NIFTY challenged its OCTOBER high of 19,850 yesterday,
We did discussed this on WEDNESDAY,
Above 19,500 INDEX is likely to stay in good shape.
Today is a PRICE and TIME SQUARING DATE,
so todays high and low are going to be absolutely critical for coming days,
after today next PRICE and TIME SQUARING DATE for NIFTY will come on 13th,DECEMBER,
so todays range would hold greater significance.
If NIFTY sustains below todays low and break 19,500 on spot then that would trigger a very BEARISH setup.
which would indicate much lower levels,
Probably below 18,490 but need to have patience until that setup triggers.
As I have been saying since several days now dont pull the trigger until key levels are held.
So wait for now,
there would be some great opportunities in next few months.
In case NIFTY sustains above todays high and takes out 19,881 then that would indicate much higher levels,
Most likely above SEPTEMBER high.
So we should not miss that rally if that unfolds.
Now how that would fit within the CYCLE structure is a different thing that is not required to understand immediately,
there would be an appropriate TIME to discuss that.
There is no point discussing the theory of this and that,
Let’s go through the journey practically and see where things stands 6 to 8 months down the line.
Category: STOCK MARKETS
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY never registered a REVERSAL so todays gap higher is not something out of the BOX,
all key LOWS have been holding strongly since 3rd,NOVEMBER,
INDEX now awaits a significant PRICE&TIME SQUARING DATE which as we have been discussing will come on 17th,NOVEMBER,
As we discussed last time until markets are holding critical supports there are no short trades on offer,
We also discussed that 19,500 is a PRICE and TIME EQUALITY POINT,
if spot sustains above this level then there are BULLISH options.
So after todays GAP higher INDEX must stay above this level of 19,500,
Holding this level MIFTY should challenge the OCTOBER high of 19,850.
A tick below 19,500 would again put INDEX back in neutral zone,
More then INDIAN MARKETS we are more focused on U.S. MARKETS because that’s an exciting space to track.
The rally there has been more powerful then the rally here.
Hens we are closely watching how things goes there,
the setup there is intresting we were expecting a marginal breach of 4,420 and markets now have exceeded that,
So if that continues higher from here then that would challenge our medium term view.
The entire NOVEMBER rally has been on expected lines but now it should be at a terminal point,
This has been our view,
Let’s wait for market conformations.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE REVERSAL ROADMAP
NASDAQ;COMPOSITE; had a turn date on 27th,OCTOBER,
and we have seen a very sharp turn higher from those LOWS.
the rally from LOW of 12,543 has been sharp,
straight,
and strong,
But unfortunately this move again would end up as an apportunity to again sell at higher levels.
NASDAQ during the year has done remarkably well,
Infact NASDAQ is the only outperforming index in entire U.S. MARKET,
Just to put things in prospective,
the broad RUSSELL 2000 INDEX have broken below its OCTOBER,2022 LOW.
So entire U.S. MARKET outside headline INDICES have broken very badly,
So just dont fall for false BULLISH narratives watching DJI S&P or specially NASDAQ,
it’s a deadly trap which would burst in coming months.
BUBBLES are easy to point after the crash takes place,
but very tough to call before the crash actually unfolds.
There is always a process to be followed to predict and trade such major moves,
So let’s discuss the short term setup after the recent rally.
first of all 6th,NOVEMBER was a key CYCLE date,
so the intraday low of that days low at 13,435 is going to be extremely important.
A daily close below 13,435 would signal the end of this rally,
Once it signals that it should test the HEXAGON support of 13,250,
If 13,250:also breaks then INDEX should continue lower till 12,851,
which would complete the HEXAGON rotation.
The crack down would take place below 12,851 which should carry the INDEX down till earlier shared levels of 12,477 and 12,100,
So dont hope for things to happen,
follow the process step by step.
NOVEMBER,16,
17,
and,
28,
are upcoming turn dates here.
$S&P;500; UPDATE
$S&, P;500; have given a very sharp bounce from its LOWS of 27th,OCTOBER,
Technically we achieved all our objectives at those lows,
we did discussed this in our review here on 27th,OCTOBER the same day when it registered its LOW from which it produced a 6% bounce.
the rally wasn’t surprising to us,
we were expecting a rally,
but the magnitude and intensity of this rally was higher then our anticipation.
So for short term there are some BULLISH options to work with,
but we would prefer to have a conservative approach,
We are closely watching the LOW of 3rd,NOVEMBER,
which was a turn date here,
as long as INDEX can avoid a daily close below that days low we are not going to expect an immediate reversal.
On upside everyone is watching for 4,415-4,420 zone which along with a golden ratio also happens to be a strong Gann angle.
We suspect that,
Holding 4,320 INDEX can exceede this all important level of 4,420 marginally before terminating this rally.
TIME wise tomorrow 9th,NOVEMBER is a key CYCLE date,
after 9th,
13th,
14th,
24th and 27th,NOVEMBER are very strong CYCLE DATES.
For medium term test of 3,808 is almost certain.
but for short term we have to deal with complex rallies.
Let’s see,
next 6 to 8 trading sessions would be very important.
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY is yet to conform next leg lower officially.
As we discussed on last FRIDAY,
to resume the trend lower NIFTY have to give a daily close below FRIDAYS low,
so far that has not happenned,
Hens for immediate term there is nothing on offer on short side.
BETTER to wait for conformations.
17th,NOVEMBER is next PRICE TIME SQUARE DATE for NIFTY,
so the LOW of 3rd,NOVEMBER would stay critical till 17th,NOVEMBER.
Earlier we shared positional Target of 18,490,
Since we did not got the reversal this week,
it’s unlikely that we get there till 17th,
We should get there till end of NOVEMBER,
but we would be more interested in trading that move rather anticipating it.
Once spot breaks 19,140-19,200 zone we are going to put in very aggressive trades on short side.
Currently we are not going to pull the trigger,
no matter how confident we are.
Next few days are going to be very critical for over all texture of markets.
NIFTY on price front too is at a very important resistance point.
from its top of 15th,SEPTEMBER to todays date of 8th,NOVEMBER,
the PRICE and TIME EQUALITY for NIFTY is coming at level of 19,500.
So this is going to be a very critical resistance point,
If it sustains above 19,500 then there are some BULLISH options,
Let’s see how it reacts there.
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY have PRICE and TIME SQUARING DATE today,
since past several days we have discussed 3rd,NOVEMBER as a very important CYCLE date for near term.
So as discussed earlier,
we would closely moniter todays intraday LOW:
A daily close below todays LOW would officially resume next leg lower for MARKETS.
as posted earlier as well,
we have been expecting next round of selloff from next week,
so far things are in place for that,
but still let’s wait for official confirmations.
We are working with target objectives of 18,490 on downside.
It’s only a matter of TIME when we get there.
A reversal next week would take us there till 17th, which is next PRICE and TIME SQUARING DATE.
If not then,
We could see some more bounce and then a reversal which shall take NIFTY down till 18,490 till late NOVEMBER.
so lets see.
We have turn date today for S&P as well.
So the recent rally is going to be challenged by TIME from today.
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY would indicate early collaps if it goes below 18,920 on spot.
Ideally it should hold till friday but In case 18,920 is broken today or tomorrow then that would straight away open up Targets of 18,710 and 18,490 immediately ahead.
We have been expecting NIFTY to make a hard turn lower anytime after 3rd,NOVEMBER,
but if breakdown is happening before that,
we would have to chase that.
FRIDAY still would be a very significant CYCLE DATE for near term.
Let’s see what markets does in next 48 hours.
NIFTY UPDATE
NIFTY found a near term base at its LOWS of 26th,OCTOBER.
as posted earlier next major CYCLE date for NIFTY is on 3rd,NOVEMBER,
which also would be its PRICE and TIME SQUARING DATE from june 2022 lows.
For NIFTY price of 19,150 would square out with TIME on 3rd,NOVEMBER.
So for now atleast till FRIDAY we need more kind of a sideways market.
Next leg lower for NIFTY would resume once market close below FRIDAYS LOW,
Beyond near term,
We got a structural breakdown in past week.
which do have downside target objectives of 18,490.
which would coinside with next HEXAGON TARGET,
We may get this during NOVEMBER.
The month of NOVEMBER is one of those rare months in which we have 2 (PRICE and TIME SQUARING DATES),
1st on 3rd and another on 17th.
AUBANK UPDATE
AUBANK stayed under the high of 28th,SEPTEMBER which was a very important CYCLE DATE here.
We shared our view here on 4th,October,
We had no doubt that STOCK has broken down,
We were working with targets of 666 and 640 on cash,
AND today STOCK have printed both levels on downside.
Going forward we would expect STOCK to take a pause for now,
And after some consolidation it should resume and test levels of 600 possibly till late NOVEMBER.
AS I posted last time,
Nothing good happens below 45° ANGLE.
AXISBANK view
AXISBANK on its 20th,SEPTEMBER high have squared out its PRICE from SEPTEMBER 2022 and MARCH 2023 Lows With TIME.
The PRICE ACTION from that high have reliable indications for a significant trend reversal.
We believe that as the month of NOVEMBER progresses we should get lower lows here.
The recent low of 951 is very important,
but looking at CYCLES we expect that to break and once that breaks,
we should get levels of 907 and 867 in next few days.
