NIFTY held the LOW of 10th,JULY on closing basis and that resulted a higher high above (19,530) so this completes the (HARMONIC CHANNEL) which we discussed on TUESDAY. We also discussed that things should stay fine until 14th,JULY, so that starts from TOMORROW. The entire PRICE structure could under-go some sort of a test until 1st,AUGUST. There are some kind of cracks developing in NIFTY BANK and FINNIFTY but was it due to HDFC? that we have to moniter in next few days. Technically both INDICES are not that strong as NIFTY. For NIFTY with todays move structure have mostly completed but that doesn’t mean MARKET should fall from here. Yes there is a pullback due but that too should resume once spot breaks (19,350) once that breaks, we shall discuss about that pullback in detail.

DELTACORP is down 25% overnight, this move have took everyone by surprise, this is certainly a crisis but as an opportunist we have to look for an opportunity here. A higher high above 202 would signal a pattern breakout for targets of 220 and 240. hexagon PATTERN is still positive here for 271 target holding 165, let’s see.

NIFTY as long as stays above yesterdays low on a closing basis should continue its upmove even in short term. In my post on 3rd,JULY I expected market to give a pullback on THURSDAY or FRIDAY markets gave that pullback but that was bit shallow. A higher high above (19,530) would complete a HARMONIC CHANNEL from lows of (18,646) NIFTY also completed a HEXAGON rotation in past week. It’s all so good so far. for now things could stay this way till 14th,JULY the decisive test for overall structure would take place between (14th,JULY to 1st,AUGUST) Plenty of things can happen within this TIME window would get in more detail as things starts to unfold.

UBL is giving early indication for a PATTERN breakout. For short term STOCK should test zone of (1,560-1,580) on cash. Once level of 1580 breaks STOCK would trigger a SQUARE OF 12 breakout which would signal an upmove till 1728 in coming days. The decline from 1806 culminated exactly at 90° angle at 1353, most likely it have registered a major low in APRIL. Going forward if it sustain above 1580 eventually it should take out 1806 till SEPTEMBER.

“The proof of the pudding is in the eating.” A mouthwatering dessert can sit before us, and we can believe our efforts created something sensational. But we don’t know if we’ve succeeded until a process plays itself out. As July commences, it may be too soon to draw a conclusion that our primary view on MARKETS is wrong. We are fine with that, we wont hesitate to accept that as well, but for that next few days would be extremely critical in broader context. On 28th,june I allready posted my view on a possiblity of another failed breakout above (18,604). But what, if we are wrong on that? In that case we are just begining a major move on upside which wont end within 10,or,15% of move. There are certain STOCKS which are not showing signs of a CYCLE breakout. So we want to be more watchfull for next few days. As far as trades are concerned We would look to enter longs closer to (19,050) with stops below (18,884) on spot. We are likely to get a dipp may be until thursday or friday. 1 very important point we should understand is, if MARKETS have registered a CYCLE breakout then in near future, say for next 18 to 24 months, NIFTY would never give a daily close below (18,604) for now let’s look to buy dips, with stops,

NIFTY have gone above (18,887) so we should get another reference high to work with. I allready discussed on this possiblity twice in last 15,days. As I repeatedly mentioned earlier things are likely to stay fine as long as (18,464) stays intact on spot ! This is an unfortunate thing that, dispite a second breakout attempt to move above (18,604) in last 21 months market still lacks that fire power to capitalise its move on upside. Let’s again see this time, looking at the internals that PATTERN is unlikely to change. The manner in which NIFTY have performed since early MAY has not been an appropriate move, specially for an OPTION buyer. MIDCAPS have done better but LARGECAPS have been lethargic. and there is a possiblity that such PRICE action on INDEX would continue as long as it manages to hold its supports. As I pointed out last time, there are only two options for this market, either it holds its supports and continue to do what it’s doing, or it breaks (18,464) and resume its incomplete decline, because without completing the decline this market can never get a CYCLE breakout. let’s see in last 10,years markets have only seen two CYCLE breakouts 1st was above (9,119) and another one was above (12,430) I believe we have to wait for 3rd one. In both prior instances market never tested its breakout zone for several years. PRICE action from here would be very intresting !

$S&P;500; have achieved the best beyond the best of what we discussed on 24th,MAY. We did expected (4,325) as a possible extended target on upside but market exceeded slightly above that till (4,450) going forward we are expecting U.S. MARKETS to put an annual TOP in zone of (4,450-4,500) if in case MARKETS have already TOPPED out on 16th,june then we should witness an imminent collaps of PRICES in days and weeks immediately ahead. If markets are reversing they should break some critical levels which should conform our view ! we are watching level of 4289 on a daily closing and 4180 on a weekly closing once market close below these levels that would be a convincing evidence for us to expect another leg lower in S&P which should drag PRICES below 3808 in near future. we are getting more conviction from changes in NATURAL CYCLES. going forward we are expecting abnormally higher voletility in markets which would Phlip the coin of extreme from UPSIDE to DOWNSIDE. Watch out for action to resume below (4,289) !

NIFTY with its erratic PRICE behaviour have put all INDEX traders on their toes. Our view had been that NIFTY should not make new high, but if it still makes a new high another high would again be within 1% of prior high. Practically NIFTY could repeat what (18,887) did to (18,604), other then that nothing is going to happen. MARKET can stay here for ages but a runaway BULL MARKET is unlikely to resume without a lower low below (15,183). Now the question is how would we reach there? Earlier we were working with JUNE as a possible deadline but that dint worked out as expected ! So from here we have to approach MARKETS as 1,step at a time. The initial breakdown at a higher degree would come only below (18,464) on spot, so until that actually happens, better to wait. We have a breakdown in NIFTY BANK so that should drag NIFTYY below its supports. Short term TIME CYCLES would turn BEARISH once MARKET closes below 19th,june low ! If it does not close below that expect markets to continue with their current trend !

KOTAK;BANK; after that artificial rally which was sponsored by foreigners have lost all its momentum. The decline from 2064-1815 clearly qualifies as a reversal move. STOCK have given a (SQUARING PATTERN) breakdown in previous week when it broke 1895. if for any reason stock retest its breakdown level, that upside should be sold for possible PATTERN targets of 1755 and 1695 on cash, stock will try it’s best to hold 1800 but that attempt will fail eventually.

MANAPPURAM; is the only stock in this market which have substantial upside possiblity, doesn’t matter where the headline indices go this STOCK is likely to do better in all market conditions. A perfect guy and hold candidate for next 6 months. STOCK is likely to print fresh 52,weeks highs in coming days. Technically all dips should be bought till 116 for near term target of 140 and medium term target of 175 long term projections here would be above 210 in next few months.