https://ganninsides.com/2024/08/30/navigating-the-market-key-support-levels-and-cycle-date/

“September has opened on a bearish note for financial markets, as anticipated. As I’ve previously mentioned, I expected a significant market reversal starting around September 2nd in Indian markets and September 3rd in U.S. indices. This week’s market decline, following the major cycle resistance on the time front, aligns with these predictions. If our calculations are accurate, this week’s downturn is just a precursor to a more substantial market decline. While the road ahead may be volatile, the overall implications remain bearish.”

So “Let’s cut to the chase and discuss the levels.”

NIFTY

https://ganninsides.com/2024/09/05/niftys-recent-gann-cycle-date-and-outlook/

“A breach of the 25,000 level on the Nifty 50, coupled with a surge in the INDIA VIX to 15.2, indicates a potential technical breakdown. Near-term price targets for this breakdown are estimated at 24,755 and 24,522. If the index consistently closes below these levels, it could signal a more pronounced decline, potentially reaching 24,200 or lower without a significant rebound.”

“To trigger a sustained decline, a multi-pattern breakdown on weekly charts would be essential. Currently, the Square of 9 support for NIFTY is at 24,320, and the Hexagon Pattern support is at 24,020. Therefore, NIFTY would need to close below 24,020 on a weekly basis to initiate a multi-pattern breakdown. To reverse the underlying bullish trend that has been in place since October 2023, NIFTY will need to break below these support levels. Failure to do so would maintain the current trend.  I discussed this in early August as well. At that time, the index narrowly avoided a breakdown on its weekly charts, and the subsequent events are well-documented in recent history.”

On TIME front Critical cycle dates for Indian and GLOBAL MARKETS would be on September 13 19 20 and 24

S&P;500

https://ganninsides.com/2024/08/25/market-setup-and-outlook-for-next-week/

“The S&P 500 has been quite intriguing. In my August 25th post, I mentioned a potential resistance level at 5675. The index approached this level closely before turning sharply lower on its critical cycle date of September 3rd. It’s encouraging that it didn’t break above its previous high.”

“Initially, I didn’t anticipate a new high for the S&P and Nasdaq. However, as the indices approached that level, my team and I, as analysts, had to consider alternative scenarios. Interestingly, the alternative path we identified also resolved to the downside after a brief upward surge. A key factor influencing our analysis was our close study of time cycles. These cycles indicated a significant trend change on July 11, which aligned with the S&P reaching its peak on that date.”

Based on our analysis of historical market data, we identified two significant low points: October 13, 2022 (3492) and October 27, 2023 (4103). By applying a proprietary mathematical model that considers both temporal and cyclical patterns, we were able to predict a key turning point on July 11.
there is nothing in this world which cannot be proved mathematically.

Give it a try if you are a gann student.”

“Now that the index has rolled over from a lower high, our obvious downside target would be its August low of 5119 in the next few days. Expect increased volatility starting from September 11th, but eventually, the market will likely drift lower. Utilize sharp pullbacks to sell.”

YEN

“USDJPY is poised to break below its August low, which could further fuel market sell-offs. My previous target of 135 remains unchanged, as outlined in my August 25 post.”

“Given the expected market downturn, now is the time to reassess your investment strategy. Consider diversifying your portfolio and potentially scaling back on riskier assets. Stay informed and prepared for the challenges ahead.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/08/20/nifty-update-361/

“This week is particularly crucial for NIFTY. As I previously discussed, to sustain the bullish momentum that began in January, NIFTY must reach a new high by either August 26th or 27th. If a new high is established by Tuesday, the underlying structure will remain firmly supportive. In such a scenario, any pullbacks, regardless of their severity, will likely be bought, and the uptrend will continue indefinitely or at least until the current momentum loses its strength.”

Let’s observe market movements during the first half of this week. Technically, markets are positioned for a new high. However, if this high occurs after the 27th or 28th, it might not be as bullish as it seems.
As mentioned earlier, the major trading opportunity is expected in the next two months of September and October. It’s advisable to be prepared for this event.”

Major support for NIFTY lies in the zone of 24,500-24,600 on spot. As long as this support zone holds, we can expect further higher highs in the near term. Time-wise, we have a minor cycle date on August 28th and the major cycle date on September 2nd. The major move I’ve been discussing would likely kick in after this cycle date of September 2nd. That’s going to be very interesting for all of us as traders.

“Honestly, we haven’t reached a point where we can confidently defy the current market trend and make significant profits. There’s a specific time for such bold moves, and right now isn’t it. Until that opportune moment arrives, it’s wiser to focus on the current bullish trend. I’m sure many of you recall my contrarian stance in late July, when I strongly suggested taking bearish positions. The market’s subsequent behavior was truly remarkable to watch and trade. Similarly, on August 5th, when the market was experiencing a sharp sell-off, I clearly stated that if the downturn were to intensify, all indices would need to break below the intraday low of that day.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/08/05/nifty-feels-the-heat/

“A failure to break below the August 5th low would likely have led to a pullback across all assets. However, as anticipated, Indian indices held above this level, and markets experienced a significant recovery.”

“When discussing a historic recovery, it’s important to consider the recovery in U.S. indices as well.”

In my earlier posts, I had shared targets of 5200 and 15800 on S&P and NASDAQ, respectively. The indices tested those levels and staged a very smart recovery. A retracement was certainly expected, but we were not expecting a fresh high. Although fresh highs have not yet been printed, S&P has almost reached there. NASDAQ is still at some distance from its high. So, during the next few days, we will have to monitor both these indices very closely. Because if S&P manages to make a new high while NASDAQ fails to make a new high, that would trigger an inter-market divergence, which again would not be a sign of a healthy market.

“The S&P 500 may face resistance at 5675. If this level is breached, a further rally toward 5800 could ensue. For NASDAQ, the July high of 18671 could act as a resistance level. NVIDIA’s earnings report on Wednesday evening could be a significant market mover.”

https://ganninsides.com/2024/07/28/development-in-global-equity-and-forex-markets-would-derail-the-uptrend-in-indian-markets/

“Markets have recently become more sensitive to fluctuations in the Japanese yen. I discussed the significance of the yen and the carry trade concept in my previous posts in late July, just before the recent market volatility.”

A yen value below 144 poses a significant risk to all risky assets. If the yen sustains below 143, it could trigger margin calls globally, leaving little time for market participants to react. This could lead to a rapid decline in market values, potentially resulting in a 10-15% loss within a few days. Technically, we anticipate a potential decline to 135 by January. If this level is breached, we could see further weakness, potentially reaching 120 by late 2025. Additionally, a break of the August low in September would be a particularly negative signal for equity markets. Therefore, it’s crucial to monitor the yen closely.

Along with yen Equity markets would be kept under pressure from falling intrest rates as well.
Yes you read that correct.
Lets discuss key points below

One of the primary concerns is the potential for inflationary pressures. When interest rates are lowered, it becomes cheaper for businesses and consumers to borrow money. This increased borrowing can fuel demand, leading to higher prices for goods and services. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of currency, making investments less valuable in real terms. For stock market investors, this can translate to lower returns and a decrease in the overall attractiveness of equity investments. In addition, interest rate cuts can have a negative impact on the banking sector. Lower interest rates reduce the profitability of banks, as they earn less on their loans. This can lead to a decline in lending activity, which can hinder economic growth and ultimately harm the stock market. Moreover, a weaker banking system can increase systemic risk, making the entire financial system more vulnerable to shocks.

While interest rate cuts can provide a short-term boost to the stock market, the long-term consequences can be far more damaging. The potential for inflation, moral hazard, and banking sector instability outweigh the benefits. Investors should be cautious about relying solely on interest rate cuts as a catalyst for stock market gains. A more sustainable approach to investing involves careful consideration of underlying economic fundamentals, company valuations, and the broader macroeconomic environment.

thats it for now.
will sign off for now by wishing everyone a HAPPY JANMASHTAMI

https://ganninsides.com/2024/07/28/development-in-global-equity-and-forex-markets-would-derail-the-uptrend-in-indian-markets/

DEVELOPMENT in GLOBAL EQUITY and FOREX MARKETS actually derailed the uptrend in INDIAN MARKETS.

As i noted in above post  the uptrend in indian markets was not sustainable.
I did spelled out multiple reasons to back that thought process.

I very clearly said that dispite a 500 point upmove of 26th,july upsides on NIFTY is limited and I am no longer intrested in taking long trades.
many of my followers didn’t liked that view but unfortunately i couldn’t help them out.

but now one week down the line many would had realised the whole thought process.
Technicaly we were closely looking for the resistance of 25200 on spot.
INDEX went till 25078   and after that price registered a strong REJECTION  and going forward this REJECTION could gradually turn out a meaningful REVERSAL.


would still take some time for that but that process should be underway.

for short term on price front we could see NIFTY dropping towards 24520 and 24210 on spot in coming days,
and on TIME front 5th,August is going to be a very important cycle date.
if markets starts to sustain below the intraday low of 5th,August then that would make the setup extremely bearish and with that kind of setup for NIFTY it would be easy to break the significant support of 24000.

Lets see  or now mondays low would be of paramount importance for us.

Global markets were extremely in a risk off mode this week specialy Japanese markets and U-S-MARKETS.
NIFTY on other hand was relatively stable.

So lets review the global setup below.

U-S-INDICES first

As i discussed in previous weeks post  we were looking for a counter trend bounce in major U-S-INDICES and during the week we actually got that bounce.
and once that counter trend vounce ended we got a very strong turn lower  and things did unfolded exactly in the manner in which we were looking at.

So lets straight away discussed on the technical setup for S&P and NASDAQ.

S&P

Holding 5340 we were looking for a counter trend rally towards the zone of 5570-5610  initially index successfully managed to hold above 5340 and on Thursday made high of 5566 very close towards the lower edge of our projected zone.
The decline from Thursdays high has been extremely furious where we saw index dropping from 5566 to 5302 in just 24,hours.

Hens after such a sharp decline market would require some time to stabilise.
All though my target for this move for now is at 5200 on downside  I dont expect further one way decline towards 5200.
with vix at 2024 highs    we have to be prepared for extreme voletility on both sides.

eventualy 5200 will come but that still wont be the end of the decline.

Once 5200 breaks index would attempt a further extendtion of its decline towards 5020 which happens to be its 45 degree angle from its july high of 5669.

In my last weeks post i clearly mentioned that on 24th,of,JULY something very significant has happened and that has that potential to trigger a large scale reversal.
If during this decline if SPX drops below 5020 which i am sure it will  then that would officialy conferm my view.
Would discuss this in further detail when SPX breaks 5020.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

On NASDAQ we were looking for a test of 18100 during the counter trend rally.
but index managed the move higher only till 17800.


Post that it too went for a wild ride on downside where it made low of 16582 on friday.

16800 was a key support here.
As long as index manages to hold below 16800 it would decline further towards 16200 which happens to be its 45 degree angle from its july high.
Once 16200 breaks we should get this index towards the January 2024 low.
Not immidiately but gradually.

Here too voletility is likely to stay extremely high so better not to get carried away with major swings.
A 2%+ up or a down day from here should be a regular affair.

On TIME front  5th,August Which is tomorrow is going to be a very important cycle date,
As i discussed this in indian markets section  above  will repeat it once again     that if indices fails to sustain below 5th,August low then most probably markets would either consolidate or attempt a pullback.
So plan your short term trades accordingly.

coming to YEN now.

Last week i discussed the importance of YEN for the global financial markets.
Unfortunately many in INDIA doesn’t even understand the concept of a carry trade.
I tried to explained that in last weeks post.
but majority still felt that such macro things doesn’t matter for INDIAN MARKETS.

Anyways my job as an analyst is to highlight potential risks which could impact our trades and investments.
My job is not to convince everyone to consider and focus on all points which are discussed on this platform.

Now as far as YEN is cunserned level of 143 on USDJPY cross  is absolutely critical.
Holding 143 things can stabilise but in case for any reason 143 breaks then that can trigger margin calls on all risky assets globally.
Take some time out and research on why that could happen.

thats it for now.
Lets see how things goes post 5th,August.

there is lot to discuss today so lets straight away move ahead and start with INDIAN MARKETS first.

For INDIAN MARKETS BUDGET was the significant EVENT and this tuesday that finally passed.
For NIFTY as I had been discussing constantly that   level of 24,000 is an ultimate support and as long as that support is holding things are likely to stay fine for NIFTY and any decline which holds the level of 24,000 would only be considered as a normal pullback.
No scope for a meaningful REVERSAL or correction as long as 24,000 is held.
On TIME front INDIAN MARKETS in next few days would be approaching a critical turn window so dispite NIFTY making a fresh high I wouldn’t be looking for further long trades to chase this INDEX on higher side.

because the recent fresh high which NIFTY made on FRIDAY came on back of few unavoidable inter market divergences which cannot be ignored.
these divergences are strong enough to restrain the INDEX from generating a trending move on higher side.

In INDIAN MARKETS we have BANKS and RELIANCE which have broken their medium term supports and on the other hand we have AUTO I.T. and ITC which are in a very strong shape technicaly.
So rather going after the NIFTY either on long or short side,
an ideal profitable trade would be to sell BANKS and RELIANCE on rallies,
and,
buy AUTO and ITC on dipps.

I.T. should be an avoid because thats at a very important resistance.

still for NIFTY on upside 25200 is going to be a very strong resistance.

for the entire month of july so far NIFTY has been in 3.5% band so if you are a trend follower then you have not made money on NIFTY in july dispite index making a fresh high ebery week.

Unfortunately we are currently in a state of MARKET where an UPTREND is classified into 2 categories.
In which the primary category belongs to a kind of PRICE action which we saw during the month of JUNE.
Where the price action is very strong which is actually a kind of price action to trade as a trader.

And the other category would be best classified as a choppy uptrend.
where the INDEX does continue to make higher highss.
but the price action in this phase mostly stays sideways.


And during this phase there is nothing to do much as a trader.

accept the month of june entire 2024 does falls under this second category of UPTREND.

Just for reference if you take the month of june out then there are less then 15 trading days where NIFTY have rissen more then 1.5% on EOD basis.

so the point is there is nothing to get exited post fridays price action.

I dont know how many of you remember that  on 1st,of,MARCH,2024 we did got a similar kind of an up day and post that market really didn’t do much for the rest of the month.
1st,MARCH was meanwhile the first day of a new series and 26th,july too was also a first day of the new series.
so connect the DOTS.

now lets move on from INDIAN MARKETS and discuss the setup for U-S-MARKETS

The stock market got a boost at the end of a wild week after key economic data bolstered perpetual speculation about when the Federal Reserve will cut rates. Every major group in the S&P 500 rose Friday on bets that a Fed easing cycle will begin in September, just in time to keep fueling Corporate America and the bull market. That market meanwhile seems to be broadening beyond that narrow group of companies we’ve become familiar with. While big tech has enjoyed massive gains this year, the so-called concentration risk has come to the forefront for many, especially given the disappointing start of the megacap earnings season. Investors who for months saw fewer alternatives to a tight group of market winners are suddenly branching out.


but dont make a mistake to consider the week as a normal week.
Something very significant happenned on WEDNESDAY  which would have painful consequences for overall market going forward.

so lets go through what just happened on WEDNESDAY.

Wednesday might have been frightening if you are the type of investor who follows day-to-day action. The S&P 500 SPX pulled back 2.3% for the day, while the tech-focused Nasdaq-100 index NDX fell 3.7%.
this 2%+ kind of down day on SPX happenned after 507 calendar days and after 356 trading days.
So its something which was the biggest take away from the week gone by.
Not only that CBOE VIX too was up by 22% in a single day on WEDNESDAY and such rise on VIX actually happenned after 13th,june,2022,
So take some time off and think what these things are pointing at?


Obviously things are not going to rollover overnight but look to consider such signals as a warning for a large scale trend reversal.

Coming to levels now

S&P

On 19th,july I shared level of 5510 as a breakdown level for S&P,500 and a downside target objectives below 5510 were kept at 5425 and 5340 on cash.
However on expected lines INDEX broke 5510 and achieved our target of 5425.
but 5340 is still yet to be achieved and my sense is 5340 would hold for few days and for now INDEX could attempt a counter trend bounce which could carry index towards the zone of 5570-5610,on upside and post this counter trend bounce I would expect S&P to register a furious decline which could drag the index towards 5200 rapidly.
In all probabilities I am not looking for a new high on S&P.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

As mentioned earlier 18,000 was a significant support for NASDAQ and a break of that have almost triggered a mini colaps.


frankly we were looking for a test of 17400 for this leg but index went on to test almost 17,000 which from the top have almost given up 9%.
Now thats a noteworthy decline in just 15 odd days.


On downside another major support is placed at 16800.
Holding 16800 this INDEX too could register a counter trend bounce which could take it towards 18100 and post this counter trend bounce on NASDAQ too we would be looking for a rapid and furious decline which should drag it towards 16000 and lower.

and here too we are not looking for a higher highs above its high registered so far.

so far accept S&P and NASDAQ we do not have a TOP conformation for DJI and RUSSEL 2000.

specialy the DJI dispite the recent pullback there are no conformations for a TOP yet.
RUSSEL is strong but its performence is unlikely to impact other major INDICES.
If the tech sector is turning down then other indices too would join it on downside either sooner or later.

along with tech sector a risk off signal is coming from FOREX MARKETS as well.

In foreign exchange, the balance appears to be turning decisively against carry traders — investors who borrow in low interest-rate currencies like the Japanese yen and park in currencies with higher rates, such as the Mexican peso. It’s a trade that works beautifully unless the currency in which you’re borrowing starts to gain.
the recent strength of Japanese yen against the $ is one of the major reason behind the recent risk off environment which have added pressure in equity markets of U-s and EUROPE.

Yen is more important because the epicenter of the global carry trade has been coming from JAPAN.
Post GFC hedge funds have used JPY to operate the entire ecosystem of this carry trade.
So far it was working fine because intrest rates in JAPAN were below 0 and as of now they are still at 0.

but now BOJ have indicated that they are ready to raise rates.

market is expecting this rate hike in SEPTEMBER but there is a thin possiblity that rate hike can happen as early as next Wednesday where BOJ monitory policy outcome is due.
even,though a july hike is less expected but a SEPTEMBER hike is a done deal.
and here is where things get more intresting.
because in SEPTEMBER itself FOMC would be going for a rate cut.
So there is going to be a policy missmatch in 2 major economies of this planet.

so this policy missmatch is going to make things more uncertain for the YEN and along with it   this uncertainty would spill over to other risk assets as well.

Hens its high time that we should stay cautious at highs.
So for now lets end this here.

https://ganninsides.com/2024/07/16/nifty-successfully-navigates-the-critical-window-on-time-front/

supports shifts higher

NIFTY PATTERN support have further shifted higher at 24480 on spot.

Other then that nothing really have changed from what I did discussed in above post.
BUDGET next week is still the most significant EVENT for this MARKET so next week is going to be absolutely critical for overall texture of this MARKET.
Need to keep an eye on broader markets to get early indications for a trend change.
As I have been discussing here since 10th,of,july  a trend change on NIFTY is warranted but would trigger only with the break of a PATTERN breakdown.

Currently we have a best chance to get that.
lets see.

since early july its BANKS verses I.T.

so far we have seen a tussle between BANKS and I.T.
BANKS have been absolutely sideways since the start of july and I.T. on other hand habe done remarkably well since early july.

NIFTY bank has been going through a phase of distribution but still as long as 51600 is held on spot ongoing distribution phase can go on but if 51600 breaks INDEX would be preparing for a decent pullback in coming days.

NIFTY I.T. is the strongest index among all NSE INDICES.
But closer to 41000 this INDEX too is reaching a saturation point if it turns lower from here from next week along with BANKS them that would be a double blow for overall market.
do watch out for that.

in INDIA we are looking for a turn  but in U.S. that turn has already happened.

As discussed earlier 18000 on NASDAQ COMPOSITE was an important support and on Wednesday we have seen that imdex break below its support.
So finally we got that reversal on NASDAQ but other indices are yet to confirm that.

for S&P that support level is at 5510 and as of now thats still intact.
Once it breaks below 5510 we should get it lower towards 5425 and 5340 in next couple of weeks.
for now better to wait until 5510 actually breaks.

so lets leave it here for now.

gann insides weekly MARKET UPDATE

As we discussed on this TUESDAY

UPTREND continues to stay fermly intact for MARKETS

more or less markets did what we were expecting,
things are likely to get more intresting from next week.

lets discuss NIFTY first

NIFTY during the week continued with its trend of higher highs.
the overall weekly range was bit narrow but thats not a sufficient reason to think other way.
On tuesday I shared the level of 23250 as a critical pattern support and a trailing stop loss for all existing longs,
so as long as this level is held the price structure of NIFTY is likely to stay BULLISH,
If in case 23250 breaks then INDEX would enter in a corrective territory which would drag price towards 22850 on spot.

On TIME front as we discussed on tuesday   for NIFTY potential turn dates are on 21&24,june

the manner in which NIFTY turned lower from fridays high could actually trigger a trend reversal in NIFTY,
the amount of voletility which we saw in fridays session have giben us preliminary indications for a direction change.
since FRIDAY was a turn date and on MONDAY we hav another turn date so a probability of a turn is significantly higher.

still we should wait for market confirmation before taking trading positions.
and we shall get that conformation once INDEX starts to sustain below lowest intraday low of FRIDAY and MONDAY.

for medium term

On weekly charts significant support on NIFTY is placed at 22900  so as long as 22900 is held on weekly closing basis  the broad trend for NIFTY would continue to stay BULLISH.
so irrespective of intra-week voletility if INDEX fails to end the week below 22900 then INDEX would continue to make new higher highs post minor pullbacks.
A TOP cannot be established as long as key supports are held on weekly charts.

now lets move forward 2 S&P;500

S&P  continued with its formations of higher highs during the week but as we discussed on this TUESDAY  on price front 5530 would be a point of resistance,
On Thursday morning it tested the level of 5505 and post that INDEX vitnesed a pullback.
As of now we would have to consider it as a normal pullback  but if INDEX starts to register a daily close below 5400 mark then that would trigger a minor degree REVERSAL  which should drag S&P towards 5280 on downside.

On TIME front next week on 24th&25th,june we have a strong turn dates for all major U-S-INDICES so we would have to look for the combined intraday low of both these days very closely.

If price and time meets their criteria for a trend reversal next week then  that would trigger a type of a REVERSAL which BEARS had been waiting for since past several months.

1 very critical thing which happened during the week was a potential REVERSAL in NVIDIA.

until now everyone who has been a part of the ecosystem of financial markets would be aware on a fact that entire tech sector in U-S is depended on the trend and trajectory of one stock which is NVIDIA.
a section of human being on this planet have started to think that future of our planet would depend on how much more NVIDIA can deliver with its advanced AI chips.
Frankly everyone has turned so future focused that present reality doesnt really matter.

jokes apart  it looks like something has ended at 140 on NVIDIA.

Just to be more sure we would be looking for a print of 118 on NVIDIA if stock prints the level of 118 then it would register a medium term reversal which would have targets of 98 and even 87 during next few months.

A turn in NVIDIA would practically mean a turn in entire market.
so do watch out for that.

thats it for now,
there is lot to watch out for next week.
intresting week coming up.

Trend continues to stay fermly strong for NIFTY  as we have been discussing since 6th,june.

So all trades still has to be on long side.
Anticipating a trend change in a LOW VIX environment is not going to work out.
Hens as professional traders look to chase INDICES on long side atleast till market register a change of some kind either on PRICE front or on TIME front.

so lets quickly discuss critical points on PRICE and TIME front.

PRICE

NIFTY

for NIFTY  all price patterns are bullish so the easy thing is to respect patterns and stay with long trades with trailing stops.

until friday our trailing stops were placed at 23020 which from today would be revised higher to 23,250,
so keep it short look to buy all dipps which ends above 23250 on spot,
initial signs for REVERSAL would only come when the given level is broken.
On upside 24000 is a gennuan resistance so if trailing stops are held most probably INDEX should print 24000 before making a turn.

S&P

S&P after clearing its major resistance of 5350 have extended its rally further.
Higher highs should still continue as long as PRICE sustains above 5350  but turn cautious if INDEX starts to give a daily close below 5400.
On upside 5530 is a point of pattern resistance,
watch out closely what INDEX  does when it reaches there.

TIME

On TIME front as far as INDICES holds last fridays low on closing basis setup would continue to project further higher highs.
specificly for INDIAN MARKETS 21st and 24th,june are very critical turn dates.
So watch out for a potential trend change closer to these dates.

similarly for U-S-INDICES potential trend change dates would be on 24th and 25th,june.
So from early next week expect voletility to return back which would put pressure on markets.

thats it for now.

EXIT POLE projections are out  and that has veen in line with what market was expecting.


markets expectations for NDA was between 370-400  and EXIT POLES on an average have given the projections of 361 in favor of NDA.


so on 4th,june if NDA scores around 360 then that would satisfy markets as far as expectations are conserned.


Anything under 350 would be slightly negative for MARKETS.
Lets see, as of now its only projections  so the EVENT risk still would continue to persist  atleast till Tuesday afternoon.

If in case NDA gets above 400 then that would be a positive surprise for markets.


for markets during the course of next 2 days more then its technical setup direction would entirely depend on how much more can NDA get above that 350 mark.


atleast till Wednesday afternoon or till Thursday morning election results shall dominate market trends,


but post thursday morning markets would move forward from elections and markets should get bac to basics.

Anyways at the end of the day markets moves on corporate earnings.
Yes political equations does matter to some extent  but above everything else for long term its always earnings which drives STOCKS higher or lower.

If you dig in further   then earnings too moves in CYCLES just like everything else in this world.

before i come to NIFTY levels would like to make one final point here

for the first time in indias history we have seen top  government officials openly and publicly commenting on markets reaction on election results day.
Since elections started on 19th,APRIL we have seen  PRIME MINISTER, FINANCE MINISTER and even HOME MINISTER in their several interviews reluctantly saying that MARKET would break all records on 4th,june,


SO there must have been some arrangements done for that we dont know what exactly they have planned but it would be intresting to see how top officials intent to manage markets.
Next 48,hours shall be intresting and exciting.

Anyways lets move on and discuss critical levels to track on NIFTY

https://ganninsides.com/2024/05/26/setup-for-the-final-week-before-that-all-important-election-results/

Last week we discussed 2 support levels for NIFTY

1,was 22908 on closing basis  and 2,was 22786 on spot which was a pattern support.

During the week we saw NIFTY breaking both its supports and turn lower towards its pattern objective of 22575,
Our next downside objective was 22355 but it dint went there and because I have said in last weeks post itself that whatever trades you have  look to exit them on 31st,MAY,
Obviously you cannot go in an EVENT with one sided unhedged trades,
and for investors i also advocated to hedge portfolios with SEPTEMBER puts.
If you have done that then carry on with those puts,
because those puts would make a lot of sense once this election dust settles down.

For next week levels are unlikely to make sense till Wednesday but still on upside 22850 is going to be a key pivot,
above 22850 we would be looking for further higher highs closer towards 23400-23,600.
Lets see how markets open tomorrow.