EXIT POLE projections are out  and that has veen in line with what market was expecting.


markets expectations for NDA was between 370-400  and EXIT POLES on an average have given the projections of 361 in favor of NDA.


so on 4th,june if NDA scores around 360 then that would satisfy markets as far as expectations are conserned.


Anything under 350 would be slightly negative for MARKETS.
Lets see, as of now its only projections  so the EVENT risk still would continue to persist  atleast till Tuesday afternoon.

If in case NDA gets above 400 then that would be a positive surprise for markets.


for markets during the course of next 2 days more then its technical setup direction would entirely depend on how much more can NDA get above that 350 mark.


atleast till Wednesday afternoon or till Thursday morning election results shall dominate market trends,


but post thursday morning markets would move forward from elections and markets should get bac to basics.

Anyways at the end of the day markets moves on corporate earnings.
Yes political equations does matter to some extent  but above everything else for long term its always earnings which drives STOCKS higher or lower.

If you dig in further   then earnings too moves in CYCLES just like everything else in this world.

before i come to NIFTY levels would like to make one final point here

for the first time in indias history we have seen top  government officials openly and publicly commenting on markets reaction on election results day.
Since elections started on 19th,APRIL we have seen  PRIME MINISTER, FINANCE MINISTER and even HOME MINISTER in their several interviews reluctantly saying that MARKET would break all records on 4th,june,


SO there must have been some arrangements done for that we dont know what exactly they have planned but it would be intresting to see how top officials intent to manage markets.
Next 48,hours shall be intresting and exciting.

Anyways lets move on and discuss critical levels to track on NIFTY

https://ganninsides.com/2024/05/26/setup-for-the-final-week-before-that-all-important-election-results/

Last week we discussed 2 support levels for NIFTY

1,was 22908 on closing basis  and 2,was 22786 on spot which was a pattern support.

During the week we saw NIFTY breaking both its supports and turn lower towards its pattern objective of 22575,
Our next downside objective was 22355 but it dint went there and because I have said in last weeks post itself that whatever trades you have  look to exit them on 31st,MAY,
Obviously you cannot go in an EVENT with one sided unhedged trades,
and for investors i also advocated to hedge portfolios with SEPTEMBER puts.
If you have done that then carry on with those puts,
because those puts would make a lot of sense once this election dust settles down.

For next week levels are unlikely to make sense till Wednesday but still on upside 22850 is going to be a key pivot,
above 22850 we would be looking for further higher highs closer towards 23400-23,600.
Lets see how markets open tomorrow.

gann insides weekly MARKET UPDATE!

NIFTY on friday achieved our projected target objective of 23025 on spot.
Now supports have shifted higher to 22786 from 22550.
So all long trades now would continue with this reviced stop.
holding 22786 INDEX should continue with its uptrend atleast till 23270.
A break of 22786 would put INDEX again in a sideways trend.
A strong uptrend ideally should not overlap within its previous highs.

other then that because friday was a cycle date if INDICES starts to close below fridays lows then that would be the TIME to turn cautious on long trades.

TIME wise next major cycle dates now falls on 4th&5th of june.

Meanwhile this week would be the final week before that all important election results which are due on 4th,june.
Everyone is expecting markets to rally sharply post results but as professional traders we have to be prepared for all possible outcomes.

Strategicly on 31st of MAY  I had adviced all my clients to cover all speculative positions which had been taken on back of certain anticipations and at the same tine look to hedge portfolios using SEPTEMBER puts.
see emotions and expectations are fine,


but when it comes to trading positions  we would have to get slightly practical because in market our money is our responsibility everything else is secondary!

S&P is juggling around that 5350 mark

S&P;500 has been  juggling under its significant gann angle resistance of 5350, i have been discussing this level of 5350 since late MARCH and dispite all the voletility which we have seen over during past 2 months INDEX have continued to persist under this all important level of 5350!

the week gone by was largely sideways accept that big down day which occured on Thursday, but week on week there was nothing much to look into.


the underperformence of DJI was overshadowed by outperformence in NASDAQ,
which technicaly kept S&P unchanged.
Intrestingly the new all time high on DOW INDUSTRIALS was yet again unconfirmed by DOW TRANSPORTS.
this unfortunately is not a good sign  wont go in exact technical details here,   but this is something to pay attention.


Reeders must had been aware on DOW THEORY,

the entire concept of DOW THEORY was classically founded on performance of DJI and DJT.
GOOGLE more you would exactly understand what divergence between both these INDICES means?

On TIME front last week we discussed 24th,MAY as a critical CYCLE DATE so if INDICES starts to sustain and close below 24th,MAY intraday lows that would signal a trend change for short term.
Holding those lows INDICES are likely to stay UP and fine.
On PRICE front for S&P 5250 is a key support once that breaks we would be looking for a test of 5171 on S&P cash..

lets end this with the near term view on GOLD

GOLD is having an intresting setup, based on its recent price action and its current pattern placement there is a possiblity for a sizable pullback here in coming days.
On downside 2320 is an important support if it sustains below 2320 then we could see levels of 2255 and 2185 in coming weeks.

based on my experience a declining GOLD usually adds pressure on EQUITY MARKETS.
so do watch out.

thats it for now  thanks for reeding   wishing everyone a great week ahead.

when things are working fine  you dont want to over analyse markets and make things complicated for yourself and your subscribers.

As reeders of this post are well aware  that my view on MARKETS has been slightly BEARISH since early MARCH, and we had deployed multiple bearish strategies using OPTIONS to accommodate our view.
Since early APRIL  our focus has been on selling FUTURES.
as i write this post, i and several of my clients have been heavily short, and during the upmove during late APRIL we have substantialy added fresh positions.

every individual have a different risk appetite so i have  to communicate on position sizing to each trader individually.

coming back to near term approach now

Tomorrow on 13th,may  we have a minor cycle date for NIFTY  If NIFTY gives a daily close below tomorrows low then this time it certainly would break 21700 and once that breaks it would register a medium term reversal  which would have severe implications for next few months.

On upside pattern resistance have drifted lower to 22350.
As long as INDEX stays under 22350 its good to move lower towards 21865 and 21640 on spot.
TIME wise next week 13th and 16th would be critical CYCLE DATEs.

both these dates of 13th and 16th would have their different characteristics because they both represents different CYCLES.
those who have understood these cycles using my methods they would easily understand the difference between various cycles, but if you are someone who is not aware on the basic concepts then for you its not that easy to get-in with whats going on, or whats about to go on in coming days!

when it comes to U-S-INDICES they have been slowly inching higher,  as discussed earlier holding 6th,may lows on closing basis all INDICES would continue with their positive trend.


New high cant be ruled out, but for s&p price expansion above 5300 5350 is going to be a real challenge.
Because that happens to be a major gann angle resistance on monthly charts.

Lets see , intresting week coming up!

“SUMMARY”

This week we completed 3 weeks of TIME duration from Lunar Eclipse which occured on 25th,MARCH.
I shared a detailed post on 24th,MARCH explaining the impact and its consequences on prevailing trend.
I posted very clearly that eclipses always produce REVERSAL of ongoing trend but it would take TIME of atleast 3,weeks before we see that vibrational impact to reflect on prices!

We also discussed that  , this anticipated REVERSAL would not be limited to just PRICE it would expand beond PRICE and would also trigger a REVERSAL on overall accessive BULLISH naretive which have been one of the primary factor behind the strong rally from October lows.

So as expected we got everything which we were looking for.
Just for reference sharing the linc for 24th,MARCH article below.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/03/24/could-lunar-eclips-spark-a-minsky-moment-in-financial-markets/

lets start with U-S-INDICES

“S&P”

S&P;500 almost achieved our primary target of 4950 at fridays low.
So the pattern which broke below 5060 tested its primary goal  going forward a daily close below 4950 would extend the decline towards its next pattern target of 4840 on downside  a failure to close below 4950 would generate a bounce in near term! For s&p price time equality level from October 2023 low comes at 5006 so going forward consider 5006 as a line in sand between week and a very week setup.
Since 5006 is a price and time equality level technical setup would evolve around this level for next few days.
In case index maintains distance from 5006 then next equality level on downside will come at 4700!


In late MARCH when S&P was making new highs on daily basis i kept discussing on a distinct possibility for a significant reversal because on monthly charts INDEX was testing a major gann angle resistance which was in zone of 5250-5350  and we saw INDEX top out at 5265.

“NASDAQ”

along with S&P  NASDAQ too have broken down.
In MARCH  I have discussed 16500 as a major resistance and we have seen index after taking its time reverse down very sharply.
A break of 15800 here triggered a higher degree breakdown which have medium term target objective of 14500 on downside.
do watch out for NVIDIA as well  739 is a very critical level for long term a close below 739 would trigger a noteworthy collapse which could drag stock below 350 in next few months.
We shall see together how it would impact overall markets.

both these indices have not only broken below their critical supports, along with that they also have broken below an ascending flat topping pattern which was developing since early march.
A breakdown of such category is going to vring markets much lower then their current levels.
So be prepared for that as an investor.
but as a trader we would have to approach things one step at a time.

“update on NIFTY”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/04/07/gann-insides-weekly-market-update-for-subscribers/

As noted in above post which was shared on 7th,APRIL I was looking for a test of 22800 before anticipating a REVERSAL  and on expected lines NIFTY went to 22775 on 10th,APRIL and registered a very sharp reversal in subsequent days.
it almost lost 1000 points from its high in just 6 trading sessions!

Going forward as we have been discussing since past few days  this decline from the TOP still isn’t enough to trigger a medium term reversal in market.
To trigger a reversal of that magnitude  NIFTY would have to break levels of 21710-21530 on spot.
A break below this range would trigger a breakdown of an ascending flat topping pattern  which is under development since mid Feb.
U-S-INDICES have already broken this pattern  but on NIFTY we are still waiting for that final confirmation to come through!

For short term as we discussed on Friday

https://ganninsides.com/2024/04/19/all-eyes-on-21710-now-which-happens-to-be-the-final-level-of-support-for-nifty/

holding 21710 there was a recovery due towards its resistance of 22100.
and it did got a remarkable recovery which even exceeded above that resistance level.

still 22100 would remain a key level, because thats still a price and time equality level from the high of 22775.
So as far as index restraints from a daily close below 22100 the possiblity of an imminent collapse wont be on offer for now.
Anyways the hexagon pattern which we discussed on Friday is still intact on weekly charts.
Lets see whether that breaks during next week or not!

RELIANCE is going to be very critical stock for next week.
because the market reaction on its results on 23rd,april would co-inside with an annual time cycle date for NIFTY  both 23rd and 24th,APRIL are going to be very important cycle dates for not only NIFTY but for overall market as well!

Thats it for now.

gann insides weekly market update

INDIAN MARKETS,had a strong week  but continuing this trend in coming days is going to be challenging.

Next week would be a busy week on HEAVEN’S with SOLAR ECLIPS on MONDAY  and some rare conjunction of outer planets on Wednesday!

we are still within that 3 week window post lunar eclipse which we discussed earlier  still we wont see that impact during next week as well.
actual impact would be visible only from the week starting from  15th,APRIL.

so lets check out how key major INDICES are placed technically.

“TECHNICAL UPDATE on INDICES”

“NIFTY BANK”

NIFTY BANK has recieved the recent push higher on back of strength on HDFC BANK , other then that Internal components of INDEX doesnt have much strength.
Technically 48636 the DECEMBER high would act as a major resistance.
Once that vreaks we could see INDEX Testing its monthly gan angle resistance which currently is placed at 49500 on cash!

On HDFC,BANK  i posted on 9th MARCH  that above 1471 we could see the price expansion on upside.
All,though this upside still consists all elements of a counter trend rally we would approach the setup watchfully.
I would expect this move to limit under 1580.
Lets see.
medium term target of 1270 is still intact here!

“NIFTY”

On NIFTY as I have discussed during the week  4th and 5th,APRIL were  critical CYCLE DATE and we got a very sharp swings on 4th,APRIL   on both sides.  Going forward a daily close beond 4th,APRIL range would generate a good tradable move for near term! A failure to go through beond 4th,APRIL range would keep overall trend on INDICES absolutely sideways and this could persist this way for next 2 weeks atleast!

On upside there is not much room beond 22600 but still once 4th,APRIL high is crossed we could get NIFTY around 22800 before REVERSAL actually kicks in!

broadly until and unless the PATTERN of ascending flat TOP stays operational we as traders would not get any multi beggar trade on NIFTY.  this flat TOP PATTERN is visible not only on NIFTY  similar PATTERN is there on all U-S-INDICES and even on BITCOIN as well! Historicly such patterns  always breaks with some unfriendly market development which  noone ever expected! 2020 was one such example.
Lets see this TIME!

such patterns are always difficult to trade.

absolute patience is required to trade specially the vreakdown part.
because that sometimes take more time then one would expect!

“S&P:500”

S&P after thursdays selloff have broken key swing lows  but pattern supports are still intact.
5050-5120 is very important support which would have to break for a dramatic turn lower.
On monthly charts INDEX is turning lower after testing its gann angle resistance.

the CPI PRINT due on 10th,APRIL would be a major catalyst for overall trend analysis.
I think that can drag INDEX  below its supports.

Will leave it here for now!

Gann INSIDES weekly MARKET UPDATE

“SUMMARY”

the week gone by was a normal week for INDIAN MARKETS  where NIFTY and BROADER MARKET  cooled off their highly oversold technical reedings post recovery from Wednesday’s LOWS!  but for U-S-MARKETS it was yet another week of fresh record highs  which marginally accelerated the rally post FOMC meat!

this week our focus would be on global MARKETS specificlly on U-S-MARKETS and other risk assets like BITCOIN and GOLD.

next week  we have LUNAR ECLIPS on MONDAY which is a key development for all FINANCIAL ASSETS let’s discuss on that below.

the (LUNAR,ECLIPS) this MONDAY could gradually Phlip the narrative from extremely optimistic to extremely pessimistic. but that would take TIME for atleast some days.
ECLIPSES are always very strong COSMIC EVENTS which brings notable changes on MARKET trends.
unfortunately many analysts over the years have failed to acknowledge the role of an ECLIPS on overall MARKET analysis.
people have always looked for an instant reaction to conclude the impact of an ECLIPS  but in reality it takes around 2 to 3 weeks of TIME before we see that VIBRATIONAL impact to reflect on PRICES!

as human beings we always lack that patience to wait until complete impact of an ECLIPS is reached.
if you go and check any ECLIPS post 3 weeks we always would get a MARKET REVERSAL not only on PRICE but also on sentiments and narratives as well!

No need to go much far  just go and check what happenned post SOLAR and LUNAAR ECLIPSES of OCTOBER 2023

always remember these ECLIPSES historiclly have always occurred before significant trend shifts.

prepare for one such trend shift in next few weeks which would have its IMPACT till SEPTEMBER of 2024!

“UPDATE on NIFTY”

Nifty  Setup is very much simple!  On thursday I shared level off 22,150 as an ideal rebound level in a normal sinario!  and on FRIDAY MARKET easily achieved that!  things should get really intresting from tuesday  if NIFTY have ended its recovery at fridays high then next week it should break level of 21,840 on downside  once that break short term PATTERNS would trigger fresh breakdown for target objectives of 21,625 and 21,400 on spot!

Note 21,600 is a channel support on weekly charts!  Once that breaks on a weekly closing basis then this entire advance from OCTOBER 2023 lows would officially come to an end  how much low it can go post that conformation is something we shall discuss some other day! As traders we shall approach things one step at a TIME!

“KEY LEVELS to watch on S&P;500 “

S&P throughout last few days successfully defended the level of 5050 which we were discussing as a final support  a break of that would certainly signal the end of this entire advance which started from OCTOBER 2023!  need to have patience until that breaks!

On MONTHLY charts S&P have entered in a very strong GANN ANGLE resistance zone currently  these monthly ANGLES are placed in zone of 5250-5350  if INDEX stays under 5350 going forward and breaks the intraday low of 18th,MARCH on a closing basis  then that would signal a TIME CYCLE REVERSAL  because 18th,MARCH was a “PRICE TIME SQUARING DATE”  for S&P we discussed on this in past week as well!

On TIME front next week 27th and 28th MARCH are going to be very important ANNUAL CYCLE dates for not only S&P but for all U-S-INDICES!so expect some sharp moves on these dates!

until one of the above criterias are met INDEX can continue with it’s current consolidation at highs!

“BITCOIN”

Over the last few years, digital currencies and , gold,  have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites!  Of course, it is not just a speculative frenzy in the markets for stocks, specifically anything related to “artificial intelligence,” but that exuberance has spilled over into gold and cryptocurrencies!

Technically BITCOIN have an important support at 60,000$ on downside  once that breaks we could get BITCOIN below 45000 in next few weeks! if 60,000 breaks then MARCH 14th high could hold for next couple of years! do watch out very closely!

Unfortunately, for individuals once again piling into Bitcoin to chase rising prices, if, or when, the market corrects, the decline in cryptocurrencies will likely substantially outpace the decline in market-based equities. This is particularly the case as Wall Street can now short the spot-Bitcoin ETFs, creating additional selling pressure on Bitcoin.

“GOLD”

Gold was supposed to be an inflation hedge. Yet, in 2022, gold prices fell as the market declined and inflation surged to 9%. However, as inflation has fallen and the stock market surged, so has gold. now when STOCK MARKETS are expected to turn lower   would GOLD be able to continue with its BULLISH momentum?

Technically 2225 high is a good enough resistance which shall hold  but as long as COMEX GOLD holds 2100 on downside   things are likely to stay fine for now!   Once 2100 breaks we could get GOLD towards 2030 and 1960 in next few days!  TIME wise 2nd half of APRIL is going to be very critical!

would leave it here for now  wishing all reeders a colorful festival greetings from me and my team.

SIDEWAYS WEEK FOR INDIAN MARKETS.

NIFTY had a dull week where accept TUESDAY and THURSDAY no major volatility was seen.
Although new highs were made which we did discussed on last SUNDAY,
but the lackluster PRICE ACTION at highs with absolutely no MOMENTUM actually leaves less scope for PRICE EXPANSION on upside.
Still we have been working with a target of 22,325,
but for some reasons INDEX has so far failed to achieve that target.
let’s see next week.

I have described this entire upmove as a TRAP and so far the overall PRICE ACTION have completely confirmed that.
here we all need to understand the objective of a TRAP!  we cannot have a TRAP for a tiny higher high above a prior high.
we so far have not even got a 1% move on upside above the previous high of 22,126.
so all said and done  as long as NIFTY spot stays above 21,800-22,000 higher highs are more likely.

MARKET MOVING WEEK ON TIME FRONT

TIME wise NEXT WEEK NIFTY would enter in its 49th week from MARCH 2023 LOW,
this is an important TIME development since this is happening on WEEKLY T/F.
DURING the WEEK dates of 26th 28th and 29th could generate peak VIBRATIONS.
26th specificlly because that’s an ANNUAL CYCLE DATE.
From 1st week of MARCH the overall intensity of MARKETS would reach at totally at a different level because on monthly T/F in MARCH all global INDICES would aline more then 4 CYCLES from various LOWS.
WOULD discuss this in greater detail in next weekly post.

U-S-INDICES reached fresh highs post Q4 print from NVIDIA.

Despite one selloff after another leading to increased volatility, the markets are currently hitting all-time highs as the speculative chase for return heats up.
“I am not a fan of Soros, but this market has the look and feel of the dot com bust of 2000. In a few short words, the AI investment phenomenon is feeding on itself just as the internet and fiber did in 1999.
If you have been following me since OCTOBEr,
I layed down a small possiblity of NASDAQ going for a BUBBLE.
I also said this at that TIME as well  that it’s easy to refer MARKET BUBBLES after they are BURSTED but very tough to call them in real time.
In DECEMBER when NASDAQ broke above JULY high the possiblity of a MARKET BUBBLE actually confirmed.

I dont want to repeat all those things which various X accounts are putting up on daily basis.
INDICES are more concentrated on handful of tech and AI STOCKS everyone knows that,
that’s an easy thing to do!!
let’s do something which is not easy!

TECHNICAL UPDATE

In my previous weekly UPDATE I shared the date of 20th FEBRUARY as an important CYCLE DATE.


I also posted very clearly that to hint a TOP INDICES have to close below the INTRADAY LOW of 20th,FEBRUARY.
MARKETS fell on 20th but failed to close below that days LOW.
GOING FORWARD the faith of this AI MARKET rally lies entirely on 20th FEB LOW.
Only a daily close below 20th FEB LOW would confirm a TOP of this MARKET at much higher degree of trend.
If you prefer to follow the trend then have patience until this happens.

On PRICE front PRICE-TIME-EQUALITY LEVELS for S&P and NASDAQ are placed at 5010 and 15,600 respectively.
As long as these levels are held higher highs are likely.
On TIME FRONT next week would be 50th week from 2023 lows.
So volatility should further pick up,
specificlly DATES of 26th 28th and 1st MARCH would be critical CYCLE DATES during the week.

so all in all an intresting week coming up.
see you guys next week with a weekly preview.
thanks for reeding and BEST WISHES for the week ahead.