$S&P;500; has been testing patience for all market participants, doesn’t matter what your individual view is, the PRICE action since early APRIL has been very choppy and narrow. For an INDEX trader such sideways market is very annoying. In our review here in late MARCH we focused on level of 3,900 as a critical support, but we also did not expected it to break 4,100 anyways markets took out 4,100 on 31st,MARCH which opened up few upside possibilities. “After that break of 4,100 on 31st,MARCH it took markets to travel 100 points after 7 long weeks” so if that is considered a breakout? Then it’s a very pathetic one to trade. Last Thursday when S&P cash went above 4,195, trading community went crazy on calling for a new BULL MARKET, but based on our limited understanding on MARKET structure that is not a case, at best ongoing consolidation is an extended pause in a market which is primarily in a down trend. We don’t want to go in detail of under performance of small caps and out-performance for tech, everyone is aware on that. Even though this rally is not going to change the primary trend we should be aware on the best possible level on upside which possibly can terminate this extended upmove. That level would be 4,325. On downside if S&P cash breaks 4048 markets would resume their fresh leg lower. So 4048 would be a critical level to watch. TIME wise 25th and 26th,MAY would be key CYCLE dates.

NIFTY have narrowly escaped the print of (18,042) today structure is pointing that sooner or later this level should break, but yes, until that break we would still prefer to wait before calling for next leg lower. We have convincing evidence that MARKETS have reversed but still, markets lately have been more stronger then our anticipation so that’s the only reason why we are Looking for break of (18,000-18,042) zone because below that no bullish probablity would exist. Lets see how MARKETS break this either with a Gap-down or during MARKETS? NIFTY yesterday have achieved the TIME equality of its rally from JUNE low to DECEMBER high. This according to TIME and SPACE guidelines conforms a significant TOP at (18,887) which as per rules is tough to break, without a print of (15,183) so new highs on NIFTY is not possible. Would be interesting.

SBI needs to register a lower low below 557 to resume next leg lower, all upsides since lows of 499 and 501 are so TIME consuming and very overlapping which unfortunately cannot be considered as an uptrending move. Once this breaks 557 it should test levels of 525 and 501 in coming days. SBI wont sink alone it would take down entire BANKING pack, watch out.

NIFTY was showing signs of exhaustion in past week, as we discussed on last Friday above (18,389) NIFTY certainly would struggle to travel, I also spelled out the reason for that. With todays move below (18,195) markets are getting very closer to an important REVERSAL point. The INTRADAY move below (18,000) or even (18,042) would mark a major REVERSAL which would signal an end of current rally from MARCH lows. I posted this earlier as well, once this REVERSAL is confirmed we are likely to vitnes a waterfall decline in MARKETS. I dont want to go in greater details of other CYCLES aspects but point which we need to understand is below (18,000) PRICE damage would be severe. If you think that MARKET has done alot in last 20,days then you really need to check MARKETS from the high of 28th,APRIL. There has been enormous PRICE consolidation in last 3,weeks not only in INDIA but in global markets as well. it’s high time that this consolidation ends in days immediately ahead. Last time when I said that MARKETS would test MARCH lows people misread that, I dont think that lows should hold, lets see where we end in june.

CANBK, has broken down below 45-degree-angle from its january high of 341. We certainly have that high as a significant top, very unlikely that gets taken out. Infact the swing high of 327 also seems difficult to break. STOCK is under-going change in its CYCLES, below 299 we already have got VIBRATION PATTERN breakdown whose targets are placed below 275 and 252 on cash in next few weeks. All P.S.U. BANKS are giving signs for 10-15% decline in coming days.

NIFTY is showing signs of exhaustion but this wont be sufficient to register a REVERSAL. This rally most probably would struggle to travel above yesterdays high of (17,389) yesterdays high was a critical Gann angle from MARCH lows. So either PRICE consolidates here for one more week, or it breaks (18,000) and registers a REVERSAL, there are only two possibilities going forward. Lets see, with which option MARKETS goes for? REVERSAL is imminent but there is no point anticipating it we have been sharing REVERSAL levels since mid APRIL and so far those levels are held, once that level breaks, within 4,weeks we should get MARKETS below MARCH lows, (18,000) is that level which once breaks move towards (16,828) should be rapid.

NIFTY is still holding its supports, (18,000) is that level now the break of which, would mark a REVERSAL. Things would stay fine as long as these support levels are held. It’s taking more TIME to complete this rally. fridays decline on (NIFTY) was not able to go through its supports. but on (NIFTY BANK) it broke below critical support of (42,800) so here yesterdays move is an opportunity to add selective shorts on major BANKING names. it’s less likely that NIFTY or NIFTY BANK registers a new record highs. it’s only a matter of when supports are broken? Once supports breaks we have perfect PRICE&TIME cimmetry for a waterfall decline.

NIFTY is still holding on, it made a new high for this calendar year yesterday but still things continue to stand where they were. No material change on near term setup from what we discussed on TUESDAY. MARKET is yet to register a proper reversal. Major support still stands in zone of (17,800-18,000) on spot. Once we close below this zone, market should resume its primary trend which is on downside. We are still in that TIME zone of 28th,APRIL to 8th,MAY so market can stay bit more volatile, as per TIME this rally was suppose to terminate within this TIME window. Lets see whether it ends or not. Global markets gave more clear signs of reversal, accept NASDAQ all other INDICES have broken down. Once NASDAQ COMPOSITE breaks (11,600-11,800) that too would signal a break down, which would drag it below 2022 lows. in INDIA, NIFTY BANK had been a key reason for this extended move, if that breaks below (42,800) that would be a reversal sign. Watch out for (42,800) very closely, we have been of the opinion that, BANKING INDEX is well poised for a dramatic turn on downside,but for now lets wait, until supports breaks.

NIFTY is not going as per expectations, it requires to register a REVERSAL to resume another leg lower. We have been sharing LEVELS which so far has held, but once those levels breaks we shall conform next major and furious move on downside. MARKETS have posted incremental upside above (17,863) but this has not changed the texture of overall structure. Yes in short-term as long as supports are held market can hold on, but beyond that nothing has changed. The downside risk has not at all gone off from any equation. “In beginning of APRIL we focused particularly on current quarter to fulfill our BEARISH objectives, we also posted that this would be a journey of 12,weeks, out of that we still have 8,more weeks to go, so enough TIME still left, once reversal is confirmed MARKETS can give up 4% rally of APRIL in just one week. We also have been concentrating on (INDIA VIX), the monthly close of APRIL is one of the lowest monthly close on (VIX). There has been very interesting coincidences with MARKET TOPS at very low level of volatility. Closer to 10 (VIX) is perfectly poised for a substantial move on upside. “that move should take (VIX) above 21 in next few weeks. This would get very interesting. According to TIME MARKET is in a critical TIME zone between 28th,APRIL to 8th,MAY, we would still look for reversal within this TIME zone. Now where would that reversal sign come? That zone have shifted higher to 17,800-17,850 on spot. Once market close below this zone, it should be over.

NIFTY with the exceed of (17,863) have pushed up PRICE breakdown point. Earlier breakdown was placed in the zone of (17,424-17,491) on spot, with todays move the levels have shifted higher to (17,550-17,650). Other then this nothing has changed. This certainly would not go well with the majority but we do have certain reasons to continue with our BEARISH view. The only thing which is holding up is breakdown point, PRICE have managed to hold its supports, once that breaks mentioned levels, we are likely to enter the phase of furious move on downside. So ideally we should break those support level next week. From tomorrow MARKET’S are entering very strong TIME window till 8th,MAY. Once these supports goes we shall witness TIME and PRICE breakdown. Global Markets as expected earlier have turned lower and have confirm their TOP. NIFTY is bit late but that too would turn down along with other MARKETS. Lets see, interesting days ahead.