but some how managed to protect that. So we dint got that SHORT signal. Anyways since 2nd,week of OCTOBER: I had been skeptical to SHORT this MARKET. Still I kept posting the support levels, which till today has been saved or protected!
There were multiple developments on PATTERNS and CYCLES which suggested a decent rally: after the decline which took place in 2nd,half of SEPTEMBER. Now the tough part of this view was, how far this could had stretched?
Today we know that answer, at that point I preferred to focus only on TIME&PATTERN supports, which worked throughout and is still working well. I wasn’t really interested in guessing the TOP: Because it’s tough
To call a TOP of a move which is coming out of a CYCLE DEVIATION! It only can end with a break of a PATTERN support. or after completing a CYCLE rotation. Its definitely not a trend!
I know this point wont go well with RETAIL TRADERS. But things still have not changed: finally to put it in technical terms, once we have the TOP of this rally. NIFTY can go back
To JUNE low of 15,183 in 66% of TIME, starting from 17th,june to X,day of NOVEMBER: For example if it takes 100 days from LOW to HIGH it would only take 66 days to go back to LOW from HIGH!
From days I mean Trading days not Calender Days. So let’s wait to TRADE that move, once this rally ends: so far it has not ended until supports are held. TIME wise max it can continue only till next week!
Suppose if it keeps rising till next week, then PRICE wont matter, whether it breaks 18,604 or not. The end result is not going to change. From here better to take 1 day at a TIME, And keep focusing on supports!