NIFTY still lag that support from NIFTY BANK. MARKETS are again painting simillar picture, of holding the low of (TIME SQUARING) DATE on closing basis, and trade sideways. Just consuming more TIME. Let’s see how long this continues.
NIFTY is week but NIFTY BANK is not. Highlighted this yesterday as well. Critical events due in next 2 days, better to hedge trades using weekly CALLS, and let markets navigate these events.
The INTER-MARKET diversion between NIFTY and NIFTY BANK cannot last beyond a certain point. Some one have to give up. Let’s see how things goes. Better to protect trades and watch things play out.
Category: STOCK MARKETS
MARKET UPDATE
NIFTY has given a VIBRATION PATTERN breakdown below 18,480 on Friday. So we have that primary indication for things finally Turning down. BUT we still require participation from NIFTY BANK, because NIFTY is clear With its week structure, but NIFTY BANK is yet to conformed things. 42,900 remains critical level as we discussed earlier. But before that it has to give a daily close below 43,361 which stands the low of (TIME SQUARING) DATE.
Same goes for NIFTY a daily close below 18,410 would add more weakness to current setup. Since we are anticipating major turn lower so we do require these step by step conformations. So far what we have can only take us to 18,200 but as we progress this level should move lower!
RELIANCE UPDATE
RELIANCE mostly have SQUARED out its PRICE with TIME. In our earlier review on 30th,NOVEMBER we discussed the zone of 2750-2786 as possible SQUARING OUT area. TIME wise we were closely watching Dates of 1st 2nd and 5th,DECEMBER. That is where multiple CYCLES got completed. And just around that, RELIANCE made high of 2755 which was within projected PRICE zone. We also got anticipated reversal and it has been a decent decline from highs within few days. Going forward RELIANCE may consolidate here before next move on downside. The next move would trigger below 2550-2570, on cash for PATTERN targets of 2495 and 2435, watch out!
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY is waiting for NIFTY BANK to join it on downside. Looks like events are not enough to move this market on either sides. Going forward there is slight change on criteria, for near term reversal.
VIBRATION PATTERN breakdown remains at 18,480 on spot. But on TIME front we have next (TIME SQUARING) date tomorrow. So our reference level for higher degree reversal would shift higher from 18,133 to tomorrows low.
A daily close below tomorrows low would begin the process for larger reversal. If markets does not close below tomorrows low, then this TIME consuming process will continue till 18th,DECEMBER. Very low possiblity that markets continues this way till 18th, but something has to happen starting Tomorrow!
NIFTY BANK UPDATE
NIFTY BANK is in some other trend. Wont be fare if I call it as an uptrend,Not a downtrend as well. Few days back shared level of 42,900 as very critical support. So far holding it well. From late OCTOBER this index has been in fairytales BULL MARKET.
Because in OCTOBER it made a high of 41,700 and in DECEMBER the high is 43,515 so in the course of 45 days the range is only 1800 points. Truly historic, when was the last time we saw such price behaviour at the TOP. Think for a while, should find the answer!
TIME wise on 5th,DECEMBER it completed the TIME rotation from MARCH lows. But we would see its impact only once 42,900 breaks. Going forward 9th and 12th DECEMBER would be key turning dates, which could push prices to atleast move normally.
PRICE wise, earlier from SEPTEMBER low we did expected a bounce, but that bounce expanded further. The structure got complicated but overall setup still remains BEARISH. Sounds strange, but that’s how it is!
For short term there is a process which have to be followed which shall begin once 42,900 breaks. For medium term minimum objective is 32,155 once we get there shall post further projections. January might be that PIVOT MONTH, let’s see!
BHARTI AIRTEL UPDATE
BHARTI;AIRTEL is slowly drifting lower. But there is a slight problem here. 52,weeks high printed on NSE is 860, and on BSE is 877, this difference is above normal for an INDEX stock. So let’s take the NSE high here which was posted on 22nd,NOVEMBER.
If we calculate levels from 860 then (VIBRATION PATTERN) breakdown is projected below 810 on cash. Below 810 PATTERN Target would be 767 and 725 in coming days. 9th&20th,DECEMBER, would be key CYCLE dates here watch out for some high frequency VIBRATION near these dates!
DOWJONES UPDATE
DOWJONES;INDUSTRIALS is possibly in its last stages of its counter trend move which started from OCTOBER Lows. May be it already peaked at 34,600 or have 1 more high pending above that: doesn’t matter this move in all probabilities is near its end!
Since MARCH I have been posting BEARISH outlook on U.S. MARKETS. and markets have corrected fare enough since then. BULLISH or BEARISH Outlook in Gann Theory is measured by previous MARKET CYCLES.
This can go back several days,weeks,months or years. There are certain rules which are classified in Gann Theory which makes the job easy for finding which CYCLE is likely to repeat.
Now when we project (MARKET CYCLES) that not only specify the STOCK MARKETS particularly, MARKET CYCLE also includes ECONOMIC CYCLE, CORPORATE PROFIT CYCLE, WAR CYCLES and TRANSFORMATION CYCLES. Now when we combine these CYCLES that equals the complete MARKET CYCLE.
Later this MARKET CYCLE is projected using (TIME CYCLES). You just cannot project CYCLES using PRICE. In short term that’s fine but beyond then that PRICE holds very less significance. Currently we are following MARKET CYCLE of 1972-1973 in UNITED STATES.
It’s not the aim of this post to show the similarities between that and current CYCLE. The point which we need to understand is: we are likely to repeat that CYCLE which technically means much lower levels in EQUITIES. So when you are absolutely certain with that, then you don’t have any fear or greed.
No matter what the majority feels this BEAR MARKET is not over and the sharpest decline is yet to occur going forward. For short term $DJI have (HARMONIC CHANNEL) support at 33,200 which once breaks would open way for 32,400 31625 and 30,800 in coming days. For medium term would look for 23,000-25,000 zone for a durable BOTTOM!
70% of new investors have no idea what is a BEAR MARKET. The day when you realise that it would be all over. Few BEARISH PATTERNS are very odd and TIME consuming, but what follows next usually hits you very hard, if you get stuck on wrong side of MARKET CYCLE, Let’s see!
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY failed to hold the print of 18,644 on spot, which took away the MOMENTUM from the rally. Such rallies are heavily dependent on MOMENTUM, hens this slow down should be a cause of conserne: but as we discussed on FRIDAY (break of 18,644 will not signal reversal)!
So what can give that indication for reversal. As I explained on 25th,NOVEMBER higher degree reversal would be based on a process which will take TIME. but for short term we need a daily close Below 18,550 to get TIME VIBRATIONS more stronger. Once we get that we would look for VIBRATION PATTERN breakdown which would take place below 18,471 and then we go forward to 18,280 and 18,133. NIFTY is slow to respond but eventually should pick up the speed going forward. With plenty of events lined up from tomorrow need to be watchful
Better to focus on process and step by step conformations!
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY better holds the print of 18,644 on spot, to maintain this uptrend in its current form. Break of 18,644 would not signal a reversal, but would reduce the MOMENTUM on upside. The break-up for (NIFTY) is very intresting. BANKS at any cost have to move higher!
Because 42,900 is very important for NIFTY BANK. A daily close below 42,900 on cash will put this INDEX in week position. On TIME front, on MONDAY this INDEX will hit important geometrical angle from MARCH lows!
Not only NIFTY BANK even NIFTY AUTO would hit that angle, infact anything which made low on 8th,MARCH would be at inflection point!
For NIFTY short term setup will turn bearish once zone of 18,450-18,550 breaks on spot. TIME VIBRATIONS will get stronger below 18,550.
S&P 500 UPDATE
$S&P;500; is going very close to breakdown point but some how managing to protect key levels. This is something amazing, very rarely we see, MARKETS respecting levels to the DOT.
Coming back to our last review here,
On 23rd,NOVEMBER I shared that we do require a daily close below 3,956 to get conformation for a breakdown
and if it does not close below 3,956 then it can make higher highs closer to 4,100. On tuesday (S&P) cash closed at 3,957!
Now we are there at 4,100 so it should end here, if it is a simple correction
Because what happens in simple correction is, you make new lows that recoveres to a certain point again it falls.
And make new lows until MARKET achieves its CYCLE objectives
So far U.S. MARKETS have been in simple correction that’s why it has gone as per script since MARCH!
Going forward if this correction gets COMPLEX then things would get tricky. For now we have less reasons to believe that can happen but need to look out.we should get more clarity till 5th,DECEMBER!
